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Gurlivleen Grewal

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Joined January 2015

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Supporting a team is a sacrilege I try my best to avert. We are perishing for want of wonder, not want of wonders. Akin to the amount of cricket we are having. Bad beats only happen to good players.

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Hey Paul, I think you mistake my love for calculating odds for an Indian bias. It just so happens that India comes out ahead with odds in many matchups. I think it would be controversial but don’t think the NZ team is the top 3 ODI teams, even now and yet out of nowhere, they nearly won the worldcup, so calculating odds is never an exercise in making 100% predictions.
I have followed the teams enough to feel that India would still commit the blunder of playing 3 pacers. Could they strengthen the batting by playing Vihari – I am not sure. At 7, Jadeja overall might have a similar expected value to Vihari and provides more dynamism with batting, with added bonus of batting and bowling. So playing Jadeja at the cost of a batsman could not be a blunder but doing that at the cost of 4th pace bowler, would likely be.
Could they prefer Jadeja over Ashwin – as I reason in the article, Ashwin has to play. He is very much the threat, and a point of difference against LHBs of NZ, and possibly the first 3 players on the teamsheet.
The Indian batting is not weak – it is not weak relative to Eng, Aus but in these conditions, they are not at par with NZ. I love the way NZ grind their way to advantage, especially helpful in these conditions. The Indian bowling attack has shown that patience is part of their game too, so it would be more of a contest than say NZ vs Eng.
If the forecast is as grim as predicted, batting first would be perilous. Not only the conditions would be tough but frequent breaks provide the bowlers to recharge and break the rhythm of batting.
For an exhibit of my reasoning – search England vs India Lord’s 2018

The weather is murky and India are up against it

A thoughtful post. Thanks
Seeding and thus awarding points as per rankings, and/or dividing into groups would yield more equitable competition.
Rather than complicate the matters with choosing the grounds for more than 3 matches, perhaps pick 3 randomly, thus minimizing the talk around conditions/pitches.
Might I add, forgo the toss and let the touring team decide. This will reduce the home-team advantage which becomes an issue when one leg of the tour is counted towards the WTC cycle.

A fairer format for the World Test Championship

Pak, Srl, Bang have been guilty of expecting coaches to fix the issues. The domestic setup needs to be improved – better pitches with diversity of playing conditions, fewer/competitive teams, opportunities for best players/teams to tour abroad etc. Coaches at international levels can only bridge the skill gap to an extent, they are there for mental aspects, minor tweaks.

Is a specialist white-ball coach the solution to Pakistan's short-form struggles?

All pitches are made to suit the home side. Doctoring is changing the conditions to one’s advantage. Bangladesh can make all the turners they like but vs India, it won’t work.

The problem arises when
a) there is a discrepancy in resources available to the away team – say England not having the best of spinners vs India and
b) when the pitch varies significantly across innings.

Then toss becomes pivotal for the away team to even compete, let alone win.

In the first test of 2020 India vs England, the pitch was very flat on day 1 and progressively got worse and became a mess on day 5. England winning the toss and the pitch meant the disadvantage they had in the spin department was more than compensated.

Similar is the case of India’s tour to NZ. The pitches vary drastically from day 1 to day 2. While on paper the teams are matched but without enough game time, the much more adept home team pace attack turns winning the toss into a more than likely win.

So on a doctored and inconsistent pitch, winning the toss is a likely win for the home team. Losing the toss is more of an even keel.
So if you do the probability math, vs an evenly matched team – they raise the chance to win from 50% to 70-75%.

How India should line up for the World Test Championship final

People are going to keep pointing out the NZ and Eng series. While yes a world champion side ought to do better but the results were hugely influenced by toss. On spicy wickets in Eng and NZ, toss plays a huge role. In between one gets roads, where the pitch in the first dig is markedly better of batting vs say 3rd and 4th. India lost all 7 in 7 vs NZ, Eng. And ended up losing 2-0 and 3-1.
On the other hand, India has no qualms with tosses in India. In beating England when they lost 4 out of 5 tosses in 2018 and lost 3 out of 4 in 2020. Because the conditions are more even – the pitches take turn from day 1 and continue to get uneven over the days, but don’t change appreciably between day 1 and day 5 to make toss a huge factor. So they might be termed doctored pitches but they are at least even all the way through and I consider them fair. I consider the pitch to be doctored when it changes appreciably between the first innings and the second.
Ideally, the touring side should just get the option to decide – tosses in test matches are pointless. Home countries decide the pitches, the schedules- touring sides should get at least this.
Pitches don’t take turn in the 4th innings, so the side winning the toss puts the other side in, bat in the best conditions, and win the match.
The second key aspect is preparation. Put any SENA team into a wicket-taking turn on day-1 and with a weak long preparation, they are going to struggle. The same happens to Asian teams. The lack of preparation for India in NZ vs say the case of Aus made a huge difference.
Gone are the days when the pitches during ODIs used to provide some meaningful practice – now the pitches in Eng, NZ for ODIs and tests are so different that only dedicated preparation helps.
In helpful conditions and low-scoring encounters, if the bowlers are not in rhythm for even the initial spells, things go out of hand pretty quickly.
So the advantage is NZ’s only because India won’t have meaningful game time ahead of the one-off test and NZ would play a confidence-boosting, understrength yet challenging England.

How India should line up for the World Test Championship final

Test cricket as a format has been under-monetized as a product. Ideally, it should be packaged and sold like F1. A central body that runs the sport professionally, maximizing revenue and creating fair incentives for everybody to succeed, has control over how the game is produced, marketed, played.

There are enough revenue streams for it to generate 1B+ each year (not counting the revenue from T20s, ODIs) – enough to ensure for cricketers, support staff, those coming through, global infrastructure, and for the game to spread.

In itself, it will allow more cricketers to specialize in Tests or shorter formats and thus creating more riveting contests. This will allow more investment in innovations like pink balls for D/Ns or how to counter dew etc.

But if I were to bet which would happen first – IPL teams from Aus, UK – creating 20+ teams competition, 6-month season (with parallens to EPL) vs ICC managed test championship – the former seems more likely. Just that T20 is much better managed even today and tests present a much lower hanging fruit, if only the countries can come together on this.

T20 hasn’t killed Test cricket – it’s proven why Tests are the pinnacle of the sport

I have heard about Thailand for cosmetic surgeries, a combination with tourism, extended stays.

Given there is no cost advantage wrt India, I don’t think anyone would prefer healthcare in a foreign country – which could require an extended stay, and even after that problems and corrective surgeries could be required.

Anyway, the point is yes, I am pretty critical of the govt in this crisis – but the proportions are largely due to the policy and governance and not the lack of quality healthcare.

At high points of COVID waves, this was the case with even developed countries including Canada, the US, UK. Just that the huge population means the burden is much more sustained, the infra:population ratio is not as good as developed countries and without proper planning, basic necessities like oxygen have seen demand outstrip supply 5x.

Michael Hussey tests postive for COVID-19 in India: Reports

I don’t know where you are reading Indians going to SE Asia. I am part of an online medical consultation service and we get so many queries from SE Asia for serious, medical issues in Oncology, Rheumatology, and others – where one requires super-specialists.

Medical tourism to India is huge and there is no dearth of quality private healthcare – on par with developed countries. And one need not be super-rich to get this healthcare. The costs are typically 1/10th of the costs in the US, UK. And often NRIs rather come to India to get such care because it is cheaper (if out of insurance) and the waiting times are days/weeks vs months. Due to to wait times, even those with insurance come to India to get treated quickly and at a relatively cheap rate.

The only thing lacking in India say compared to the US is cutting-edge medications, cutting-edge research and ongoing trials – the medication that has not been approved, undergoing trials, or certain therapies that have not gotten mainstream – but that would be the case even with most hospitals in the US.

So, nope Hussey won’t face any issue. If symptoms are managed right from the start and the oxygen, meds are available (as would be the case with CSK staff, there are doctors and full equipped ambulances on standby), things don’t go out of hand and he wouldn’t even require hospitalization.

Now, why does one have a crisis in India? Primarily because of govt mismanagement and the sudden rise of cases. The Govt ignored the science, the committees and didn’t expect this vociferous second wave. The infrastructure is not for such a 5-10 fold increase in demand for oxygen. Things could have been better had the govt taken the steps that were initially planned to set up more oxygen plants but they never materialized thanks to typical bureaucracy.

Michael Hussey tests postive for COVID-19 in India: Reports

I am writing this from Bangalore. The situation is much worse than reported – the deaths are easily under-reported by multiple of 5 and the number of cases perhaps even 25 (conservative modeling by epidemiologists).

The situation has been made much worse by the anti-science governance, as is the case with the US, Brazil, and India. Add to this the projection of strongman politics – and you get disasters amplified.

Democracy is flawed (different laws apply to those in power, those in power lack the acumen to handle disasters, the pillars of democracy, be it courts, media, election commissions can be bought et al.), but in its tenuous state, most old-school politicians would resort to advice from experts. But this avantgarde politics of strongmen fueled by macho images in social media – we have politicians whose only concern is managing their image.

Even now, the Indian media is working hand in glove with the govt. to prevent damage to the image, the start ministers are enacting laws to curb anyone to raise voices (in the name of preventing fearmongering ofc).

Indian democracy right now is like the functioning of BCCI –
1. Puts the ends before the means
2. It is preordained who will rule
3. Those in power have captured all sister organizations to prevent any change
4. Us vs. others – no collective goodwill and wisdom
5. But what people do like about this – in conventional terms, the system is thriving, whatever may be the cost. The system is efficient and puts the interest of “India” first. The definition of India is whoever part of the majority. So it is not worldwide cricket or trying to grow the pie – rather just the narrow-mindedness of dog eats dog world.

Coming to IPL, I think it is not taking resources away from the current situation. The only concern is that it is in bad taste, and a few of the players would rather be with their families.

Oth, it is providing some respite to those who are quarantined. The revenue is much needed for domestic cricketers among other staff, who don’t play in IPL and rely on BCCI. The players are free to leave – foreign players made a choice, and the situation outside doesn’t change it – they will still find a way via charter flights to get back home in time. Domestic players are still playing.

Is playing cricket in COVID really a welcome distraction?

You correctly point out that Spin is a problem for India. I would also add that playing leg spinners who have a potent googly is also a problem for the top order.
Jadeja is not a lock for T20s – not even close. He has not been considered, right, I would say, for this format. His batting isn’t dynamic enough, and with bowling, he doesn’t pose a threat. Similarly, Shami is not going to be in 15 either. Yes, he bowls a few good balls every now and then but he neither picks up wickets often enough nor is a defensive bowler.
Do note, for world events, expect pitches that won’t turn much and would be good for batting – ICC prepares the pitches.
The only spinner who seems to be close to certainty is Rahul Chahar. Varun Chakraborty is another guy in the frame and would have played for India if not for his poor injury record and fitness. But he is not setting the IPL on fire either.
I would think Ashwin has an outside chance for a defensive spinner if he picks a few wickets too.

Roy, Butler, Stokes, Bairstow, Morgan, Livingstone, S Curann, (Jordan/Topley/Ali), Archer, Rashid, Wood
A pretty good lineup. They just need Stokes to bowl more and get better in short-form cricket. He has the skill to be a good bowler but because he gets under bowled so much, he hasn’t justified his talents. The backup bowling options to Rashid, Archer, Wood aren’t great but the T20s are won by the batsmen.

I think Ind, Eng, Aus, NZ are going to be the semifinalists. Yes, WI’s team from yesteryear is still a threat and would be looking for the last hurrah, but the other teams have evolved a lot more.

Who are the T20 World Cup contenders?

Roy, Butler, Stokes, Bairstow, Morgan, Livingstone, S Curann, (Jordan/Topley/Ali), Archer, Rashid, Wood
A pretty good lineup. They just need Stokes to bowl more and get better in short-form cricket. He has the skill to be a good bowler but because he gets underbowled so much, he hasn’t justified his talents. The backup bowling options to Rashid, Archer, Wood aren’t great but the T20s are won by the batsmen.

Bairstow boosts his chances of becoming England's T20 number-four

Expect RCB to make the most hurried, impatient and worst tactical decisions. Picking Sams, Jamieson, letting go 2 in 1 player like deKock after 1 poor season would add to the list of crown jewels of fups. So not having high hopes for opportunities in which Sundar can flourish. His ideal team would be CSK, RR, KKR, SRH.

IPL 2021 could see Washington Sundar take off

Both of them will get a decent shot at IPL, well ahead of T20 WC. Christian might get only limited opportunities given he has the misfortune of being chosen by the worst tactical team in the IPL – RCB. Henriques will have to fight for his spot too – there are plenty of overseas options in the middle order for Kings.

Stoinis had his chance for Australia, now it's time for Christian and Henriques in T20s

Well, I have seen the underwhelming performance of Agar against quality sides and I would prefer Swepson. Phillippe – have you seen his performance in the IPL? Selection is all about the early hunches.

Australia's Christchurch capitulation poses daunting World Cup questions

Knee jerk indeed. In T20s one-off days usually come out worse then they are. Given that the first 3 players in the 11 have been resting Cummins, Starc and Warner – I assume it is trying different players. But the sooner they realize Richardson, Sams and even Agar, Wade, Phillippe are not the answers they are looking for, the better.

Australia's Christchurch capitulation poses daunting World Cup questions

CA would be prudent in grooming someone else. Smith’s captaincy, tactics were not great either. And his leadership leading up to the incident had been shoddy. His use of Lyon and spin in ODIs were especially poor.

Also, he has similar issues as Kohli as being head and shoulders above everybody else – there could be a reason that your most gifted players shouldn’t be captain?

The issue is finding a batter in the 11 who has a stable spot and is driven enough to take up this role.

Steve Smith pays tribute to BCCI, Cricket Australia after winning Allan Border Medal

People get emotional with any result, in any facet of life. Nope, India didn’t get smashed in NZ, Eng say like NZ did in Aus. Even results like 4-0 sweep by India during Eng’s last tour of Ind were a lot closer than the scoreline suggests. That is the nature of the elite level.

A few inches change the game. Bigger impact comes from absentees, preparation, fatigue, tosses. India had woeful luck in Eng wrt to tosses. And in NZ, they did miss a couple of key players and didn’t prepare well enough.

In Aus, while the Indians were a tad unlucky to nick a bunch in the first test, they were a tad lucky in the last 2 where the indecisions didn’t end up being wickets. That is the nature of the game. We enjoy the sport for all the skill, audacity but if you are looking for reasons to explain one-off events, then you are not looking deep enough. Over the course of a few matches, with everything remaining the same, yes a better team will have a consistent edge but there a ton of variables and we only get random matchups. More of 1000 cuts than a hack.

You could under the vagaries of the sport from analysis like this by the cricinfo staff –
More on this: https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/how-good-were-india-in-australia-a-look-at-the-control-numbers-1249506

We need to get used to India dominating cricket

There were plenty of half-truths in Langer’s estimation – they expected India to roll over and they didn’t. I expected the same because bowling in Aus is notoriously different and tough, say compared to other tours. It had less to do with 1B + ppl rubbish.

At the international level, the difference in teams is rarely enough for one particular team to consistently dominate others. India has started utilizing the resources better ie A tours, focus on bowling, fitness etc. All this turns one into a competitive unit, one of the best even but finally excellence in any endeavour is more in the mindset. Prior to 2017, India at times had the right mindset but not enough skills. And at times under Dhoni, they lacked even that in overseas tests.

SA, Pak would follow Srl in going through this phase now and the only way to get out of the rut is the basics – long term investments. And in the case of SA where cricket is one of the sports, improving the incentives at the grassroots and at junior levels.

We need to get used to India dominating cricket

Boy, I sure hope that baby’s cute. 😂

The Liebke Ratings: Australia vs India, fourth Test

With Ishant and Rohit missing, the bowling is weak and the batting is thin on experience. Can’t see how India avoid 4-0. The young guns can bat and fill in the holes but the lack of bowling is what I fear will cause the next drubbing. Aus were not necessarily at their best and Ind have gotten significantly weaker.

With respect to selection, don’t see Shaw, Saha, Umesh being dropped. Yes, the selectors should not have picked them in the first place but now they are backed into the corner – just can’t drop them after 1 poor game.

Would rather pick Saini, if he is bowling well in the nets. Aus isn’t an easy place for a bowler to come and adjust. Among the young crop, is miles ahead, just needs to adjust here.

Until India have Shastri – the ulitmate yes-man and dummy selectors, fearing a backlash from Kohli, this team would never be able to play to their potential – the way say professional cirkcet is supposed to be ala NZ. Over time, they have taken apart the confidence of Rahul, Pant, Kuldeep and while they did their very best with Pujara, Ashwin, Jaddu – they had maturity on their part to get back again.

Where to now for India after 36 all out?

Exactly – calling him Sachin just because he looks like one, has a bat by the same sponsor is pretty mediocre insight. He is indeed akin to Sehwag who primarily struggled against high-quality pace where the ball was moving a bit.

Even against the international attacks, he has faced in the subcontinent, and good bowlers in the IPL – his side on technique, limited footwork, difficulty against short ball are all apparent. I bet he won’t score that many against the same WI attack in WI – the pitches nowadays have a bit of spice.

If Kohli can be taken apart by Anderson, what chance does his technique have – there is a clear step up in Internationals vs domestic cricket.

Shaw thing for tourists as India reveal XI for first Test

It is amazing that everybody who is a bit knowledgeable can predict that Shaw will struggle but the team chose him over Gill. Mind you his technique is not loads better – but at least his way out of a hole is not just trying to go bang bang. Works in the subcontinent, against mediocre attacks.

People often fall for the million-dollar shots to call someone the next great but it is how they do the things in between that decide careers.

Shaw thing for tourists as India reveal XI for first Test

Just like Tendulkar and any decent cricketer in India, Dhoni stymied the progress of those to follow him by staying way longer than one should have. India, of course, has a tradition of looking back and falling back on nostalgia rather than looking forward and planning ahead.
https://www.espncricinfo.com/story/_/id/29677401/n-srinivasan-exercised-all-my-authority-bcci-president-save-ms-dhoni-captaincy-2011 Should have been sacked of captaincy in ’11 but stayed till 14 only to see further drops in performance of the whole team.

The idea of relieving him of captaincy in 11 in all formats was to give a young captain free hand in developing new players. Is it a coincidence that the fast bowlers have developed their game after Kohli put the emphasis on fast and fitness?

Any team has to let in a critical mass of new-gen players to make dramatic changes to team performances, expectations and culture. Dhoni was preserving the old guard in tests as recalls of Raina, Harbhajan, Yuvraj prove. Had Kohli flopped as a captain at than juncture, India would have moved to Rohit Sharma. Such policies plant the rot and Kohli to a certain degree was following in those footsteps for quite a while.

Those missteps due to conflict of interests, lack of courage and foresight lead to India always staying behind the curve – be it the mindset in limited overs – ie be consistent get 300 or defensiveness in tests. And lead to the middle-age selection and execution in 2019 world cup.

So just like Tendulkar, a once a generation cricketer, who became timid with age, lost a chunk of ability and chutzpah and lost his bearings, but prolonged his career thanks to nostalgia, nepotism and conflicts of interests.

A letter to Mahendra Singh Dhoni

Their cricket fortunes are mirroring the economy – just floating above junk. A dominant political party with a proud legacy doing the developing country routine. They can put Smith, Kallis, Boucher at the helm but unless the financial incentives align, the near-term situation is bleak.

The number of players of color will become dominant – not saying it is a good or a bad thing. With the present financial situation, only players who don’t have much to lose will stay in the system. So if somehow SA stay competitive for the next 5-7 years and don’t go to the lows of Srl, WI, they will still come back up.

Retirements leading South Africa into grim cricket era

Nobody torments anybody in ODIs, on flat pitches.

Indian rookies ready to take on Australia

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