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Joined September 2014
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Searching for victories through numbers.
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Now that we're down to the final two teams contesting the grand final, predicting who will win has become a lot easier - and…
I think ranking Hawthorn v West Coast at #26 and close to the bottom of the list is pretty accurate. I’ve ranked the 2010 Collingwood v St Kilda replay the lowest (because it probably was anyway), but also because it was a disappointment after the high dramas of the drawn match the week before.
Ranking the best grand finals of the AFL era
I could rank it higher than the 2014 Port Adelaide v Brisbane Grand Final, but not sure it could go any further than the 1992, 1997 or 2001 Grand Finals.
Ranking the best grand finals of the AFL era
I agree the 1989 is probably the greatest Grand Final of all time, but this ranking is from the AFL era, when the name of the Victorian Football League was changed to Australian Football League. It’s impossible to rank all the Grand Finals since 1897 – different skill levels and different eras, so I decided it was cleaner to create a ranking of a similar era, and commence from 1990. How can the 1937 and 1989 Grand Finals be adequately compared? Or with the 2012 Grand Final?
Ranking the best grand finals of the AFL era
Fremantle was a tough opponent for Sydney in the Qualifying Final, there’s no question about that. It’s true that Hawthorn ‘clocked off’ against Port, but that type of thinking almost cost them the game. Usually, the momentum from the finals series is carried over into the Grand Final, and that lapse in the final five minutes of the Preliminary Final will be costly to Hawthorn.
Top line sport, including AFL, is based on small advantages here and there, momentum being one of them. I’ve placed great emphasis on finals in these statistics, for a number of reasons. They are played at a much higher level than other home-and-away matches, and they are the matches that teams have played most recently (why take into account Sydney’s loss to GWS in Round 1? That was almost a season away!).
The Swan’s ‘easy’ draw idea doesn’t stack up – they actually played more games against other top 8 teams than their opponent, and there is simply no evidence that they were ‘gifted’ an easy draw.
Yes, they did land Tippett and Franklin through the assistance of the Cost of Living Allowance, but did they do this ‘dodgily’? No, it was all above board and the COLA advantage has been seriously overblown
The AFL signed off and approved the Franklin deal, Adelaide was behind any dodginess in the Tippett deal, and was appropriately sanctioned by the AFL. And with the treatment of Sanderson, who would want to stay at Adelaide anyway?
Stats and momentum say Sydney won't beat Hawthorn, they'll destroy them
Totally agree with you. Using this formula, I predicted the Swans would win the 2012 Grand Final on The Roar.
See this post: http://www.theroar.com.au/2012/09/27/swans-set-to-defy-the-odds-yet-again/ about half way down the page.
Not blowing my own trumpet, but there are good statistical supports behind Sydney doing it again on Saturday.
Stats and momentum say Sydney won't beat Hawthorn, they'll destroy them
I’m not doubting Hawthorn’s abilities, only pointing out that these reliable statistics are overwhelmingly in favour of a Sydney victory on Saturday. Back-to-back flags is a serious accomplishment, as you suggest, but it’s not likely to happen this year.
Stats and momentum say Sydney won't beat Hawthorn, they'll destroy them
Statistics are what AFL is all about and ARE very important. After all, the most meaningful aspect is to score the most points in a game – and that’s a statistic. To paraphrase Julia Gillard, they don’t mean everything, they don’t mean nothing. But they mean something.
Every coaches’ box is replete with Apple Macs, analysing every aspect and every statistic of the game. Statisticians look for patterns in behaviour – I’ve analysed many other parts of the game: inside 50s, most disposals, the amount of time a team leads during a match (yes, there is a statistic for that too), accuracy in attack, inaccuracy in defence, but having a benefit in these areas isn’t necessarily a marker of success, as Hawthorn found out in the 2012 Grand Final.
By the way, the Swans have led for an incredible 77 per cent of game time this year, Hawthorn have led for 66 per cent of game time – but this is not relevant, as the most important statistic is who is ahead at the end of the game.
After analysing the statistics of all of these results and available figures going back 24 years, the most meaningful was the performance of the two Grand Final teams DURING the finals. We’ll see at 5.30 on Saturday afternoon.
Anyway it’s good to look at statistics, rather than the endless discussion about how the Cost Of Living Allowance is going to be the sole reason behind a likely Swans’ victory on Saturday.
Stats and momentum say Sydney won't beat Hawthorn, they'll destroy them
Yes, Hawthorn did have the better performance stats, compared to Geelong, during the finals in 2008 prior to the Grand Final. And it showed on the day.
Stats and momentum say Sydney won't beat Hawthorn, they'll destroy them
It’s primarily about statistics and assessing patterns over a 24-year period in the finals, especially since 2000. Statistics provide guidance, rather than exact predictions. By the way, I’m not a Swans fan (Collingwood is my team) – not that this matters – it’s all about the statistics. I agree that Hawthorn should not be underestimated – I don’t think many people would be – but it’s not looking that good for them.
Stats and momentum say Sydney won't beat Hawthorn, they'll destroy them
I’ve analysed all the stats, horoscopes, biorhythms, tea leaves, dream analysis, and have predicted the winner and the final score:
http://farm9.staticflickr.com/8032/8037244723_ff05dc7694_z.jpg
Enough about Buddy: Kennedy and McGlynn to lead Swans to premiership triumph
This analysis only goes up to 2015, and includes all AFL-era grand finals (1990 onwards). Similar but different, although the top choice (2012 Sydney v Hawthorn) is the same. https://www.theroar.com.au/2016/09/26/ranking-best-grand-finals-afl-era/
Every grand final of the 2000s, ranked first to 24th: Which classic is 'the most underrated decider in footy history'?