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Joined January 2014
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Superb couch tactician. Blogger at http://fishyscyclingpreviews.weebly.com/
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This 143 kilometres stage into Parracombe is a new addition to the Tour Down Under, and the first time the tiny Adelaide Hills town…
The Australian National Road Championship course is the deciding factor on who wins any cycling race, but this circuit (in use since 2012, with…
The last Tour de France winner without much in the way of pre-Tour de France form was Carlos Sastre, who took the 2008 Tour…
It's a good time of the season to look at the contenders for the Grand Tours and how they've been faring in the early…
The first World Tour race is upon us and the podium of the Australian National Championships of Simon Gerrans, Cadel Evans and Richie Porte…
Will be a day for the tactics and politics of the peleton I’d guess. Orica-Greenedge did a ton of work yesterday, I doubt they’d be prepared to do it again. If they could get someone on decent time into the breakaway, like Durbridge/Santoromita, then they’d have the luxury of letting it go, knowing that they’d have the jersey at the end of the day in all likelihood, no matter how the stage goes.
If the breakaway gets chased down, then we’ll see the same guys as yesterday fight out the finish. I think Finetto might get a look in as well, decent climber with a fast acceleration.
2014 Giro d’Italia: Stage 6 preview
Rolland’s best result (7th) this season has been from a break, he hasn’t even cracked the top 20 yet in a mountain stage
I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see a significant break make a big difference in the race, and maybe if we can see Rolland, Bouet, Zoidl, Bongiorino, or their like make up 5 minutes or so on an insignificant stage then we could see one of those interesting races where an unlikely leader gets dragged gradually back to the main contenders. But Rolland is slighty to big a name to get in to that sort of break, so I’ll be surprised to see him anywhere near that top 10.
Ten key questions about the 2014 Giro d'Italia
I’ll defend my top ten. Arrendondo is my bolter, and he’s got all the attributes necessary to be a great GC rider. In good form as well in the stage races as well as looking strong in the Ardennes classics. Super impressed with how he has done in his first season.
Niemiec/Cunego think Cunego will lead, better form plus he’s Italian.
Caruso has been great behind Rodriguez this season, and stepped up in his absence and finished 4th in Liege, another outsider but I think he’ll be given a free role if Rodriguez is still suffering from his injuries. Santoromita won’t be in the top 10, but I wouldn’t be surprised if he wasn’t in the mix till late in the third week. Mostly because he aimed for this race for the whole season, and will be suited by the first few weeks. I also included him to show some OGE love, and to exclude Kiserlovski, who will finish top 10, but not be mentioned once during the entire race… wheel sucker.
Been surprised to see Rolland in people’s top selctions, he’s not really a consistent rider in Grand Tours, and he tends to be a stage poacher more than anything.
Ten key questions about the 2014 Giro d'Italia
Is Niemiec going to be the leader with Cunego in pretty good form? Here’s how the top 10 will definitely (well almost definitely) pan out.
1. Quintana 2. Evans 3. Pozzovivo 4. Roche 5. Rodriguez 6. Arredondo 7. Cunego 8. Kelderman 9. G. Caruso 10. Santoromita
Ten key questions about the 2014 Giro d'Italia
Not sure I agree with you here, Porte pulled out due to his series of illnesses which effectively finished his chances of a good preparation, and with it any chance of performing well at the Giro. He’ll save some energy for the Tour, and will be stronger when he’s helping out Froome in the mountains. This would have been the main consideration for him and Team Sky in the decision, and yes, it’s probably better than him struggling his way to a top-30 spot on GC.
In terms of Australian cycling, it is so rare to see an Australian leading a Grand Tour squad for the GC, that I think it’s a little disappointing that we didn’t get to see one of the first times that Australia had two real top chances lining up. For Richie, as well, I’m not sure it’s beneficial, chances to be a leader at a team are few and far between, and there is a danger that he gets pigeon-holed as a super domestique, in the same way that a guy like Chris Horner was for most of his career.
Why Richie Porte pulling out of the Giro d'Italia is a good thing
Moser won the ’84 Giro as well, so he probably doesn’t quite fit your argument.
I was surprised to see Wiggins doing as well as he did, given that he has very little history in the event or on the cobbles in general, and questionable bike-handling skills. But he was very good, and you would think that he’ll only get better with a more attuned cobbles preparation as you’ve said.
My main obstacle to seeing Wiggins winning a one-day race is his lack of explosive power for an attack to distance his rivals. He hasn’t been great at getting those one-day race results or even stage wins on normal road stages(think almost all his victories in stages have been against the clock) and that highlights the problem. Don’t get me wrong, he’s a fantastic cyclist and I don’t think that it’s impossible for him to win a Roubaix, just not likely.
Wiggins can win Paris-Roubaix next year
Not far off, Vandenbergh certainly wasn’t prepared to make any pace for the others. Thought he had it at on his first big attack. Vanmarcke made a bit of a mistake there, dragging Cancellara back over to the front two.
2014 Tour of Flanders: Preview and live blog
They left that sprint very late. Cancellara finally started that sprint at the 200, so it was hard for the guys behind to get any slipstream effect benefit from him, and with his power, he was too hard to get past.
2014 Tour of Flanders: Preview and live blog
Definitely not with the way the gap is melting away.
2014 Tour of Flanders: Preview and live blog
OPQS just controlling all these half-attacks easily, and marking the major move of Van Avermaet. Smart stuff.
2014 Tour of Flanders: Preview and live blog
What do you think of this tactically from OPQS? Good in as much as they don’t have to chase it, but vandenbergh isn’t going to beat anyone in a sprint…
2014 Tour of Flanders: Preview and live blog
That second group looks like the crucial break. all the big favourites and a host of OPQS riders.
2014 Tour of Flanders: Preview and live blog
Suprised OPQS didn’t opt to push on then, with Cancellara and Sagan isolated. Maybe they were waiting up for Vandenbergh. Haven’t seen Vanmarke recently, he in there?
2014 Tour of Flanders: Preview and live blog
Sep Vanmarke has to be in with a big show for both you would think. As for Sagan, Boonen and Cancellara’s presence didn’t stop him going away in E3-Harelbeke, and to be honest, all he needs to do is stick with Spartacus and Boonen, and then rely on his sprint.
OPQS are an absolute powerhouse team though, Terpstra, Vandenbergh, Keirsbulck and Steegemans are all potential winners, and are all threatening riders that Cancellara and Sagan can’t let ride out to a big gap, and Boonen can just sit on and let them do the work.
What we know ahead of Flanders and Paris-Roubaix
I’m just getting into the cobbled classics this year, SBS isn’t big on showing them. It’s a whole different style of racing to the normal scene, where you can often see a small group hold off a peleton of 40+, just because they’re a lot better at positioning themselves and then also at actually going over the cobbles.
A lot more fun for the viewer as well, with all the breaks coming and going, and tactics constantly being at the forefront of the commentators’ discussions.
Anyone know why Wiggins is riding these? Doesn’t really seem a natural fit for him.
Bring on the bumpy roads
I’m just getting into the cobbled classics this year, SBS isn’t big on showing them. It’s a whole different style of racing to the normal scene, where you can often see a small group hold off a peleton of 40+, just because they’re a lot better at positioning themselves and then also at actually going over the cobbles.
A lot more fun for the viewer as well, with all the breaks coming and going, and tactics constantly being at the forefront of the commentators’ discussions.
Anyone know why Wiggins is riding these? Doesn’t really seem a natural fit for him.
Bring on the bumpy roads
Obviously there’s more factors than how each rider is going, I haven’t taken a close look at the TDF or Vuelta course yet. The Giro I have, but the main problem with judging this far out is that it’s impossible to tell who’ll be riding in support of the contenders.
For the TDF Froome can definitely be beaten, and I’d pick Contador and Van Garderen as being right up there with him, maybe even Valverde and Gesink as outsiders. I know that there is a cobbled stage this year, which could play havoc with the race.
For the Giro, there’s a Team Time Trial and 2 Individual Time Trials, one flat and pretty long, the other a long climb. Apart from those a ton of mountain and hill-top finishes.
I see Rodriguez as being really favoured by the parcours, particularly early on, and the final week is just a solid block of climbing which is where we’ll see the race decided. Nonetheless, I think that Quintana is almost a lock, as much as anything in cycling is a lock (not much).
2014's Grand Tour favourites (part 2)
Definitely a bit premature this article, when you consider which races Orica-Greenedge are looking to target, the nationals, the TDU and Milan-San Remo would have been the three main goals. The MSR was obviously the big disappointment of those, but with Gerrans sick there were valid excuses, even if the team had hoped for better from Matthews.
As for the cobbled classics. they should barely rate a mention when talking about Orica’s season. As OPQS, Belkin have shown, you need a core of cobbled specialists to make an impact on these races. That, or a freakish talent like Cancellara or Sagan. OGE can’t hope to win a Flanders, Roubaix or even an E3, so instead they’ve aimed Durbridge at De Panne, where he looked strong last night, and given Hayman and Keukeliere a free hand to try their luck.
That said, it would be nice to see the captains of OGE a bit more. Gerrans, Albasini, Santoromita and Weening have been down on form when they have appeared this year, and it would be nice to be talking about wins for them rather than promising finishes by Yates, Howard, et al.
The real goals for the rest of this year will be getting results at the grand tours and the Ardennes classics, and the lack of wins in the races to date hardly precludes them achieving those goals.
Is it time to worry about Orica-GreenEDGE’s results?
Kittel has always really struggled up hills, he is as pure a sprinter as there is in the pro peleton. Greipel is a lot tougher, but must have been really hurt by the hill to not dominate that sprint. Interesting Stirling stage today looks tailor made for Gerrans in his current form.
Is Tour Down Under history about to repeat itself?
A coach’s main job is deciding how a team will play and setting up the structures and discipline to get it done. Has Price done that? Probably not, but I doubt whether bringing in player X from the U20s or NSW Cup will solve the problem that the Dragons have, which is consistently gaining metres. Against the weaker sides, they’ll rack up some wins with the talent in their backline, but against a solid defensive outfit, they’ll struggle to get a foothold in the game.
Is it time for radical surgery at the Dragons?