With Australian hopes sky high after Saturday’s game, the question is; just how much can we read into this victory? Already New Zealanders are putting their spin on it; from Graham Henry ‘the loss we needed to have, it’ll be good for us’. It was after all, a home game for the Wallabies and the All Blacks were half way through a grueling tour. Surely this is just a one game blip. Or is it?
First of all, what will this loss really mean to the All Blacks themselves?
Anton Oliver gave a fascinating insight into this with an interview on the day before the game. In it he said ‘they (Australia) are somewhat more mature than other countries in that, if a performance doesn’t go their way, they are able to just flush that, pick themselves up and play the next week. It doesn’t sink them. If New Zealand were to lose a game, the economy goes skyrocketing down. Domestic violence goes up … well, I am not sure that happens. But we possibly take it far more seriously.’.
This is the key to the All Black psyche, the pressure that they and all of New Zealand put on winning rugby games is like the pressure of water behind a dam – one small crack and the lot comes down. The water pressure for the 2007 RWC is unprecedented. In monetary terms alone the NZRFU have bet the farm on this cup; in just the 2006 financial year they are NZ$5 million in the red. It’s shit or bust.
However, it was not this pressure alone that defeated the 15 men in black at the G. On Saturday night the Wallabies did what the best Australian teams have done over the years, they soaked up (or more accurately coped with) what the opposition had to throw at them in the first half, learnt from it, and changed their game accordingly in the second. And what a change.
The All Blacks had not lost a game that they led at half time for 56 tests for good reason. Australia, however, ran two (almost three) unanswered tries straight through their centre in the second half. Much has been made of the Hayman yellow card, but this was the result of attacking pressure from the Wallabies in All Black territory. Hayman’s was the third All Black ruck infringement in the 3 minutes leading up to his sin-binning and there had been similar cynical penalties in the first 40.
But this was not the only pressure that Australia exerted. Leading up to the last World Cup, Clive Woodward said that it was a statistical certainty; the side that gave away the fewest penalties in their half of the field would win the cup. In the second half, Australia gave away no silly defensive penalties, denying Carter the chance to hone his kicking radar, and denying the All Blacks the chance to lift the pressure on themselves. Want to know why a quality and experienced player like Mauger spilt that pass and put that kick out on the full? You got it, pressure.
And then there’s the final piece in the All Black pressure jigsaw; learned behaviour. In big games over the years, Australia more than any other team, has shown how to beat New Zealand when they seem unbeatable. As with those big games – including two notable RWC semis – the All Blacks on saturday seem stunned, unable to find another plan or gear. You can’t tell me that this negative thought didn’t sneak into All Black minds when the tide turned on 61st minute. Not exactly what you need at a crucial time in a tight test.
For the Wallabies, although they wisely play this result down, it’s value is immeasurable. With it, Knuckles’ story of steady improvement hangs together and most importantly, in the Stade de France on the 13th October, there could well be an Australian team that still knows they can beat the All Blacks.
[read more of Matt’s work here]
Ben from Pretoria
Guest
People forget that Waylon Murray, Ruan Pienaar, JP Petersen, Derick Hougaardt are all S14 Finalists. So is Gary Botha, Bobby Skinstad and a few others. Yes, what a bunch of losers!
DF6
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Jerome Mate the all blacks started their campaign for this world cup oh about 3 years ago, 3 years to find their best combinations, best moves, therefore their best form. When England won the last world cup they didnt find their form that year, they dominated the game in 2002 right through to RWC 2003 If we judged a team by their form this year, you would be crazy to say the all blacks are favourites to win the world cup, you would go as far as saying they will probably make the semis
Jerome
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I think that scoreline sounds pretty spot on. Australia look like they have 2-3 tries in them against this SA lineup...maybe even more, and australias defence is very good at the moment. I think hougaard will score a lot of points through penalaties and drop goals...seems to be his style. Cant see the Saffies scoring to many points. They generally dont travel well either... And no team takes 12-16 months to find their form! it is within a test season we judge a team finding form.....so, its either they peak in this season at the start, or now, or in WC towards the end of the season,. Pick one
Sam Taulelei
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Jerome you have your own opinion but I disagree that the Wallabies backs are clicking better on the back of last weeks game. Incidentally the backline only began to fire when Giteau went to halfback midway through the second half. Up until then they hadn't threatened to break the line and only created one tryscoring chance with Larkhams grubber over the tryline. I had commented to my Australian wife at halftime that it was quite a boring game as it didn't look (at that stage) like the Aussies were capable of scoring tries and I don't enjoy one sided matches as much as close contests. I'm going for the Boks by a drop goal tomorrow night. I'm a fan of Waylon Murray and JP Pietersen and the Boks will have the edge in speed out wide over the Wallabies, so look for more direct running in midfield from Mortlock and Gerrard coming in from the blindside - a favourite Brumbies play. Gerrard has a big boot and will be used a lot to clear the ball and counter the expected pressure on Larkham. Attack hasn't been the hallmark of Tri Nations matches this year so I'm not expecting many tries from either team, and Hougaard is a more accurate kicker at goal and in general play than any player in the Wallabies. Paul Honiss will allow the teams to scrum so the Wallabies will be under the spotlight and will need to be very physical and confrontational at the breakdown against the Springbok loose forwards.
DF6
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Excellent comments Sam, and i (being a kiwi) was also pleased with Henrys comments about Australia being the better side, he was right. Jerome, im not sure the wallabies have peaked, and im not sure they will peak for another 12-16 months, what I do wonder is how will SA be able to pick themselves up again, after an extremely physical super 14 where all SA teams played exceptionally well, how will they keep up this momentum and carry it through to the world cup, will they get much needed rest? or will it prove to be the downfall of their great form? A real positive for them is that they play a pre world cup match where im not sure NZ or AUS do. The All Blacks are notoriously slow starters to the test season, hopefully Henry has timed their run to the WC perfectly Anyway, prediction for tomorrow night Wallabies to win 25-16 Anyone else?
Jerome
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i cannot see the current SA side overcoming the wallabies on home soil. Their defence is watertight at the moment, and their backline is starting to fire. I would even say their backline is clicking better then NZ's at the moment. out of the current wallabies backline, i would rather have giteau, larkham, mortlock in the ABS. this is based on current form, carter is below average, and our midfield comibination is not yet set in stone. The SA side relies to much on combinations to make them fire, i.e sharks front row, bulls second row..etc. their backline has talent, but lacks cohesion. I cant see them scoring a lot of points through midfield bursts, and hougaard is a kick first no10. They will probably keep the scoreline closer then we all think, mostly due to their forwards getting territory, and houugards boot kicking penalties. When the ABS play at home, i cant see them losing both games. This current team has adapted well, and learnt from losses. Our record at home for the last three years has been incredible. The difference this time is, these ABS are not in the best form. They are not firing on all four cylinders, and the aussies are. All excuses aside, the wallabies hung tough. they played aggresively, capatilised on errors, and converted possesion into points. I would not be all that surprised if they manage a win in NZ. Remember, the name of the game was reconditioning for these ABs. us kiwis are expecting a lot of them to win every game leading into the WC. the whole point of the exercise was to be peaking later this year, when mental and physical fatigue kicks in. Right now, they are not match hardened, they lack the killer instincts they would normally have, and the 6-7 weeks of super 14 would have helped hone them. I read an article at the start of the year where a kiwi journo warned us of the dangers of expecting to much from the ABS to quickly. it would be nice to see ABs win both games by a comfortable margin, but im not going to hold my breath with the aussies. They know our game quite well, and raise their performance against the ABs As for the WC, SA and NZ mite be well rested, but how bout the wallabies? why has no one mentioned that they mite be peaking to early???
Sam Taulelei
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Forget the spin from Graham Henry about the loss being a good thing, or any comments about travel fatigue, yellow carding of Carl Hayman, drop in form of Dan Carter etc. If the All Blacks had won on Saturday, these things wouldn't have rated a mention. A loss is a loss, it was refreshing to hear Graham Henry concede that they were beaten by the better team and that they had no excuses, and that was the honest truth. What will be important for both Australia and New Zealand is how they each respond after this result. If the Wallabies lose to the Springboks on Saturday then all that goodwill and good work will be undone and there will still be doubts expressed about their ability. If they win that will be the confidence boost they'll need to confront the All Blacks at home and potentially win back the Tri Nations and Bledisloe, as well as psychologically neuter the All Blacks ahead of the World Cup. If the All Blacks win their two matches at home, then nobody will have learnt anything new about any of the Tri Nations teams ahead of the World Cup. As for psychological weaknesses in the All Blacks makeup, a loss this far out from the World Cup doesn't automatically paint them as chokers again. It's become a favourite phrase for the media and kiwi bashers to roll out whenever the All Blacks lose, but what is conveniently overlooked is how this team under Graham Henry has reacted and learnt from their losses, and that is the mark of a champion team. I'm fascinated at the prospect of this Saturday's game, the Springboks won't be lacking in motivation and will be out to prove to everyone that they are deserving of wearing the green jersey. Can the Wallabies get up for another physical encounter and honour Gregan and Larkham in their last home game with a win? The clock is ticking......................................
jameswm
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Geez Bruce - the ABs imploding a 3rd successive time against us in the WC? We beat them fair and square in 1991. Two moments of Campo magic broke the shackles. In 2003, I don't think they imploded either. The Aussies knew what to expect and when the previously successful tactics were stymied during the match, the ABs didn't know what to do. The Aussies tackled and played with incredible determination, plus the smarts. The Aussies stepped up for the big moment and the ABs didn't. Whether or not you have done better leading into a WC, you have to step up at it. Saturday showed that again, that if the ABs play, in the WC, at the same level they did last year, it probably won't be enough.
Jerome
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The wallabies certainly did lift in the final 15 minutes. Just as Hayman was sent of, the tide of momentum turned. The score was locked at 15-13, and NZ won lineout ball, which mauger then drove into the aussie 22, out on the full. The result was a lineout win from Aus deep into ABS half, and mortlock ran straight through mcallister and crew to throw a pass to staniforth, While i have been overly critical of maugers performance, someone did point out several others kicked the ball on the full to....carter,huxley, larkham, so'ialo..... Rugby can be a game of inches, and a few decisive tackles, and we would be talking about an unstoppable AB machine, and another loss to the wallabies. cooper running through Mcaw, jack and gear from 6m out was impressive, as was mortlock brushing mcallister aside...then running nearly 30 metres before an behind the head pass. Fatigue no doubt kicked in resulting in these missed tackles...if they had stuck..like i said... A game of inches. But well done wallabies for grabbing their chances.
Terry Kidd
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KF ... I agree with most of what you said. I very rarely bet on anything but I did place a little wager on the Wallabies simply on the strength of the ABs hard game against the Boks and the travel. I placed the bet before I knew that McDonald was out, so that I believe made little difference. I also factored in possible sin bins, although I must admit that I half thought that both McCaw and Elsom might get a mid-game rest at some stage. Bottom line .... missing Hayman and ultimately Collins did undoubtably have an impact but I believe that the game had already turned at that stage .... twas why slowing the ball happened 3 times in quick succession .... so I discount that. The big test is Bledisloe 2 .... I am unsure of the timing ... will the Wallabies be playing back to back, Boks then ABs? If the Wallabies are backing, and playing away .... if we win that, then I will begin to believe.
robert stephen
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Graham Henry can put whatever spin on Sat night's loss he likes. Bottom line is that on the whole, apart from a quality rugby side kiwis don't really have much going for them. The pressure of the whole nation is obviously too much for them to bear, come world cup time. I will leave you with the following statistic, Is History repeating itself? In the past two World Cup years, the All Blacks lost just once before the tournament, both times to the eventual champion In 1999, the Wallabies won 28-7 in Sydney before taking their second World Cup and England out-muscled New Zealand 15-13 in Wellington four years later before becoming the first European team to win the Webb Ellis Cup
barry longsugar
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Sheek et al - it seems to me that chauvinism has once again swamped common sense. Had it not been for the absurdies of the first-half scrums where Gregan played the ref (and the stupid rules) to effectively stop possession from being decided, the ABs' scrum would have murdered ours, and did on a couple of occasions. I think we'll find that, with a different ref, and one that'll be affected by the Kiwis' home advantage, the return game on the 21st of this month will see the ABs win comfortably. They'll be rested and playing under familiar skies, they'll sort out their midfield problems (dropping Mageur would be a good start), and somebody will have spoken to Dan Carter and told him to snap out of it. The ABs will take this win, and the one over the Boks' B team on the 14th, into the RWC where they have nothing but soft games until meeting either Ireland or Argentina (I guess). The Wallabies, on the other hand, may have trouble beating Wales because a full-strength Welsh scrum in Cardiff will dominate a full-strength Wallaby scrum in Cardiff. And besides the Welsh and the ABs, England, the Pumas, the French, Ireland and the Boks (at least in the first half) all have better scrums than do we. So how on earth can people think we're solid contenders for the cup? We beat the Kiwis on Saturday because you and I have never seen an AB team that was that flat. Right, mate?
KF
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Hi I would not read too much into this win - if there was a time to beat all blacks, this was it - they had a hard game against SA, they arrived in Melbourne on Monday afternoon, Leon McDonald got injured on Thursday, so all pre-game ingredients for All Balcks were there. Also, yellow card to Hayman was effectivelly a yellow card to Collins, as he had to leave the game as soon as the first scrum was required. The win itself is psychologically important for Australia before the RWC and that is as much as it can be said. For the real thing, let's wait for the game in Auckland and see... Interstingly enough - in the SA vs NZ game, it was All Balcks that lifted in the last 20 minutes. In this game it was quite different. It is worth mentining that not only Aron Mauger kicked the ball on full - it happened quite often to both sides and I would assign it to the shape of the ground, rather than pressure. Kind regards KF
sheek
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Mitch, We've only played the ABs twice twice out of 5 at a World Cup, for 2 wins. Good, but hardly anything to get excited about. Should we be proud of a less than impressive day in-day out, win-loss record against other top nations? If we only produce our best at WC time, what does that say about our performances at other times? Terry Kidd, Agreed, if we meet the ABs in the semis, it will be worth watching. But I won't hold my breath on the ABs imploding a 3rd successive time against us. And I've asked the question before - if we OVER-perform at the WC, what kind of message does that send to our administrators? Especially when we all know, there are structural problems with Australian rugby.
Terry Kidd
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One thing I do know .... if a Wallabies v All Blacks semi comes to pass at the RWC it will be an absolute cracker and not something to miss.
Greg
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Or due for a loss to play devil's advocate! But the Wallabies always do seem to take a step up come world cup time, let's hope this result is a step in the right direction and gives them some confidence come Sep/Oct.
Mitch
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I'd likely to quietly mention that the Wallabies have never lost to the ABs in a RWC game. Interesting... Good odds come 13th October, no?