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The Roar

Daniel Albright

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Joined December 2013

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I apologise but the line was edited by the site. ‘It’s time for the Top 4 of 2013 to all win in the same week’ was the original sentence. Plus the article was sent in full from Friday-Monday.

The over/under: NRL Round 3 Saturday

It’s difficult to say with the Titans and Tigers. Neither team has inspired a lot of confidence so far, so no result is out of the question. But based on the defense of the Tigers, I went with the Titans by a double digit margin. I just don’t think Mick Potter is capable of making the necessary adjustments in his gameplan to handle someone like Kelly.

The Over/Under: NRL Round 2

But how have the Browns improved? They paid Whitner more than their own departed safety in Ward, who was better than Whitner. They cut Jackson only to give an older Dansby his money. Dansby was very impressive but at his age , four years is very dangerous. Cleveland got older players at too high a rate. What was good about their decision making?

NFL free agency day 1: Recap, winners and losers

I don’t doubt his tenacity as a player and he’s in the Hero section of the article because he is such an amazing offensive talent. But it would be wrong to not, at least, recognise he did struggle defensively, even if he made up for it in many other ways.

Heroes and villains of NRL Round 1

It’s not as if he can’t position himself correctly in defense. He just can’t make tackles. Last season 24% of his tackles were either missed or ineffective, which was the second worst rank among five-eighths with Todd Carney ranking last. He missed 8 tackles in Round 1 which was the most of any player in the league. Even if his defense has improved, his tackling ability is still far below the average.

Heroes and villains of NRL Round 1

I didn’t think they’d get the wooden spoon at the start of the season, I still think the Tigers will, but I’m not sold on them as a team competing for the Top 8.

You could add Trent Merrin to the list of representative players but there is some concern that two of the players you mentioned are wingers. There may be forwards with potential, but there aren’t any real certainties. The team could really use some size in the forwards otherwise they might find themselves out-muscled in some games.

And surely the words ‘a few 1/2 backs’ and ‘stability’ don’t really belong together. Widdop could be a fantastic player but having uncertainty at halfback seems like the definition of instability.

Dragons' Widdop will worry Warriors out wide

Widdop was adept at taking control of the playmaking duties, which the team was obviously hoping for with his $500000 per year deal. It’ll be interesting to see if he can maintain that form through the season. But the Dragons were a fairly common pick for the wooden spoon just over a week ago. Does one, admittedly impressive, victory now make them a contender for the Top 8 instead?

Dragons' Widdop will worry Warriors out wide

It has to be said that Fifita allegedly had attitude issues in the past and Cronulla must be worried about his motivation for the rest of the season. His opening game couldn’t have gone much worse.

Heroes and villains of NRL Round 1

That was my mistake as I went with the official NRL listing rather than the in-game pairing. However, that doesn’t change the defensive issues that both players had during the game.

Heroes and villains of NRL Round 1

The refs definitely struggled in Round 1, meaning another year of controversy seems likely. However, I feel it would be best to see their performance in a few weeks time and decide if they are more consistent given some practice.

Heroes and villains of NRL Round 1

It was a pretty foolish tackle. But their duo at prop was so ineffective that they had to be mentioned despite the actions of Williams. Waerea-Hargreaves can’t stop giving away penalties.

Heroes and villains of NRL Round 1

The re-signings of Everson Griffin and Sam Shields will probably have a big effect on the free agency period. Both are good players who were paid like great ones, meaning that other players at their positions will likely seek larger deals due to their contracts. If Shields is getting just under $10 million a season, surely corners like Verner and Talib think they deserve even more.

NFL free agency rumour mill

The 2009-10 Lakers and 2010-11 Mavericks both ranked in the Top-10 for defensive efficiency. Only one team since the 2002-03 season (Miami Heat 05-06) has won a championship with a defense outside the Top-10. In contrast, four teams have won championships in that time with an offense outside the Top-10 in efficiency. Surely the old adage of ‘defense wins championships’ does still exist in the modern NBA.

Why defence makes no sense

The official NRL eligibility rules state that a player may still be a rookie if they played in three or fewer games the season before. So even though Gubb debuted last year, he played less than three games, making him a rookie in 2014.

Tomkins played over 100 games in the English Super League, the NRL does not recognise him as a rookie player.

NRL rookies to watch out for in 2014

The 18th Man for injuries is a good idea but it feels unfair for the player who loses a lot of game time because they’re always waiting for an injury rather than playing in the reserves. However, the quality of the NRL comes first here, so it should be a viable option.

Concussions are still too common in the NRL. There are clearly some unbelievable things that people sue over in the US. Employees suffering from long-term brain damage is not one of them. A class-action suit has real potential to emerge if change doesn’t occur.

The NRL needs to put player health first

Even though Edwards is more likely to start the season in the Top 17, I think Santi has the ability to have a bigger season. He was pretty good in the NYC as a runner though he can get better. However, Parramattta struggled defensively and his defence is very impressive for a young player. If the team can’t stop opposition scoring, Santi could quickly become a regular in the top squad.

Peats is good enough to hold onto the hooker position for 2014 at the least.

NRL rookies to watch out for in 2014

You’re right that Gavet isn’t a rookie but even if he was, Brooks would have a much bigger impact for the Tigers.

Brooks could have a big season but his shot at the award depends a lot on the performance of the Tigers. I just don’t think they’ll get off the bottom quarter of the table this year. If they do, he’ll run away with it.

NRL rookies to watch out for in 2014

He can fill the role well enough for the Cowboys but I don’t think he’s more than a stop-gap option aged 28. He debuted in 2011.

The NRL stars set to shine through second year syndrome

I agree that some teams have multiple good second year players. But this is intended to show a single player from each squad.

Hiku was unbelievable during the finals period but it will be hard for him to get into the line-up.

Tedesco is definitely better than Moylan and McLean is an important player for Melbourne. But I think Stockwell might surprise some people this season.

The NRL stars set to shine through second year syndrome

Tomkins played in the Super League for years which means he can’t be labelled a rookie in the NRL. You can’t have played over three games in either top grade competition.

I thought Mbye was almost certain to spend the year in the lower grades despite his exceptional talent but after a strong preseason, he could become an important bench player. But that depends on if Des wants to bring him up that quickly.

NRL rookies to watch out for in 2014

Though a few of their juniors were quite impressive during the Nines tournament, it was an entirely different style of gameplay. The Warriors did not take a full-strength side to the tournament.

On a secondary point, most of the young players are outside backs who are behind Vatuvei, Nielsen, Locke, Fisiiahi and Laumape.

For rookies to make an impact, they need to get into the top grade first, not just the Nines. At this point, Gubb looks to be the rookie who will make the biggest impact.

NRL rookies to watch out for in 2014

That was definitely good news for Kahu and the Broncos, but places pressure on the new five-eighth to keep the position. Nikorima should be the rookie to watch after Strasser had a fairly poor preseason. Though Strasser has the more traditional skill-set, the playmaking ability of Nikorima has definitely put him in position to be in Brisbane’s halves at the start of the season. But if neither can perform well, Kahu can easily take the spot back when he returns.

NRL rookies to watch out for in 2014

Adding to what Illieno said, Feldt might even play in the weekend trial and should definitely be healthy for Round 1.

NRL rookies to watch out for in 2014

At this point in time, I still think that Wighton and Campese is the likely Round 1 halves pairing. Stuart seems to be a fan of Wighton and Campese should maintain his spot for now. If they want to bring Cornish along slowly and ease him into the NRL, he’ll probably start in the No. 14 jersey. But if either of the halves play poorly, or he shows he should be in the run-on squad, then he could quickly get into the starting halves.

NRL rookies to watch out for in 2014

I prefer the advanced metric of DVOA which takes into account the performance of opponents and the game situation. It then compares it to league average performance in that situation. DVOA refers to defense-adjusted value over average.

So under more traditional statistics, such as yards allowed, the 49ers would rank 5th at 316.9 yards per game. The best traditional statistic would be points allowed per game, where San Francisco ranks 3rd at 17.0. However, the issue with these stats are that they don’t take into account the context of the game.

For instance, passing for 300 yards against Jacksonville (ranked 26th in pass defense) and passing for 300 yards against Seattle (ranked 1st in pass defense) are not truly equal. Another example is that rushing for three yards on 3rd-and-2 and rushing for three yards on 2nd-and-15 are not equal. DVOA takes these situations into account.

So under the DVOA system, the 49ers rank 13th in total defense, which was down from 3rd last year. Nevertheless, the defense is still very good and has been playing better recently.

The Over/Under: conference championships

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