Good point with the Mavs, I think they slipped my mind because of the disaster that followed in the postseason. I agree with you completely, I knew the Spurs were better heading into the series, but wasn’t expecting Miami to collapse in such dramatic fashion. Effort was a real concern down the stretch in those last three games.

Luckily, they are fairly well placed to reload in the coming offseason. The Melo trade is ridiculous, I think Riley’s smart enough to bring in a half dozen role players who can re-stock the bench. They have a great coach, the world’s best player, and cap space. That’s a pretty solid recipe for future success. I think it’s vital though for Wade to take a real re-assessment of his role, and take the pay-cut that comes along with his current level of output.

Thanks! That’s a fair point about LeBron. Although he did play well throughout the series, I really only felt like he hit his higher gears in game 2. And the “only being motivated with our backs to the wall” thing has certainly been true of him in past seasons, he’s pretty much defined himself with big performances in elimination games.

Fair enough, but I’m honestly much more interested in understanding how you think this trade makes the Raptors ‘winners’.

While I certainly agree that Memphis and Detroit are better off for this trade, there’s no way the same can be said for the Raptors. Rudy is a huge gamble that comes with the max-est of max contracts. It was pretty clear in Memphis that if Gay was the best player on your team, you were putting a ceiling on your success. If Toronto are planning on Gay being their second option, then he’s woefully overpaid.

At this point, the Raptors have DeRozan, Bargnani, Gay and Lowry as their leading options, all with hefty pricetags. Not a single one has much interest in playing defence. As you already pointed out, the Raps traded away one of their only competent rebounders and interior defenders, to acquire another player with a questionable work ethic.

Toronto just doesn’t seem to be a happy place to send players who have had issues with effort in the past (see Turkoglu, Hedo).

The most disappointing part about this is that Toronto were on the brink of building a really healthy outlook for the next 5 or so seasons. They’ve drafted really well over the past three seasons, brought in a smart coach, and had plenty of cap flexibility to lock up promising youth. Now they’ve given away much of that advantage for a player who seemingly isn’t good enough to carry a contender. Where’s the upside?

Also, I have no idea how you could think that Memphis of all teams lacks depth in the frontcourt, they’re stacked with bigman talent. Many people are already predicting they’ll trade another forward (potentially Randolph) with the arrival of Davis.

Green Bay certainly did throttle the Vikings yesterday, although I wouldn’t read a whole lot into it, as the Vikings were pretty insipid. But let’s look at the numbers from the game.

The Vikings gained 167 rushing yards during the match (91 of which in the first half, i.e. not garbage time) at 5.8 an attempt: pretty strong stuff. The Packers on the other hand, managed only 76 at an average of 2.5. Yes, Kuhn ran in a touchdown, but he’s only a short yardage back who ran 3 times for a total of 4 yards. Green Bay’s two actual tailbacks in the game ran for averages of 2.8 and 1 yard a carry.

The GB defense did a good job of confusing an overmatched offensive unit that lost its composure early, but they never really did a great job of stopping the run, nor did Green Bay do a particularly convincing job of running it themselves.

Of course I wrote the article prior to the game, as is obvious from the timestamps on comments left above.

Hey WB, completely agree about Justin Smith. Aldon may be getting more press this year, but he’s ultimately quite one-dimensional, and far from the best player on the SF defence. I think you are selling the side a bit short. You did get cooked by the Pats, but that coincided with one of the best stretches from football that Brady has produced this side of 2007. I just thought your boys were flat against Seattle, as most teams have been when playing two big games in a row this season.

I think you’re selling the talent of your defence a little short with that assessment, as I can’t think of a better linebacker corps in the league right now. They’re big, athletic, and very physical, attributes that extend throughout most of the defensive unit. Being such a physically dominant team, I think the week off should give you a big leg up against GB (especially considering how suspect their pass protection has been this year).

Postseason records are simply misleading, in my opinion. Big Ben has two rings, but if you tried to even put him in the same ballpark as Manning you’d get laughed out of the room (it’s like the similarly preposterous “who is the better Manning” argument).

Brady enjoyed almost all of his postseason success in the early years of his career, but his best seasons as a QB certainly came later. Manning started slow, but has been very solid recently (as mentioned above).

I think Rogers certainly is currently the scariest QB in the league (look at what he’s done with little to work with this season). No one else can boast the depth and range of abilities he possesses. But the little things separate Brady and Manning from the rest of the field. I’m talking about stuff like pre-snap reads, understanding how to manipulate cadences, and having a really solid command over the pace of a drive.

The 2000 Ravens were one of the all time great defensive units, so that’s a very high bar to set for this Bengals unit. The other factor is that it’s harder to win with a ground and pound game in the current offensive iteration of the NFL. We’ll just have to wait and see how Cinci can go under the spotlight. In a podcast I did over at backpagelead.com.au I did rate them as a solid chance for the wildcard upset.

I think you kind of prove my point there, as I can’t think of a worse position to have your greatest talent. You can be an immensely talented WR, but if the rest of the offense is a bit mediocre then it’s pretty hard to impose yourself on the game, just ask Larry Fitzgerald. Adrian Peterson can get the job done with huge individual efforts, but it’s rare to see receivers doing the same without some help at other offensive positions

The other factor here is that Green hasn’t been that devastating this year. He isn’t top 5 in any stat except for catches of 40+ yards (at which his 7 leads the league). Football Outsiders’ DYAR stat (I keep quoting these guys because I think their stats are the most useful) places him as the 23rd best WR in the league. In short, he’s an explosive, exciting deep threat reciever, but I’m not convinced he’s involved enough to swing the outcome of a playoff game. But wildcard round games are often crazy, so you never know, you could be right!

Farmerj, I’m a huge Pats homer, and there is no sportsperson in the world I admire more than Brady. The level of execution he’s been able to maintain for what, a decade, has been absurd. Buuuuuuuuut, I still have to say that Peyton’s better. Aside from the MVP trophies and the bulk of stats the one factor I use to split the two at this point is the help each received.

Although we may argue over who the greatest qb of this era is, I don’t think there can be any similar argument over head coach. Belichick has reshaped the league on both sides of the ball, multiple times, and (as he’s also the GM) has somehow kept his team at an elite level through many iterations without any significant dips.

Manning had Jim Mora and Tony Dungy, two coaches with mixed track records. Additionally, Manning had a much larger control over the Colts offence (haven’t done much research into the current situation at Denver) than Brady has ever held over his own. Ultimately, I think Peyton is simply more talented, and can claim more responsibility over the success of his teams than Brady. The obvious example at this point is the Matt Cassell season when Brady went down. The pats had enough talent, and Belichick worked enough magic to get the Patriots to the cusp of the playoffs with an incredibly average QB.

This is the kind of topic that deserves a much more comprehensive breakdown, but simply put: despite my adoration of the man, I can’t rationally claim that Brady is the best of this era.

Have you forgotten the Falcons deliberately or by accident here?

Generally the MVP award doesn’t go to a player on the hottest team, but the team that’s had the best season. Peyton Manning won multiple MVP awards in seasons when the Colts fell to bits at the end.

Surely Ryan leads the voting at this point, having lead his side to the only undefeated record in the league.

Eli does’t lead the league in passing yards, but is third. He has only thrown 12 touchdowns to 8 interceptions, not a particularly great ratio, and, as you point out, he doesn’t crack the top ten in passer rating this season. Yes, he does get better in the final quarter, but the MVP winner is generally a statistical leader on a team with a strong record.

Similarly, I don’t know how you could class this season as a disappointment for Drew Brees, he’s been electric despite missing some of his favourite targets. He may trail those you mentioned in completion %, but he’s still top 10 in QBR. When you’re team keeps losing in shootout situations, it’s generally not the quarterback’s fault.

I’m not really convinced about Leandro. Loved him at Phoenix where his speed really fit the team’s approach. But the Celtics have always looked best when they pass the ball fluidly, and he always seemed like a ball-stopper. Perhaps with a bit of exciting youth on the unit we’ll see Boston push the tempo a bit, but right now I don’t see him integrating particularly well with the team. Mind you, he can produce some decent shots on his own, so maybe that’s all they’re looking for from him.

Great article, mushi, although I do get pretty bummed out when I think of Greg.

Given the dearth of quality size in the NBA I’m really shocked no one’s taking a flier on the guy. If the Lakers click there will be quite a few teams in the West who need depth at Centre to cope.

One question, what stat are you referring to here?

“Over Oden’s first 82 games had a percentage of 19.5 (much higher than Durant’s)”

If Smith’s best attribute is his modesty, then he sure as hell shouldn’t be the next Immortal. As has been pointed out repeatedly over the past fortnight character has no bearing on the selection, despite the furtive hopes of those who are upset about Joey’s misdemeanours.

Definitely a great player, but is he even the sure pick for best player of his generation, or even team? I know plenty of people who seem to think Billy is the best stormtrooper. This isn’t a belief that I hold myself, but it does call into question whether Smith deserves to be considered an all-time great.

Not really sure how Seattle or Arizona could be considered the most impressive performances from an entire team. Neither team was able to produce much offensively.

For mine, I’d say that Houston and Baltimore were the most consistently impressive teams this week. Both had an impressive day passing and rushing, and got strong showings from their defence against quite talented units.

Alfred, why do you think Brees is missing offensive weapons? There hasn’t been a huge turnover in personnel from the supercharged offense they had last yea.

Completely agree, mushi. The Cards defensive and offensive lines both outplayed their opponents, and they certainly had an advantage on special teams, but Kolb did not outplay Brady.

To be honest, the whole concept of quarterbacks “outplaying” each other is a little silly unless they start suiting up on defence.

The Pats upset was certainly shocking, but you can chalk a lot of that up to the early loss of Hernandez. The Patriots have built their entire offence around a two tight-end scheme, which makes both Hernandez and Gronk the least replaceable players on the offense (after Brady, of course). You could even argue that Hernandez is more important than Gronkowski as he is so important to Belichick’s scheming, and is the most versatile player on their offence.

The offensive line never really gave Brady a chance to take control of the match until the fourth quarter, although he was certainly sub-par throughout the match. I think a lot of people assumed that once they got Lloyd back it’d be like 2007 all over again. But Brady hasn’t had a deep ball for quite a few seasons, and missed on two deep chances in this match.

They’ll be pretty concerned about going into Baltimore next week without Hernandez, but Brady has a knack of putting together big games on national television.

An interesting post, mushi, if unfortunate in its timing as Vilma and Smith were obviously cleared to play between writing and publishing.

It is at least lucky that Payton was the offensive co-ordinator and not the defensive one, as I believe Drew can make up a lot of the lost ground in his ability to control what happens on the field. I do agree that good teams with bad coaching tend to struggle, but there have been exceptions. Most notably, Peyton Manning did get the Colts to the Super bowl in the 2009 season with less talent on offense than the Saints have, and with Jim Caldwell on the sidelines. The Saints’ situation is obviously more extreme, but I do think they’ll still at least snag a wildcard spot this season.

As a Broncos fan, mushi, I’m assuming you watched the games (as I did). Are you honestly saying you weren’t confident when he lined up close to the goal, or going for a 2-point conversion?

Fair enough, I don’t disagree with any of this. I simply misunderstood you’re initial statement as “Tebow isn’t effective at running”.

No need to get carried away FTT. Tebow did beat up on some weak teams last year, but he also beat some pretty solid defensive units: the Jets, the Bears, and the Steelers were all pretty elite defensive units last year. Tebow isn’t incredible, but he did a pretty decent job of protecting the ball and allowing the defensive and special teams components of his teams to keep the Broncos in it.

Was there anyone as unstoppable as Tebow when running a goal line offense last year? You could maybe put a claim in for Cam Newton, but I honestly can’t remember that wildcat play failing much when they got inside 10 yards from the end zone.

To be clear, I’m talking about rushing stats here, purely in response to you saying he isn’t good as a running QB. Excuse the long link, but these are the stats I was looking at.

http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?tabSeq=0&season=2011&seasonType=REG&d-447263-n=1&d-447263-o=2&d-447263-p=1&statisticCategory=RUSHING&conference=null&d-447263-s=RUSHING_YARDS_PER_GAME_AVG

mushi, that stat is probably dragged down by the fact that he is a very scratchy thrower of the ball. I’m not crazy about that QBR stat, although I’m not a huge Eli Manning fan I think it’s unfair to rank him 15th last year.

Tebow ran for 47.1 yards a game last season which placed him as the best rushing QB in the league. His yards per attempt were 5.4, which placed him on par with Newton, but well behind Vick who managed to grab 7.8 an attempt.

I find Tebow frustrating to watch because he seems to defy basic NFL logic, but the reality is I saw him make a look of pretty respectable defenders look foolish with his strength and agility.