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NCAA: March Madness predictions

Roar Rookie
21st February, 2018
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LSU forward Ben Simmons (25), of Australia, puts the ball up for two points in heavy traffic between Kentucky forwards Derek Willis (35) and Isaac Humphries (15) during the second half of an NCAA college basketball game in Baton Rouge, La. (AP Photo/Bill Feig, File)
Roar Rookie
21st February, 2018
2

The current NCAA mens basketball season has been one of the most tumultuous seasons off the court in recent memory.

Louisville have just vacated their 2013 NCAA title, ten college coaches and company employees were arrested on financial charges, Tom Izzo and Michigan State have been caught up in the Larry Nassar scandal, and many experts believe these incidents could lead to a domino effect that will taint the sport forever.

However, the madness has not exclusively been off the court. This season has been one of the most hotly contested in recent years, highlighted by the fact that seven of the top ten teams in the AP Poll’s Top 25 teams lost this past week – and 15 of the 25 – ended up on the wrong side of the scoreboard.

In early April, one team will be crowned the winner of the 2017-18 NCAA Mens Basketball Championship, or ‘March Madness’ as it is colloquially known. Here are my top two picks, as well as a smoky, and a prediction on the team that most Australians should be barracking for – the Saint Mary’s Gaels.

Top 2: Villanova Wildcats
One of the most consistent teams in the nation over the past decade, the current Wildcat team boast two dynamic guards in Jalen Brunson and Mikal Bridges, and are also an experienced team – with key players in their rotation playing a part in their 2016 NCAA Tournament success.

Although they have lost to St Johns and Providence in the last two weeks, they are playing in a tough Big East conference where off games will be pounced on. A recent win against #4 Xavier has kept them within reach of the Big East Conference title and highlighted their ability to win big games.

Prediction – Champions

Virginia Cavaliers
The Cavaliers are the team to support if you are an admirer of tough, gritty defence. Coach Tony Bennett has for years made Charlottesville, VA one of the toughest places to create some decent offense, but this year many pundits are calling Virginia the ‘best defensive team of the decade’.

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At the time of writing, the Cavaliers’ opponents are scoring 52.7 points per game, almost five points per game less than the second best defensive team in the nation, Cincinnati. The team are 13-1 in the highly competitive ACC, and are cruising to a seventh regular season title.

If Kyle Guy and Devon Hall can provide consistent offense, and Virginia smothers their NCAA tournament opponents like they have their ACC foes, they will waltz into the Final Four.

Prediction – Runners Up

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(AAP Image/Joe Castro)

Smokey – Wichita State Shockers
Akin to their nickname, Wichita State could shock some high-calibre teams during March Madness.

The Shockers’ transition from the Missouri Valley Conference to the more highly regarded American Conference this year has gone relatively smoothly, although not without one or two hitches along the way.

Gregg Marshall’s team first came into nationwide conversation in 2013 when they made arguably the most improbable run to the Final Four during the 21st century. In the years since, they have dominated the MVC, earning automatic bids to the tournament, however have been unlucky in recent years to encounter star Kentucky teams twice in the early rounds.

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This year Wichita State are sitting in equal second in the American Conference, however they recently had a confident boosting away win over a #5 Cincinnati outfit. Losses to Houston and Temple, both bubble teams as well as a loss to SMU were a part of a mid-season lull for the Shockers, however they are one team that every team will want to avoid in the early rounds of the NCAA tournament.

Led by sophomore Landry Shamet, Wichita State have seven or eight players who can score 20 on any given night, making them a tough team to guard when they are switched on.

Prediction – Elite 8

Saint Mary’s Gaels
One can’t publish an article about NCAA Basketball in Australia without mention of the Gaels. With six Australians on the roster, and alumni featuring Matthew Dellavedova and Patty Mills, Moraga CA may as well have a four-digit post code.

The 2017-18 version of the Gaels is arguably the best they’ve ever produced. Led by two Australian seniors – a potential All-American in Centre Jock Landale, and crafty Point Guard Emmett Naar, Saint Mary’s were ranked #22 in the pre-season poll, and have held on to a top 25 spot for the vast majority of the year.

Until recently, the Gaels were flying – a prized away win in Spokane against arch-rivals Gonzaga was part of the longest winning streak in the country (19), as well as the longest away winning streak in the country (13).

However, the Zags got their revenge back in Moraga, where they stifled Jock Landale, who only had four shots and two made baskets – a far cry from his 12/15 performance against Gonzaga earlier in the year.

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Last week, the Gaels also had a poor loss against San Francisco, which made them a ‘bubble’ team for the NCAA tournament in some experts eyes. However, if they win out in regular season play, as well as put in a decent showing in the WCC Tournament, they should have a berth in the tournament.

If they are to progress in the tournament, the dominant duo of Landale (21.9 ppg, 10.4 rpg) and Naar (8.4 apg – second in the nation) will have to play better than they did against Gonzaga the second time round. Key pieces Calvin Hermanson and Tanner Krebs were vital in their two tournament games last year, and will need to be on their game – knocking down perimeter shots when Landale is doubled.

Prediction – #7 seed – Progress to second Round of the NCAA Tournament

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