Hi Floyd,
Justin is correct there are two reserves a bit like the greyhounds and they just come in if required. I suppose there is more urgency to run horses in HK with only two meetings a week, where as trainers here have seven day a week programming to work to. Once HK trainers pay up for races, they are loathed to scratch their runners. The competition is incredibly fierce, I think horses that have 1-2 wins in 20 starts over there would probably win multiple Saturday handicaps here.

Profile data is right on age, weights and barriers if you like them drawn inside. Quinella was a 6yo barrier 5 53.5kg and a 5yo barrier 2 53.5kg. Fourth was a 5yo barrier 10 51kg.

Box them all up next year regardless of form and count the cash.

Hey Phil,
Sanagas has had three quarter mile plus increases in distance during his racing career: 2000-2600, 2200-2600 (US) and 2000-2400 (Caulfield) winning twice and running well in the CC. On trend and with Bart’s touch he is bound to relish the step up to 2 miles. Great roughie for the multiples.

Hey Sheek,
I think we underestimate how good these European stayers are fresh (re Red Cadeaux). It is a very expensive undertaking to bring a horse half way around the world and this horse has been set for this race. Ed said immediately after the Cup last year to Micky Rodd “don’t book a ride next year, I’ll be back again with this horse”. Ed knows exactly what he is doing (unless something has gone a miss and we haven’t been told) and if that is 4 month lay off so be it. He said he wanted to bypass the Caulfield Cup in favour of getting more track work into him and go straight into the Cup. He might have more dash at the end of 3200 without a lead in race and Dunaden might have peaked as he was originally set for the Arc earlier in the season. We’ll know in 18 hours but I’m very keen on Red Cadeaux and Mount Athos fresh.

G’day Phil,
You might be right there as the track was pretty firm on Saturday and apparently Winnie’s sectionals were good. Personally I can’t have have an American mile and a half entire who is content sitting out the back and rolling into the race late. He will finish somewhere between 8-15 I’d suggest.

I was climbing walls to back Americain after his Caulfield Cup run until I heard he was changing to glue on shoes. I can’t recall too many horses with glue on shoes winning, let alone arguably the strongest Melbourne Cup we have seen. Besides since 2010 he’s only won two moderate Australian Group 1’s against no decent internationals (except Mourayan as an import who has only won 3 races in his career).
I was dead against Dunaden expecting him to carry 59 and run a strong 2 miles but I think he is the second/third best stayer in the world (with Danedream and Sea Moon), the weights are so compressed and that’s good enough to win this race with 59kg.
We’ve hardly had any rain in Melbourne for weeks, the track is firm and no international relished on it on Derby Day. It will take 30mm of rain to take it to a Dead5 and I doubt we’ll get anything like that. You need horses that will stay the 2 miles and not feel the ground. That’s Dunaden, Mount Athos, Red Cadeaux, Maluckyday and Mourayan for mine. Throw Americain into the multiples with Sanagas best roughie.

PS – great write up JC.

Nice tips Ryan but don’t you think these weights are so compressed (i.e. 95% are only 6kg under Dunaden), therefore weight in the modern era of top European horses is far less of a concern? People were questioning the weight in the Caulfield Cup and he won a hcp with 13 Group 1 winners with top weight easily…

True Kiwi but there are 18 o/s/imported horses to start narrowing down from!

ATH is a miler nothing more. Jumped perfectly, switched off, got the perfect run and ran his last 200 in 12.46 with 49.5kg. That is the equivalent of riding the Titanic across the Atlantic when you could be in a learjet. If he runs out the 2040 with all those favours he wins easily.
Ocean Park is the best wfa horse in the southern hemisphere. Deserved the win.
With luck Maluckyday will win the Melbourne Cup. Going better than 2 years ago proved by the Geelong Cup (10.92 last 200 with 58.5kg), drops to 53.5kg and we know he will stay the trip.

Heck thanks, I’ll need to make a SS trade…

I personally think if anyone likes Glencadam Gold, they should also consider Folding Gear. Both progressive 5 year olds, with a good winning strike rate and FG is a track specialist who gets in really well at the weights for a peak run. Gets a lovely trail just off the speed from an inside barrier with a good jock. Glad you put him in your top 8 Justin, he’s in my betting calculations and star stable!

Comprehensive analysis Justin as usual.
I’m pretty sure Dunaden’s hoof problem occurred before he travelled o/s and his work at Werribee has been as good as anything over there so it does not worry me in the slightest. He is the best most adaptable 2400m horse in the race and with luck just wins and wins well. the weights are quite compressed and the only horses the connections feared were well weighted against him are not there (Manighar and Red Cadeaux). I can not pretend the gate is not an issue as he is something like odds of 50-1 from outside gates, however those stats don’t include many mile and half horses of his calibre. No doubt he gets back a bit looking for cover but hopefully that is better than midfield. I think he’s a morale to run in the first four so that makes him a winning chance. Glencadam Gold will take some running down and if the track is not too firm I think My Quest for Peace and Lights of Heaven are the main dangers. I’ll be there with bells on looking forward to it!

Hi Tristan,
I haven’t seen the sectionals yet but I don’t think the pace was too hot. Winner sat off them and leader ran a credible fourth. Must have been excellent runs to fill the placings from further back. Brilliant ride by Oli and the horse showed us a gear change we hadn’t seen before. As they were a pretty even bunch, one only had to produce its best to win and she did that decisively. Congratulations to Brad Spicer and connections, he’s a fantastic guy, runs a good bloodstock business and gets his owners into winners.

Two obvious runs towards the Oaks were Dear Demi which was close to pre-post favourite and Zydeco, which will trim up nicely. Both look suited to the longer Flemington straight.

He’ll run and win. The tempo won’t be mad like the Guineas, he will posy up nicely before the turn and just scoot away with too much weight pull on the older horses. His race and gallop at the Valley were outstanding, clearly it is his best track the Melbourne direction. I don’t think ATH will run (be saved for the Derby) but if he does, back and wide at the Valley is unsuitable, especially for raw 3YOs ala Samantha Miss.

Hi Justin,
Great thoughts, insight and analysis.

JC wrote “this year’s Caulfield Cup could boast the strongest overseas contingent in its history”. This is the sort of fact that could swing the race to an international. As far as I am concerned Dunaden is one of the best 2400m horses in the world, certainly the best available at Caulfield in just over a fortnight. There are a few knocks on him, first time at Caulfield, top weight, foot issue but champions can overcome adversity to win. C. Williams takes the ride, has won on him twice and he believes a firm flat track like Caulfield suits him nicely. It will be a strong race though and I think his main dangers are the mares Lights of Heaven (prematurely last years early favourite) and Southern Speed.

I’m not prepared to give up on Mount Athos yet but the knocks you raise are a worry. However if an experienced Australian visitor like Luca thinks he should be fresh into the race with R. Moore aboard, I’ll back him in. Luca is more comfortable with a light weight rider he knows than one he doesn’t. Technically internationals have won at their first Australian runs in the last two Geelong Cups (visitor Mosse on Americain), so it may not be long before that occurs in the Cup. He set the horse for the race in May.

I’m also not prepared to say Green Moon won’t run out the 3200m, Lloyd’s horses usually run any distance he sets them for. Based on his 2000-2500m form I have backed Mourayan at the $51 still on offer but there is also a little query on the two miles for him. Ibicenco is all the rage among astute racing journalists who have reported him to be flogging other track workers. If he gets a run I will be on him too.

You’re spot on with Pierro, I wonder if he could be a late entry for the Derby? Looking back at the previous winners of the Guineas, I think he will be the best since Mahogany in 1993 or his father Lonhro in 2001. Something fairly dramatic would have to go wrong for him not to win the Cox Plate. Ocean Park looks like he will run a bold race along with More Joyous and Manighar who is being set to peak for the Cox and Cup.

I’ll be cheering for Zurella this week as she is in my Cups-Plate trebles but I fear she will find some of these hardened Flemington horses a bit too good on Saturday.

Thanks for the tip on Honorius I have added him to my Star Stable! Have you set up a league for Roarers?

Great job Justin. Waterford Hill beat Bianmick 6 starts back, he’s much better than his last run!

I just rewound to watch a replay. Excluded did a bit of work early, got posted wide at the first bend, pulled a couple of times then found himself in front (upside down). They settled mid race and he looked ok but they absolutely poured the speed on about the 600-500 mark and he was left flat footed. Got a check in the straight and in a better field than he is used to he couldn’t sprint with them.

Full credit to the winner who absolutely flew from about the 500. Also a good run by Fruehling follow next run.

I’d go Atlantic from Caviar from Joyous. Girl power! Pierro beat the juvies sprinting but I think the older season sprinters would have his measure.

haha who would win nan?

I got him at $7 for the Cox only catch is it’s in trebles with Lights of Heaven and Dunaden to win the Caulfield Cup into Mount Athos to win the Melbourne Cup. Alive but I need a lot of luck along the way!

True. Strangely he went from a handicapper rating of 84 in the Guineas to 92 in the Cox even though he got beaten 5 lengths then jumped up to 115 winning the race into the Emirates. To put that in context it would be like Jimando being beaten 5 lengths in the Guineas again, somehow improving his rating and then winning the Cox Plate! That first SYT Cox must have to rate right down on quality…

It is easy to get carried away with a win like that in moderate company but with the natural improvement he’ll take from that run into the Caulfield Guineas he’ll be very hard to catch in a cox plate. He was pretty zippy late and I can see him running as well as So You Think as a 3yo in the event.

I do not want to be on Pierro in a photo finish he has a tiny head! Lol should not be a problem tonight but Viewed’s long snoz practically won him a Melbourne Cup!

Sydney 3yos are slaughtering the Melbourne 3yos this spring. I thought the Victorian’s were going well before the winter but the NSWelshmen are proving more dominant now across the board.

Am I correct in saying Snitzerland has also been undefeated since the Golden Slipper? Two stars of the future…