‘Statistically’ speaking they are a 1.2 goal better side with JK in the team. You shouldn’t claim something as ‘statistically’ if its not backed up by stats.

I would take Lynch, Patton or Brown over all three you mentioned.

While your premise might be right Cam (and I tend to agree with the notion that Brads time might be up) you have let the cynical nature and your obvious personal gripe clout the article.

I know you’re still bitter about last year’s final, but it’s time to move on!

A decent effort but no way does Lynch go 5 in this group. He’s a flip of the coin with Parker for the number one pick. My top 5 would be:
1) Parker
2) Lynch
3) Heppell
4) Prestia
5) Gaff

Two glaring omissions for me. One you have already touched on in Fyfe (absolutely criminal to select Cripps over him) and Dylan Shiel. A much better selection than either Viney or Hannebery.

I’m glad you have also picked Cameron over ‘The Package’. A much more complete all round player than Stringer.

So you’re comparing contested possessions, clearances and tackles between an inside mid to an outside half forward.. what would you expect those stats to look like? Very selective indeed.

He offers little to nothing around the ground dispute what you and many other rose-coloured wearing glasses eagles supports think. His ruck work is good, but most certainly not the best. Give me Goldy or Sandi any day over Naitanui. To think otherwise, you obviously can’t tell the difference between a Sherrin and a golf ball.

Nic Nat still the most overrated player in the history of the AFL.

What a bitter old Richmond supporter.

I’m sure Damian Hardwick is a wonderful coach with all his elimination final losses..

You should have little confidence in that prediction.. considering you picked Brisbane to make the eight last year. That one didn’t turn out well for you.

Good in depth article Josh, but I don’t think you have concentrated on the main area of concern for Richmond to become a premiership side. Their biggest issue is their leadership, not their age profile. Perhaps you are assuming this will develop by 2018 but on current evidence I don’t see this being the case. Trent Cotchin was embarrassing in last year’s final, he went into hiding quicker then ‘El Chapo’ did when he escaped from prison.

If Richmond want to win a final, let alone a premiership this is the key area. They have shown on numerous occasions throughout the regular season they can match it with the best teams in the comp, but when that pressure intensifies in a finals situation they crumble. Trent Cotchin must step down as the captain. Not only for the team to progress but for his own personal game as well. Some people just aren’t built to be leaders, and this guy is one of them. He has shown what he is capable of when not burdened with the captaincy. They need to give the captaincy to Riewoldt or Rance while they meticulously pick and develop their next leader, much like North Melbourne are doing with Jack Ziebell.

It sure is pathetic.. shouldn’t have been a fine nor 3 points suspended for 12 months. Absolutely ridiculous.

It been touched on a bit by others but to elaborate.

North’s list is different to many others who have been in a similar situation regarding age profile. The difference being free agency. Where in the past teams have had to give up picks to get older more experienced players (i.e. ‘top up their list’) for a premiership tilt North haven’t had to do this. Dal Santo, Waite and Higgins have all come through free agency. North have taken all their early round picks into the draft every year under Brad Scott. This is distinctly different from teams in similar situations in the past, and certainly different to what Geelong did last year.

While they are built for the now, when it comes time for the older players to hang up the boots the core youth is already there. Whether they can step up and lead the team towards another premiership tilt is anyone’s guy. Time will tell.

When I created my account on this site I tried to make my password “RichmondLeadership” but the system said it was too weak.

You lost me at “make no mistake, Richmond can win this year’s premiership”.

I would pick any elite player (or someone I believe will become elite) who’s 25 or under.

Just off the top of my head the five mentioned in this article so Stringer, Bontempelli, Wines, O’Meara and Hogan. Then in no particular order Dyson Heppell, Liam Shieils, Jeremy Cameron, Isaac Heeney, Luke Parker, Dustin Martin, Jeremy McGovern, Adam Treloar, Jack Ziebell, Michael Walters, Chad Wingard, Patrick Cripps and Patrick Dangerfield. Not to mention the best of them all Nat Fyfe. All these players have at least 5-10 years of elite football left in them. There’s probably more who I have missed.

Then players over 25 who I would still pick before Ablett would be Scott Pendlebury, Joel Selwood, Todd Goldstein, Lance Franklin, Robbie Gray and both Josh Kennedys (WCE and Sydney). Again there’s probably more but I can’t be bothered analysing every playing list.

Just off the top of my head and I came up with 25 players.

I’m not sure where you are coming from questioning this? Ablett is past his prime. He only has 1 possibly 2 years (save that he can even get back to full fitness) at the top level. If we were talking picking someone for just one season, than obviously my list would be different. But right now, Ablett has little left to offer past the next couple of years.

How are you even considering Ablett in this conversation? So you would take a guy who is past his prime, now injury prone and at best will give you another two solid seasons over a 24 year old who will be as good, if not better than what Ablett was? I could list another 20 players I would pick before Ablett.

Not a chance. Stringer is an absolute freak and on another level to Cripps. He would be my second pick if I could choose any player from another team (first obviously being Fyfe).

Firstly and most importantly I’m not a Freo supporter – I just think they are the best team in the comp this year. In regards to your other points:

1) Ablett was the best player. Right now a fit Ablett vs a fit Fyfe there’s no comparison – Fyfe is clearly better (comparing them in their prime is a different story though).
2) I really don’t get your sentiment (which is shared by many I might add). Why does he need to find ‘two more goals’? They finished minor premiers last year and were one atrociously umpired game away from another GF. He could also very easily be a two time premiership coach had it not been for a shocking bounce of the ball in 2010 or an individual masterclass from Chapman in 2009 – had he won those two premierships I wonder how he would be perceived (rhetorical question)? He has done a much better job at putting his teams in a position to win a premiership than all bar one.
3) Agreed – but like any team injuries can derail a whole season. Freo will need a good run with injuries, especially to Pav and Fyfe then there every chance.
4) Again, this applies to any team. There must be pressure for spots and at least 30 plus players capable of walking straight into the best 22. Freos depth is as good as any though.

Who’s their biggest challenger? Well it won’t be the Hawks. There in for a rapid decline and will struggle to make top four. WCE? Perhaps but with a tougher draw and teams putting more time into them over the preseason they won’t have it as easy this year. I guess time will tell.

Your analysis is certainly better than your gambling problem Rick. You make some very valid points.

For mine, Freo are the team to beat this year (save for Pav staying relatively injury free). They have by far the best player in the league and in my opinion the best tactical coach in the league. While Ross’s game plan can be atrocious to watch at times, it will deliver Freo their first premiership. And you’re correct with the Hawks, they certainly like to pile the score on once the games over (especially against the weaker sides). They will slide this year, will struggle to make top four.

And while we’re at it, what do you expect from the cats this year? Personally, I can’t see them improving. They’re all smoke and mirrors, still just a bunch of mediocre players (well, at least with one star player now).

How is any of the last three seasons an improvement on the previous season? You lack leaders who stand up when the pressure is on, and its the reason I don’t see this Richmond side going any further than they already have.

Agreed with your points Josh.

Garner is a must in my team. Given everyone is fit and available here is my 22.

B: Hansen, Thompson, Atley
HB: Macmillan, Tarrant, Dal Santo
C: Higgins, Ziebell, Wells
HF: Harvey, Petrie, Garner
F: Thomas, Waite, Brown
Foll: Goldstein, Swallow, Cunnington
Int: Jacobs, Anderson, Wright, Gibson

It feels wrong not to have Firrito in the team but I’m struggling to find a spot for him this year. Thompson and Tarrant take the key defender spots, Hansen playing the ‘third man’ role and small defenders in Atley, Macmillan and Wright. You would probably even put Macdonald in front of him now.

Unlucky to miss out is Mason Wood. He’s going to be a star. Next in line is Kayne Turner and Trent Dumont.

I don’t think they will take either Francis or Milera. Essendon need another key forward and midfield depth. Francis and Milera don’t fill these needs. One thing Essendon certainly don’t need is a key defender, and that’s what I ultimately see Francis being while Milera is a half forward.

I think they take either Curnow or Weideman (and on reflection I’m actually beginning to think the latter). Then it has to be the best available midfielder. If Melbourne for whatever reason don’t select Parish at 3 then the equation becomes easier. But if goes as expected I think Oliver is the next best midfielder in the draft (outside the academy players).

You could be right that they pick two key forwards but I’m not sure why they would do that when they already have Daniher and desperately need more midfield depth? If they are selecting the ‘best available’ player this may well be the case though.

If I’m Carlton and Weideman gets through to them 8 them I’m taking the risk on Ryan Burton at 11. He has obvious injury concerns but I think he is going to be the biggest steal of the draft. That would land Carlton a key defender, a key forward and the best forward/midfielder in the draft. You can then go for the best available midfielder at 19.

The top three are locked. Weitering will go one, Schache to Brisbane at two and Melbourne will take Parish at three.

Essendon’s next two picks will be the interesting ones though. They have a similar scenario to that of the Bulldogs in 2012 where they had picks five and six. The Bulldogs future looks set around those two picks in Stringer and Mcrae. Essendon must get this right and I think they will take a similar approach in taking a key forward then the best available midfielder. On that thinking they will go Curnow at four and Oliver at five.

Gold Coast are hard to read, they don’t really have any holes they need to fill. However, the loss of Dixon may force them to go big. I think they will take McKay as his size will also allow them to use him as a second ruck. Melbourne at seven will want to add another key forward/defender and the best available will be Francis. This will allow Carlton to take what they most desperately need a key forward in Weideman at eight. Rounding out the top ten will be the Crows taking Milera and GWS selecting their academy prospect Hopper.

Top 10
1) Weitering (Car)
2) Schache (Bris)
3) Parish (Mel)
4) Curnow (Ess)
5) Oliver (Ess)
6) McKay (GC)
7) Francis (Mel)
8) Weideman (Car)
9) Milera (Adel)
10) Hopper (GWS)