Tonga can beat England - but will they?

Ah yes. So we saw what indeed happened. No easy,illegal turnovers and the rest was history. Most of the 'ripped ball' came when the players were off their feet - illegal play. And the pity is they did not need to do it!

Nope, hard to believe but after viewing the highlights of that game it clearly showed Tonga outgunned the boks in the ruck particularly as the game wore on with Nili Latu forcing 2 penalties from the boks not releasing and i think Maka ripped the ball cleanly in the tackle on 2 occasions also. The rest, believe it or not, came from Tongan fowards outgunning in the collision area....its still hard to believe but you have to see it for yourself. To be fair to the boks remember that most of their starters had not played rugby in over 2 months. In the professional era thats a long time to be stagnant for a foward pack, especially in a RWC game against a team on a roll.

Amazing.No one has yet mentioned that there will be a different ref this game.Spiro may have thought the young ref excellent in the game against the Boks but that's OK if diving in from the sides etc was in the rules.The amount of tiurnover ball the Boks conceded was incredible.Poor play? No way. These were players who never conceded that much turnover ball in the S14 and Tri Nations when they played.So what was different? That the Bok team played poorly and did not knit as a team is indisputable.But all that turnover ball? Get real lads. England by plenty if the game is reffed correctly.

[...] Leading into the tournament, the England v Tonga match would not have posed too many concerns for the current world champions. Their lack of form coupled with Tonga’s enterprising and courageous play make this one of the matches of the tournament. Read the match preview. [...]

Great article. As a avid rugby fan theres always a soft spot for the underdogs. Tongas gameplan will be to starve the English of possession by keeping the ball tight. I believe England will look to do the same by playing in Tongas half and chipping away till a penalty comes. I dont believe fitness will be as much of a factor as many believe, 11 of Tongas players are seasoned vets of the northern hemisphere circuit. For me it will be down to which team is the most disciplined as Holas boot on form will be just as likely to capitalize as Wilkos on the day. The first team to lose a player to the bin will be the team going home.

Excellent article Garth. As a perennial supporter of the underdog, I can say that your words speak of your love of the game. I'm sure many share your sentiments. Unfortunately, it's an England victory all the way. Yes, the Pacific Islands are becoming more competitive, and, maybe a few years down the line they will be a force, but I feel that the fatigue factor is massive here. The domestic game has made the Northen Hempshere sides incredibly resilient. What the lack in skill (in comparison with our Southern Hemisphere counterparts) they more than make up for in sheer force of will. England should win, and win well. Then we face a Quarter Final against Australia, and probable defeat. A replication of their performance against Wales will see a handsome victory for the Aussies, who - in my eyes at least - are the only team capable of giving the All Blacks a game.

I'm pretty confident England will find their way past Tonga. This is the first time that England have put forward an attacking back-line for two games in a row. Wilkinson has still played under 10 games since 2003 and is getting better; his constant sideways movement against the French in the warm-ups has been eliminated and hopefully the platform the pack will provide against Tonga will be enough to give him another 80 mins quality game time. Outside him Barkley provided balance against Samoa but I think looks like he's waiting for Wilko to give him direction. Wilko and Barkley have only played two games together in this combination so again, another 80 mins will be good. Gomersall was England's best player on Saturday. Tait is an exciting runner, as is Sackey. Cueto should be dependable and Lewsey is defensively sound. If the Tongan game goes well and the relatively new combinations pass the test, I think England will be able to give Australia a good game. Having said that, I worry what Mortlock will do to the midfield!

hope the poms get smashed. they are a joke to world rugby, and make a mockery of their status as world cup holders. if the poms lose, I think they have to go through qualifying rounds for 2011. if the pacific nations cup takesoff over the next few years, fiji, samoa, and tonga will definitely start beating to so called tier on nations. I rate aus/nz/sa way above the current home nations, except the unpredictable french. the pacific nations (with training + game time + resources + full compliment of players instead of stupid northern hemisphere clubs holding back playere) along with the current argentina side could easily push the home nations further down the rankings.

In the perfect rugby dream Argentina topple Ireland, setting up the tantilising QF of France versus NZ. But the match of the 07 cup would be Tonga beating England. I just can't see it happening. England can't be bundled out in the pools, or can they?

Garth In fairness your article highlights the very same reasons why SA should have beaten Tonga more comfortably on the weekend. Granted England will not be caught out by surprise and will afford them the respect they have earned at this tournament, but the romantic side of me dearly wishes to see Tonga rewarded for their fine performances with a quarterfinal spot. Only the most one-eyed English supporter would argue that England deserves to qualify for the final eight. If Tonga fails to rise to the occasion, it won't be for lack of effort, heart and skill, it will be the impact of playing four games in 17 days compared to England's four games in 20 days that are nicely spaced 6-7 days apart. The contest at the breakdown will be the key for Tonga, their lineout performed well against SA even when Matfield was substituted on and their scrum held up better than expected but their setpieces will come under immense pressure from England. It won't be enough for England to just win, they'll also need to show that they have a game that can test better organised defences and stronger forward packs if they make it through to the quarterfinals. It's fantastic that for this last week of pool games much of the attention is focused on two games that feature traditional minnows, Argentina and Tonga, who can end the campaigns of their more favoured opponents. Nobody could have predicted this outcome.

Nice article Garth. I'm not sure I share your doubts over Tonga's ability to rise again to down England. The Tongans are playing great rugby, whereas England are playing poorly. My money's on the form going into the match...though the Wilkinson factor may prove me wrong.