Agree about Ireland needing something new this year. I think some players were a little bit too comfortable in their shirts. 6 of Ireland’s 8 worst performances, under Schmidt, have come within the last year. Despite this, no real changes have been made to the starting team.

Anyway, good luck next week. If it’s wet, I think it could be really close. For me, next week is the real world cup final. I’d back New Zealand, if the replacement New Zealand props can gain parity at the scrum.

Congrats New Zealand, the far better team. The only positive from today is that my prediction of a New Zealand vs France final is still on 😂. As much as I would have liked Ireland to win, I think its probably better for rugby that a team playing positive rugby wins. If every team played like us, rugby would be very hard to watch. If any of New Zealand, Japan or France win the world cup, I’ll be happy.

I think the writing has been on the wall for Ireland since the six nations. A lot of Irish players have been out of form, for a long time and we just don’t have the same ruthlessness to drop these guys that New Zealand do.

Finally, I think Joe Schmidt and Rory Best’s contributions to Irish rugby have to be acknowledged. Both have played a massive role in Ireland’s most successful period during the professional era.

How about a draw and putting your archnemesis out of the world cup and entering the easier side of the draw? 😁

True, but it would put New Zealand in a weird position. Lose to Italy and they put their archnemesis out of the world cup and enter the easier side of the draw.

Apparently not. Taken from the journal:

According to section three of World Rugby’s tournament rules for Japan 2019: “Where a pool match cannot be commenced on the day in which it is scheduled, it shall not be postponed to the following day, and shall be considered as cancelled.

“In such situations, the result shall be declared a draw and teams will be allocated two match points each and no score registered.”

I agree with everything you’ve written, Neil. For me though, the biggest mistake was the call of crossing/obstruction against Stander/Farrell before the Japanese scrum, that lead to the try. It looked pretty clear to me anyway, that the supposed “obstruction” had no material effect on play. This was a clear example of poor interpretation of the rules, and Gardner was solely responsible. Japan were probably going to score anyway (they were in the ascendancy ), but it was still a frustrating call.

Also agree regarding Schmidt and Best. They are developing a bit of a habit of transferring the blame for defeats on everybody but themselves. Wish they would look at how Townsend/McInally reacted to Scotland’s loss last week.

Normally agree with you mzilikazi, but can’t on this one. The last three matches that I’ve seen him referee are Ireland vs Wales(in the 6 nations), France vs Argentina(last week) and Japan vs Ireland this week. Nothing against Gardner personally, but they were three of the most poorly refereed matches you’re likely to see.

My big issue with Gardner is how many things he misses and then how he tries to overcompensates for his misses. Missed a clear offside from Picamoles last week (that arguably cost Argentina the game last week), and wanted to to show how stringintly he applies the offside rules this week. Made a number of questionable offside calls and at least two penalties were given, where the players in question weren’t even close to being offside.

Maybe it’s Schmidt’s plan to make Rasie think his plan is working 😱 After all, Joe did send Felix in to infiltrate the Springbok camp.

In all seriousness, if the rumoured typhoon does occur before or during the Springboks vs Italy match, then it will come down to points difference, where Italy might go through ahead of the Springboks (if the Springboks can’t overturn the 22 point difference against Canada). A Japan vs Italy combo could be a fairly novel quarter final pairing.

True, both are young enough to have another 2 world cups in them and will definitely feature heavily during this rugby world cup. The two best tightheads in the world at the moment, in my opinion.

Player of the tournament: Aaron Smith. At his best, he is a fusion of Murray and Faf.
Breakout player: Damian Penaud to carry his club form into the world cup and cause carnage with his offloads.
Wallabies result: Quarter-finals. Will finish first in their pool, but will underestimate a rising French team.
Something that definitely will happen: A month long discussion on “whether the game’s gone soft” from the usual suspects, when a blatant shoulder charge to the head receives a red card.
Something that definitely won’t happen:
Runners-up: France. After beating Argentina and losing to England in the group stages, France will rebound by beating Australia and Ireland/South Africa in a semi-final.
Champions: New Zealand. Brodie Retallick to come back from injury and show why he is the premier forward in world rugby.

Some great shouts for breakthrough player of the competition. James Ryan seems to be one of those players that isn’t rated as highly down south, as he is up north.

The battle of the young powerful tightheads is something I’m looking forward to, as well. Demba Bamba, Taniela Tupou and Andrew Porter are all fairly ridiculous athletes that could make an impact. Reece and Radradra have very interesting back stories.

I also think any of England’s options in the 6 or 7 position could be the breakthrough player of the tournament. Underhill, Curry, Wilson and Ludlam have all looked in form and powerful. When you factor in that Lawes and Itoje will also see game time at 6, it’s enviable strength and depth.

Robbie Henshaw will be out until the final group game. Kearney and Earls are injury doubts for Scotland, but Carbery should be back to full-fitness for that match(according to the press here in Ireland.) The big worry I’d have for Ireland isn’t the injuries, as much as the form of some of the key players. The Scrum-half and hooker positions worry me, in particular. If Best an Murray can rediscover their form of two years ago, Ireland should win. If not, I’d give the slight edge to Scotland.

I know it was only a warm-up game, but if France play like they did against Scotland in Paris 4 weeks ago, they will be pretty difficult to stop. The best performance I’ve seen from a French national team in 8 + years(since the RWC in NZ). This is a very different French team to recent years and playing a very different style. They can potentially be targeted in the forwards (Bamba and a few others in the back-row are talented, but very inexperienced), but their back-line options are special. Dupont, Serin, Ntamack, Fofana, Fickou, Vakatawa, Guitoune, Penaud and Raka are probably the third most exiting set of backs in the competition ( Fiji and NZ being 1 and 2).

It’s definitely a big risk to go to a world-cup without Toner at the line-out, but I think it’s a risk that needs to be taken. With Best, Toner, O’Mahony and Van Der Flier starting, I don’t think there would be enough collision winners in the pack for us to be to able to stand-up to the likes of South Africa/England. I feel like there are workarounds to line-out issues(e.g. quick-lineouts, movement, extra-space), there are far fewer alternatives to a lack of raw power, especially in the tight. I thought it was noticeable how Wales suddenly started winning collisions when Ireland brought on Best and Toner. They both put in a lot tackles, but the majority of them, were behind the gain line.

Another thing that I’d imagine has been taken into account is the fact that Ireland’s teams against Russia and Samoa are likely to feature 4 Munster men in the tight-five(Kilcoyne, Scannell, Ryan, Beirne). If Schmidt feels that Toner isn’t good enough to start, then it makes sense to keep to combination together, especially from a scrummaging point of view, where I’d imagine Ireland will be trying to get ascendancy.

I think Coetzee is injured, Nick, which from an Irish perspective is a bit of relief. Never wish injury on any player, especially a guy with his injury record, but I don’t think too many Irish people would be giving Ireland any chance of beating South Africa, in a potential quarter-final, if he was there. If he was Irish he would probably be the first name on the Ireland team at 6, 7, or 8.

Very Insightful article, from an Irish point of view. Watching the England vs Ireland match, I had been of the impression that Byrne had been very poor in defense, but watching the clips above, it looks like he didn’t receive much help, especially from Van Der Flier. Can’t imagine Schmidt will be too happy with his attempted tackles on Tuilagi, above.

It’s interesting that a match that Toner took very little part in, might have cost him his place at the world cup. Jerry Flannery, speaking on the sportsjoe rugby podcast, said on several occasions, that Kleyn would be by some distance the most physical player in the squad. With this in mind and the physical domination England had in that match, Schmidt couldn’t possibly leave out the most physical player he had available?

There’s also potentially the element of Kleyn knowing Etzebeth and Du Toit well, from his time at the Stormers. Geoff Parkes recently called out New Zealand’s devious plans to destroy Australia, is there any chance that Erasmus and Marcell Coetzee were sent to Ireland with the intention of getting as much intel as possible, for a quarter-final 😁 ? With Kleyn, Stander and van Graan in Ireland, and Felix Jones, Aled Walters and Erasumus with South Africa, is there any chance the South African line-out calls will be in Irish, and the Irish line-out calls in Afrikaans? 😂

Chris Farrell is a very different defensive player to Ringrose. Ringrose is a more mature defender and makes better decisions on when to “accept weakness.” Farrell, under Munster’s structures anyway, is always looking to make a dominant tackle by coming out of the line early.

In attack they have some similar traits. Both are excellent passers. Farrell sometimes played as a second playmaker for Grenoble. Farrell’s footwork is deceptively good, but Ringrose probably gets the edge there. Farrell gets the edge in creating space for the outside channels, as defenders tend to turn their shoulders inwards when they see his 110 kg frame on the ball.

With regards to Carbery at 15, maybe Schmidt’s master plan was to implement an innovative, triple playmaker system at Munster.

In all seriousness, I don’t think Bleyendaal is the 10 Munster need to challenge for the Champions cup. I think he could be a really good 12 for Munster, but like Keatley, I think he loses confidence too easily to be an outhalf.

I actually think Munster have 3 fly-halves(JJ, TB, IK) that are better suited to playing 12. I’d like to see Joey Carberry at 10 with Bill Johnston (highly rated academy player) as backup, for next season.

Really good points, thanks for the insight.
I’m completely biased, but I think Chris Farrell is well suited to Andy Farrell’s defense. Comes out of the line early, like Jonathan Davies during the Lions series, and makes a serious impact. If he improves his decision-making, he could be our very own JD2.

Carbery to Munster is a no-brainer to me, regardless of the game plan. If Carbery is viewed as a 15, then Leinster have the 3 best full-backs in Ireland. If Carbery is viewed as a 10, then Leinster have the 3 best out-halves in Ireland.
I hope, as a Munster fan, that Munster will not abandon Carbery at 10 and move him to 15, if he has a few bad games.

Thanks Nick.
It strikes me looking at some of those images/clips, just how narrow Ireland’s defense is. This is an issue Ireland have had for what seems like an eternity. Powell’s 15 meter pass to FoIau is an example of this. I am no expert, but surely it is just as simple as telling Henshaw and Aki to stand an extra meter to the right. Ireland are giving up way too many easy yards in the wider channels.

The more worrying aspect of Ireland’s play is the lack of ruthlessness. 3 tries in 3 games is really poor for a team that had as much possession as Ireland had. I thought Ireland looked to play more positive/heads-up rugby in the second/third test, but the structures weren’t good enough to execute it. Because of this, a lot the play was narrow, again.
Do you think using an attacking 2-4-2 formation or a double-playmaker at 12 could help Ireland become more ruthless and could you ever see it happening under Schmidt ( I think he has used a very strict version of the 2-4-2 in the past e.g. against Argentina, but not consistently) before the world cup?

Agree timber.
It’s the same with all nationalities, though. I love the Welsh, but they have made an art form of complaining about referreing decisions that were nonabsolute.
Geoff has a really good paragraph about how comentary teams impact the public’s perception on debatable (nonabsolute) decisions. It’s the exact same with Irish commentary teams.

“Technology provides certainty and accuracy in many aspects, but this is offset by its inconsistent application, invasion into the running time of what should be a continuous contest, and the false premise that all decisions can be absolute. Most certainly technology shouldn’t be a tool for commentators to reinforce pre-existing biases and ignorance of the laws, and the sooner the offenders realise that they are driving an unhealthy subtext in the way rugby is watched and discussed and change their behaviour, the better off the game will be.”

That makes sense, PeterK.
We love rugby because every aspect of the game has some competition for the ball.
My preference would be to get rid of the base of the post tries. Allowing players stand with their heels on the padding would make refereeing the offside line, close to impossible, in my opinion.

Yes Geoff, I think this is the most complete Australian team I have seen in a long time.
– Smart offensive maul.
– Powerful scrummaging.
– Big line-speed in defense.
– Huge ball-carriers (Tupou, Tui and Latu) getting gain line.
– A backline that always looks dangerous either from kick returns or set piece moves.

I think Christian Lealiifano could be the solution to your game management issues. He was brilliant at controlling the game for Ulster in the Champions cup. The Ulster vs Wasps game was played in awful conditions and Lealiifano managed the conditions expertly. I’m pretty sure he would be the second choice Irish fly-half, if he were Irish.

Really refreshing article, Geoff.
Completely agree re Wallabies’ discipline. I’m huge fan of Cheika and Australian rugby, but why they don’t address the discipline issue is beyond me. That was the difference between the teams, for me. Even though the numbers of penalties conceded was similar, Ireland tended to give away penalties when they were under pressure. Australia gave them away needlessly.

A clear example of this was in the last few minutes. Tolu Latu was clearly told to release the ball at the breakdown and he continued to compete. 2 minutes later, Tadhg Beirne was in a similar position and had won the ball legally, but released the ball as the referee had told him to do so.

I don’t get the ref bashing at all from Australia. I don’t think the ref had a bad game, but the Wallabies could easily have had four yellow cards and two penalties tries against them in that game.
Yellow card(1) Israel Folau’s for his tackle on O’Mahony in-the-air on the ninth minute.
Yellow card(2) Coleman/Kepu for stopping a clear Murray try, at the base of the post, being clearly offside.
Yellow card(3) Coleman for collapsing a maul that was heading straight for the try line at 42:37.
Yellow card(4) Israel Folau for a deliberate knock-on at 76:03, when Ireland had a two-man overlap.

If Australia sort their discipline and game management out, they will be a serious dark horse at the next world cup. I hope they do, love the way Australia play rugby (how it should be played) and they are my second favourite team.

Causation and Correlation, Fox.
The Wallabies’ attacking structures wasn’t the cause of the Australian losses. It was poor tactical kicking and game management that cost Australia against England/Scotland.

Ireland’s attack against England was based on excellent phase-play moves and one-out carriers. The only time Ireland put any width on the ball was when there was a scrum/penalty advantage. These phase-play moves are great, but what happens after or when they don’t work? We saw that yesterday, against France in this year’s six nations and against Scotland and Wales in the 2017 six nations. Scotland/New Zealand have structures that allow players make on-field decisions on when to go wide, when to carry and when to kick.

I identified these issues in an article before the match. Ireland struggle badly with width and don’t ever punish loose kicking with counter-attacks, due to Schmidt’s player selection.

I hope you’re right, Mzilikazi.
Sell-outs is great news for Australian rugby. Maybe ye should invite Ireland over for more tours?

With the exception of Scotland vs Ireland game in the 2015, Schmidt hasn’t really done open rugby with Ireland.
Conway plays for Munster and has excellent footwork.Picking Larmour at full-back would be a real show of ambition, but I can’t see Schmidt doing it.

Great Comment, Fionn.
Dún Laoghaire is nice, it’s doesn’t quite have the beauty of Limerick, but it’s alright.

Yeah, Ireland definitely have the personnel to play with the 2-4-2 formation that the All-Blacks adopt. Connacht won the pro 12 a few years ago, playing with that style. I think Leinster might have used some variation of it last year.

Out-half is definitely a problem position for Ireland, beyond Sexton. I think Carbery has all the potential in the world, but he looks rusty to me. This is due to a combination of injuries and selection, which meant he only played 2/3 matches at fly-half for Leinster.

Defensive spacing is still a big issue. At the moment, there is just not enough width at all in the Irish defense. This coupled with bad-decision making and having three front rowers out on the wing was a recipe for disaster.

It’s really interesting how different coaches see the game of rugby.
I heard Cheika interviewed before the Ireland game, on sky sports. He was basically saying that he doesn’t alter the game-plan at all for different opposition. Like you said, he has a philosophy of expansive rugby and allows players make on field-decisions based on what the opposition are doing. So Cheika would rather spend the time fine-tuning his structures(that allow heads-up rugby) and improve individual skills, than spend time on phase-play moves for specific opposition.

This is in complete contrast to Schmidt. The Irish attack is based, almost solely, on the few phase-play moves that Schmidt has identified will work against an opposition. Once these moves break-down/don’t work, Ireland become very one-dimensional, as there are no (good)structures in place that encourage on-field decision making. England have the dual playmaker, Australia the 1-3-3-1 and New Zealand the 2-4-2 or some variation and Ireland = nothing. This explains why Ireland normally lose when the minutes-in-play stat is greater than 50 minutes.

There are positives and negatives to both approaches but I know which approach I’d rather watch.