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We haven’t yet seen a football kicked in anger in 2018, but already the trade talk is heating up as yesterday the news broke that St Kilda are looking to be a major player in the race for restricted free agent Tom J Lynch.
The move comes as something of a shock – not because it doesn’t make sense for St Kilda to have a red hot go at the free agency market, but because Lynch is a player who, while elite, doesn’t necesarilly make the most sense for their list.
Last month I wrote at length about the Lynch situation. In addition to putting forward my tip for where he’ll play in 2018, I said this about the Saints – “North Melbourne and St Kilda have money to burn, but a big key forward isn’t necessarily the most logical player type for either to pursue.”
St Kilda have No.1 draft pick Paddy McCartin (21), Josh Bruce (25) and Tim Membrey (23) on the list already as tall or tall-ish forwards. Bruce has kicked 124 goals in the last three years, Membrey 82 in the last two. McCartin is still finding his feet.
There are those who would say that even those three might not fit perfectly into the same forward line together – adding 199cm Lynch into the mix just seems unrealistic, and very much the opposite direction from the one footy seems to be trending in.
The biggest concern with this play then has to be the potential flow-on effect. Membrey is a player the Saints will keep in the lineup for certain, but going hard at Lynch feels like a vote of no-confidence in either McCartin, or Bruce, or both.
Bringing in Lynch seems like it would almost certainly result in one or both of them being pushed out of the club, a result which would turn securing a big-name free agent like Lynch into something of a Phyrric victory for the Saints.
Personally if I were them I’d be looking at someone like Andrew Gaff instead who, while he wouldn’t make as much of a splash in the news headlines as Lynch, would be a much better fit for the club in terms of offering them some attributes they don’t already have.
(Photo by Daniel Carson/AFL Media/Getty Images)
St Kilda’s fresh interest is not the only news in terms of the market for Tom Lynch’s services though.
Gold Coast have reportedly stumped up the cash to offer Lynch a deal that would be worth as much as $1.5 million per year for seven years, instantly making him the highest paid player in the competition.
That would all come before the AFL offers Lynch some extra money outside the cap as an ambassador to promote the game in Queensland, which would likely boost him to $2 million or more per season.
Gillon McLachlan said on Thursday that the AFL won’t make Lynch an ambassador role offer until he locks in a new deal at the Suns, even saying the possibility of extra pay outside the salary cap “will have no bearing on whether Tom Lynch re-signs or not.”
Sure thing Gillon. Whatever you say.
It’s an offer that no Victorian club is going to be able to top but plenty are going to have a crack. We’ve known for a little while that Richmond were interested and Damien Hardwick openly said as much during the week.
“You’ve got to have a look at it. Whether he suits our list and the dynamic of where our group’s at, then we’ll look at it from that way,” said Hardwick.
A bit understated from Dimma there. From the rumours that are going around, it sounds like Richmond are knee deep in this one.
Along the same lines as the St Kilda news, it was interesting to note as well that North Melbourne chairman Ben Buckley says the club will have another red hot crack at free agency this year.
No names were mentioned, and it’s hard to tell exactly who is likely to be on North’s radar – but Lynch, being the most high-profile free agent available, will surely be discussed.
The big question that has to be asked about St Kilda (and maybe North) is whether or not them entering the race is at all consequential.
Both of them have more salary cap room available than probably any other club in Victoria, but where do you think a star free agent goes: a small club that can offer more money, or a big club that has won a flag recently?
For the sake of an equal competition I’d like to believe that the Saints and North have more of a role to play in the free agency market than forcing other clubs to up their bids before inevitably missing out… but I don’t see a lot of reason to.
At the moment, I’d wager Richmond and Hawthorn are still the front-runners for Lynch’s services should he resist Leprechaun Gillon’s pot of gold, and if so then it could be a dramatic tussle between the two as the balance of power shifts among big Victorian clubs.
(AAP Image/Tracey Nearmy)
Some other trade-related news during the week was that an unnamed Victorian club has reportedly made West Coast’s Jeremy McGovern an offer of $7 million over six years – significantly more lucrative than the reported $4 million over five that is reportedly on the table from the Eagles.
Where is the offer coming from? All we can do at the moment is speculate.
Melbourne can probably be ruled out having just recruited Jake Lever. Both Geelong and Hawthorn seem very unlikely to spend that kind of cash on a single player. Richmond don’t need him and will be more focused on Tom Lynch.
Carlton and North both probably have the salary cap room available not just to offer that much but to heavily frontload it – they’d have to weigh up whether McGovern is young enough to make sense for their lists.
St Kilda obviously are in the market for a big free agent and their defence certainly isn’t a finished product just yet. Essendon also could be a possbility. But both clubs already have a decent number of tall prospects, and you’d think they’ll target midfielders instead.
The Western Bulldogs could be a serious possibility – they made a big offer to Jake Lever last year and although they picked up Jackson Trengove and Aaron Naughton this offseason, could still theoretically fit a player like McGovern in. Luke Beveridge would be a big fan of his versatility.
Purely on a basis of which club needs a player like him the most, you’d think Collingwood are a good chance to be behind this one though. The only question mark on it is just how well placed their salary cap is, and whether or not this would mean they’re giving up on Tom Lynch.
Something to keep an eye on certainly. All we can say with certainty for now is that if the reported numbers of the respective offers are accurate, then McGovern will find it very hard to turn down his suitors.
(Photo by Paul Kane/Getty Images)
Lastly it’s worth mentioning that there’s been a flurry of news in recent days about ideas like a loan agreement, or a mid-season trade period, and also plenty of talk for a while now about a longer trade period or live trading on draft night.
It’s hard to know what to make of this and personally I wouldn’t be surprised if nothing much comes of it (given that nothing much has come of it every other time these ideas have been brought up). I’d be very surprised if any big changes came through that would take effect in 2018.
It does seem clear though that the AFL are searching for ways to increase the amount of player movement around the league. As someone who loves trade period I do find some of the ideas being put forward a exciting – but at the same time I worry whether it’s really a good thing for the game.
Time will tell, and if a mid-year trade period is brought in it will be fascinating to see what kind of impact it might have on the 2018 season, and future years to come.