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Living up to the name Gary Ablett Jr was never going to be easy, but by this time next week one of the AFL’s most legendary figures might be enviously admiring his son’s trophy collection.
Who do you think will win the Brownlow Medal tonight?
Ablett Sr’s record of achievements is long – Geelong’s all-time leading goalkicker, three Coleman Medals, a Norm Smith Medal, membership of the AFL’s Hall of Fame and the Cats’ Team of the Century.
But there are two glaring omissions, the most prized individual and team honours – a Brownlow Medal and a premiership medal – and 23-year-old Ablett Jr is favoured to this week win both.
Ablett is the hottest of favourites heading into Monday night’s Brownlow count, ahead of a list of stars including the Kangaroos’ Brent Harvey, Port Adelaide’s Chad Cornes, Brisbane’s Jonathan Brown and Cats team-mate Jimmy Bartel.
The Cats are also favourites to win the grand final against Port Adelaide at the MCG on Saturday.
“Chad Cornes has got a pretty good chance, but I think Gary Ablett’s got it in the bag already, hasn’t he? It’s halfway down the Geelong highway,” said Port captain Warren Tredrea.
“But who knows? It’s not something I can ever pick.
“Generally you pick one of your classy midfielders – (Jimmy) Bartel, Ablett – I think the only thing that could hold those two guys back is they’re in the same team, so there’s only a certain amount of votes can be handed out every week for them.”
Ablett has the two key attributes recent history has shown are needed to win the Brownlow. Firstly, he is a midfielder, something he has in common with all 12 winners in the past decade (including a three-way tie in 2003).
Secondly, he is part of a successful team.
Eleven of those 12 medallists were in teams that made finals in their winning year, the exception being Hawthorn’s Shane Crawford, whose club came ninth in 1999.
Seven of the past 12 winners played in grand finals, with two of those, Brisbane’s Jason Akermanis in 2001 and team-mate Simon Black in 2002, winning premierships.
Ablett is also sure to have attracted the umpires’ attention, given his ability to win the hard ball, as well as to run free, use the ball creatively and kick goals.
He booted 26 goals in 22 home and away matches.
He had eight matches in which he gathered 30-plus disposals and another seven games in which he had at least 25 disposals.
Ablett has amassed only 14 career Brownlow votes before this year, but played mainly as a forward previously, before improved fitness allowed him to spend most of his time in the midfield this season.
That move helped him earn his first All Australian selection last Monday night.
Counting against Ablett could be the high number of Cats likely to be competing with him for votes, particularly fellow midfielders Bartel and Joel Corey.
Harvey and Cornes are tipped to provide the biggest threats to Ablett’s chances.
Harvey, 29, has had a career-best season, combining regular high-possession games with 31 goals in the home and away season.
The versatile Cornes, who came third in the 2004 Brownlow count, has also been a high disposal-winner, combining that with an ability to play key positions at either end of the ground.
Brown can not be discounted, after ranking equal 10th in last year’s count despite playing only the first 10 games of the season before injury ended his year.
This year, he played all 22 matches, topping the AFL goal-kicking tally and having some outstanding individual games.
Meanwhile, Port will follow the trend of non-Victorian teams playing in the grand final and not send any players to tomorrow night’s count in Melbourne.
“We’re going over on Thursday, so to go over there Monday, come back Tuesday, head back Thursday is a little bit silly,” Tredrea said.
“I dare say the AFL understands where we’re heading because the most important thing for our club is we want to win premierships.
“Successful interstate teams haven’t gone to it and it’s worked for us in the past … when was the last time the winner was actually there?”
The leading contenders for the Brownlow Medal:
Gary Ablett (Geelong) Odds: $2.10 (TAB Sportsbet) $2.35 (Centrebet)
Ablett has always had an ability to do marvellous things on a football field, but it is his improved fitness this season, which led to a move into the midfield, that has carried him to elite status. His Cats’ teammates always look to give him the ball because he uses it so well. But he is also capable of wresting it from the middle of packs himself and has an almost unmatched knack of breaking free of opponents’ attempted tackles to find space. His capacity to regularly kick goals, often from difficult positions and at clutch times in matches, further adds to his potency. The fact that he has had 25-plus disposals in 15 games during the home and away season should serve him well. The main factor counting against him might be he has so many talented teammates competing with him for votes.
Brent Harvey (Kangaroos) Odds: $4.00 (TAB Sportsbet), $3.50 (Centrebet)
Seemingly the main threat to Ablett’s chances, the 29-year-old Kangaroos speedster has lifted his game to a new level this season, with his strong form a prime reason his team made it into the AFL’s final four. Harvey’s ability to use his speed and agility to find space and carry the ball forward will ensure he has caught the eye of the umpires. He had 13 matches in which he garnered 25-plus disposals, and on several occasions combined those touches with three or four goals, making him hard to go past for votes. Helping his cause will be the fact that he has been a standout among the Kangaroos, meaning he is likely to hog a large share of the votes in their winning games.
Chad Cornes (Port Adelaide) Odds: $7.00 (TAB Sportsbet), $7.00 (Centrebet)
Cornes is something of a wildcard in the pack, as an unconventional style of midfielder. His size and strength allows him to complement strong work in the packs by taking plenty of marks around the ground. He has amassed 25 disposals or more in 14 matches during the home and away season, plus another game in which he booted six goals. His spirited attack on the ball and opposition players makes him difficult to miss. He is a proven vote-winner, having come third in the 2004 count, Port’s premiership year. If he does win the medal, it will continue a recent pattern of winners not being at the count in Melbourne to accept it. The Power are holding their own function at Alberton so as not to disrupt their preparation for Saturday’s grand final.
Jonathan Brown (Brisbane) Odds: $9.00 (TAB Sportsbet), $11.00 (Centrebet)
For Brown to win, he would have to break the extremely strong hold midfielders have had on the award over the past decade. But, the powerful forward has shown he has the ability to draw votes from the umpires. Last year, he led the count after 10 rounds, and even though he did not play after that because of injury still finished in the top 10. This season he played all 22 games and in several of them he was clearly the dominant player on ground. He led the competition in goals, including a 10-goal haul, a seven-goal haul and three six-goal hauls. Brown also had 14 matches where he picked up 15-plus disposals, very good numbers for a power forward, as well as taking almost as many marks as any player in the AFL.
Jimmy Bartel (Geelong) Odds: $10.00 (TAB Sportsbet), $11.00 (Centrebet)
Along with Ablett, Bartel’s form has been one of the main drivers behind the Cats’ midfield dominance this season. The courageous little man has an impressive ability to throw himself into packs and come out with the ball. Despite missing the last two games of the home and away season through injury, he racked up nine 30-plus disposal game and four others of 25 touches or more. Consistent and hard-working, Bartel has also been one of the AFL’s most prolific tacklers this season, as well as possessing good foot skills and a strong mark for his size. Like Ablett, a major hurdle to his chances is likely to be sharing votes with his teammates.
Sam Mitchell (Hawthorn) Odds: $13.00 (TAB Sportsbet), $9.00 (Centrebet)
Mitchell has been the midfield extractor who has acted as the engine to power the Hawks’ running machine this season. His average of 14 handballs per match over the home and away season shows the regularity with which he has dished the ball out from the packs. He has had eight 30-plus disposal games. Mitchell’s ability to poll well was shown last season when he came equal 10th in the count, clearly his side’s highest in a year in which they won nine games. With 13 victories in the home and away season this year, it should lift his prospects. He could be fighting the likes of Luke Hodge, Lance Franklin and former winner Shane Crawford for votes though.
Kane Cornes (Port Adelaide) Odds: $14.00 (TAB Sportsbet), $15.00 (Centrebet)
Breaking the trend of most taggers, the dogged Power little man is a constant disposal-winner himself, picking up more touches than any other player in the competition this season. The ability to do so while shutting down some of the AFL’s best players makes him a strong candidate to attract votes. Astonishingly consistent, Cornes has amassed 30-plus disposals nine times during the home and away season and has only twice had fewer than 20 disposals in a match. The question might be whether his steady approach he catches the eye of umpires as readily as some of his quicker, more skilful teammates such as Shaun and Peter Burgoyne, or his more attack-oriented brother Chad.
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