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All serious rugby students know the ball stays in play more now.
In the early 1990s, Test or elite club rugby sasw the ball in play for an average of about 28 minutes per game.
As fitness rose, passes went to hand more, rules changed, and referees employed longer advantages, the ball-in-play (BIP) statistics increased steadily to where they are now: 35 of 80 minutes, across most competitions.
In Test rugby, between relatively well-balanced teams, there is very little variance in BIP.
For instance, in the 2017 Rugby Championship, 11 of the 12 matches had between 32 and 37 BIP – the average was 34 minutes, 39 seconds.
The wild thriller between the All Blacks and the Springboks was an outlier, when the BIP was a whopping 44 minutes (macho men Kieran Read and Eben Etzebeth were the culprits, both refusing to kick the ball out in the ultra-long first half).
The Six Nations is often maligned as slow, trench warfare with a glut of scrums. But over the years, BIP has risen even faster than in the Rugby Championship, mirroring the BIP statistics of the Rugby World Cup. In 2017, the ball stayed in play for almost 39 minutes in the Six Nations.
The most-scrummed game was France versus Wales (20 scrums, which ate up 27 per cent of playing time). The least was Scotland versus Ireland (only six scrums, or 9 per cent of playing time). The norm was ten scrums per game, or 16 per cent.
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Last season’s Super Rugby had a BIP average equal to the Rugby Championship. In fact, only 13 games out of 140 fell outside the 31-39 minute zone of BIP: four were 40-plus (three of those mysteriously involved the Sharks) and the rest were 30 or less.
A disproportionate number of the sub-31 minute matches (five of nine) involved the disbanded Force, and the Reds also tended to keep BIP low.
The highest BIP (42) in the whole season was in the Crusaders versus Highlander tilt in the playoffs.
The lowest two BIP matches were both derbies, between the Waratahs and the Force (28 minutes each time).
The Stormers averaged the highest BIP, with many games at 39-40 BIP minutes, but in the playoffs, tightened up.
The new rules have actually boosted BIP, and when the Boks went on their end of year tour, three of their Tests were 40-plus BIP. Not a bad tactic when the visitors are on their last gasp in the non-aligned global season.
Playing high BIP when you are not ready can be a disaster, as we saw with the Jaguares last year. Knock-ons can proliferate, missed tackles cascade into points allowed, and as every ex-player knows, when you are tired, you become dumb (cards and penalties mount) and less brave (tackles missed, the high ball spilled).
The average BIP might be a sweet spot for the Boks, who handled the visiting French relatively easily last June in three straight Tests, keeping to 34 minutes.
The bad news for non-Kiwis? New Zealand teams appear to be comfortable winning at 28 BIP or 40 BIP.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.