Congratulations to the Springboks on their World Cup success.
However the clarity of their win does not mean that no questions are raised by rugby events from recent days:
* Did South Africa know England’s lineout calls for the World Cup final?
It is not disputed that Matfield is the best defensive lineout exponent in world rugby. However for the first few English lineouts of the World Cup final it was almost as if South Africa were throwing the ball in, so smoothly did they steal possession.
With these two teams having already played each other 3 times in recent months, and with coaches White and Jones being noted aficionados of video analysis, is it unreasonable to speculate that the South Africans took to the field knowing the English lineout calls?
* Do any players in the All Blacks and Wallabies believe that the South Africans are a better team than them?
Although South Africa are World Champions, it should not be forgotten that they came last in the Trinations in both 2006 and 2007.
* Could it be said that South Africa have done a Steven Bradbury, the Australian who won a gold medal at the Winter Olympics of 2002 because the 3 other skaters in the final, all ahead of him, fell over within sight of the finish line?
There is no taking away from South Africa that, as the old cliche goes, they beat all the opposition put in front of them, and that they could not do any more than that. But the fact remains that they won the World Cup without having to play New Zealand, Australia or France, the teams ranked 1, 2 and 3 respectively going into the tournament.
On this point, an interesting historical note is that New Zealand in 1987 is the only previous occasion on which a World Cup winning team has had to defeat only one major nation in the process (New Zealand-France in 1987, South Africa-England in 2007). Isn’t this interesting in view of New Zealand’s well documented World Cup problems since then?
* Conventional wisdom is that forwards may play on until well into their 30s, but that backs are well past their prime by this age. Is the latter true?
Consider that Mike Catt, age 36, was England’s best back in the semi-final and final; that Jason Robinson, age 33, was England’s most dangerous back throughout the tournament; that Percy Montgomery, age 33, had a grand tournament and was one of South Africa’s best in the final; that Australia based its World Cup campaign on its ageing 9-10 combination, and that Larkham’s injury is considered to be one of the key factors behind Australia’s early exit; that Augustin Pichot, age 33, was one of the dominant players of the tournament; that a major reason for New Zealand’s meltdown against France is that it ended the match with young, inexperienced backs in the decision-making positions of 9, 10 and 12; and so on.
* Players who have been in two World Cup winning XVs: John Eales, Tim Horan and … Os du Randt.
Yes, it is remarkable longevity for big Os to have spanned from 1995 to 2007, but will history regard him as being in the same exalted class as the two Australian greats?
* John Eales 1999, Martin Johnson 2003, Victor Matfield 2007. There is an obvious pattern here: the team with the world’s foremost second-rower wins the World Cup. So if one wants to speculate on who will win the 2011 World Cup, one should ponder this question:
Who will be the world’s foremost second-rower in 2011?
This question is not as wide-ranging as it at first seems, because two restrictions may be noted:
1. Just as Eales, Johnson and Matfield had all played in preceding World Cups, so it may be anticipated that the dominant second-rower in 2011 will have played in the 2007 World Cup.
2. As Spiro Zavos has pointed out, there is a stark reality that undermines all the triumphalism from English journalists about northern hemisphere rugby: 5 out of 6 World Cups have been won by South Africa, New Zealand and Australia.
So noting that Matfield and Chris Jack are heading off to European contracts, here is the question that gives the best indicator for 2011: which of Dan Vickerman, Ali Williams or Bakkies Botha will be the best second-rower by then?
(Incidentally, it follows from this that the ARU should do all that it can to keep Vickerman on Australian shores until 2011.)
* The wisdom of coaches, part 1: Graham Henry has maintained all year that South Africa was New Zealand’s biggest threat at the 2007 World Cup.
Why then did Henry remove his best 22 players from the 2007 Super 14? This more than anything else enabled the Bulls and Sharks to be successful, which in turn is what kick-started South Africa’s World Cup campaign. As the old saying goes, never give a sucker an even break. Graham Henry has only himself to blame.
* The wisdom of coaches, part 2: Jake White has maintained all year that defence wins World Cups, not attack.
He should know: he was Kitch Christie’s video analyst in 1995, and this time he was South Africa’s head coach. But is White really correct, or did he fashion the 2007 World Cup final so that it was won by defence? After all, it was not as if South Africa were playing a team that posed a lot of try-scoring threats.
And while one can admire the Springboks for not conceding a single try in two World Cup finals, what should one make of them for themselves not scoring a single try in those two matches? There have only been two World Cup finals that have been tryless, and South Africa have been the common denominator – and winner – in both. Are the Springboks good for world rugby? Is it fair that England is portrayed as the most boring team in world rugby?
* The wisdom of coaches, part 3: Jake White hired Eddie Jones as a “technical advisor” for the Springboks’ 2007 World Cup campaign.
The wisdom of administrators, part 1: John O’Neill has acknowledged of Jones, “He may well have found his niche as a sort of technical director, he really put a bit of polish on them.”
Was this to be foreseen?
This writer has maintained for many years that Eddie Jones is an assistant coach rather than a head coach. His work ethic is second to none, as is his technical knowledge of the game. There may be some disputing his tactical acumen in his continued adherence to the multi-phase, highly organized approach of the Brumbies, even as other paradigms overtook it in success. But in general Jones is still regarded as having a superb grasp of tactics.
Really the common factor in all of Jones’s coaching travails has been man-management problems: the Wallaby assistant coaches who walked out on him, the trenchant berating of young Queensland players for mistakes that any reasonable coach would accept as inevitable with highly inexperienced players, the loss of morale of the Wallabies under Jones, and so on. All these problems arose from Jones being a head coach. Remove him from man-management roles, and he surely remains one of the world’s premier rugby coaches – just ask Jake White!
* The wisdom of administrators, part 2: Syd Millar, retiring head of the IRB, openly tells the world’s press “We need to make rugby more exciting … We need to free the game up a bit, make it easier to play, easier to referee, easier to understand and we have to produce more options for the players.”
Yes, to all except the coterie of Stephen Jones, Millar is stating the obvious. But hasn’t a sport reached a truly dire state when its head, the person who should be its most passionate advocate, openly admits that the sport is a dead duck as a spectacle? Self-honesty is admirable, but how bad a look is this for the game of rugby?
* The wisdom of administrators, part 3: The IRB admits that referee Wayne Barnes and touch-judge Tony Spreadbury made some crucial errors in the France-New Zealand quarter-final, and because of this they decide that the other touch-judge that day, Jonathan Kaplan, would not be appointed to officiate on the final weekend of the tournament, no matter that Kaplan’s refereeing of the England-France semi-final was superb.
What sort of rough justice is this, that Kaplan pays the price for the incompetence of his fellow officials?
* The wisdom of administrators, part 4: Will New Zealand host the 2011 World Cup?
Unbelievably, they are once again courting disaster, this time on the following two fronts: (1) Where almost everyone else in the world has decided that 20 teams remains the way to go for a World Cup, New Zealand is refusing to commit to this number, and clearly would prefer the tournament to have only 16 teams. (2) The newly elected mayor of Auckland has stated he will not back down from his election promise of not providing any council funds for the upgrade of Eden Park to the promised capacity of 60,000. From where will the necessary $300m come? What happens if it doesn’t arrive?
* The wisdom of administrators, part 5: The NZRU has announced an “independent review” to “come up with some answers over the All Blacks’ worst World Cup performance”. But at the same time NZRU chairman Jock Hobbs said that the findings of this review “would not be a factor in the appointment of the new coach” (quotes taken from The Press, Christchurch, 20 October 2007).
How bizarre is this? How believable is it? Are these statements a reflection of the old adage that the performance of a sporting team reflects the competence of the administration behind it?
Then again, how to explain the Springboks if this is the case?
* The wisdom of administrators, part 6: The NZRU will not decide on the next coach of the All Blacks until Christmas, whereas the ARU wants to appoint the next Wallaby coach by the end of November, and the Welsh also plan to make a new appointment soon.
It would seem that the NZRU’s slowness is a deliberate ploy to deter leading Kiwi coaches such as Robbie Deans and Warren Gatland from accepting offers from Australia and Wales respectively. But will this backfire on the NZRU?
Are this and some of the other points above examples of what Brendan Gallagher has termed the “pure, unattractive arrogance” of those in New Zealand rugby, a belief that all in rugby revolves around them?
* Polls reveal that 66% of New Zealand rugby fans want Graham Henry retained as coach of the All Blacks.
This is hard to understand given what happened to John Hart (1999) and John Mitchell (2003) before Henry: they had inferior personnel, they made it further in the tournament (to the semifinals), and yet they were summarily dismissed for their failure. Has New Zealand matured in its reaction to World Cup defeat? Could Graham Henry really do a Clive Woodward, i.e., learn from the mistakes of a first World Cup campaign to emerge triumphant at a second?
And if Graham Henry is reappointed (or his assistant Steve Hansen, with whom Deans is estranged), will that be to the advantage of Australian rugby by pushing Robbie Deans in the direction of the Wallaby coaching position?
* Domestic rugby, part 1: Auckland won the New Zealand provincial championship, becoming the first team since the Auckland team of 1990 to go through a season undefeated and win the Ranfurly Shield.
An adage in New Zealand rugby is “When Auckland is strong, the All Blacks are strong.” Is this no longer true? Or is it true but it just didn’t show at the World Cup? Or did coach Henry simply not select enough Auckland players?
* Domestic rugby, part 2: ARC champions the Rays were given little chance of even making the final four before the tournament started.
Why is this given that they fielded a virtual NSW-strength backline, containing Brett Sheehan, Sam Norton-Knight, Sam Harris, Ben Jacobs and Peter Hewat?
And on this point it should be mentioned that backline of the ARC minor premiers, the Rams, included Josh Holmes, Kurtley Beale, Chris Siale and Lachlan Turner, four of the most exciting young backs in Australian rugby.
* The ARC was dominated by teams with the best backs (see point immediately above) whereas World Cup success was largely determined by forwards (think England, Argentina and South Africa).
Could this have anything to do with the ARC being played with the so-called Experimental Law Variations, whereas the World Cup was played under the old dispensation? Or does this just reflect the different mentality towards rugby in Australia?
* Could there be any more powerful argument for adopting the Experimental Law Variations than England’s success at this World Cup?
* If New Zealand had won the World Cup, then wouldn’t the hated “rotation” and “reconditioning” strategies have become permanent features of New Zealand’s rugby, and therefore probably everyone else’s?
Paradoxically, is New Zealand’s failure at the World Cup was no bad thing for New Zealand and world rugby?
* Aren’t calls for the diminution of the value of drop goals a case of missing the elephant in the room?
Consider the following facts: while Jonny Wilkinson’s drop goal against France was much celebrated, the match was already won at this point and he had missed several attempts prior to this. Similarly, he missed his only two drop-goal attempts during the final. Doesn’t this tell that drop goals are actually very difficult to execute successfully, and therefore that they are well worth their 3 points? Further, they are relatively rare, and they are not decided by the whim of the referee.
Now consider the situation with penalty goals. In the World Cup final, the South Africans kicked 5 from 6 attempts, with only Steyn missing an angled, long-range attempt. Wilkinson kicked 2 out of 2 for England. This tells that penalty goals are relatively easy to kick and that they are common.
Even worse, they are at the whim of the referee and the laws. The penalty goal by Steyn that put the final out of England’s reach at 15-6 was for an obstruction that wasn’t: Mark Cueto did not run behind any team-mate. On the other hand, England’s second penalty was for South Africa killing the ball, and thereby denying England a deserved try after the most exciting run of the final by Matthew Tait. In other words, 3 points in both cases, one for a trivial offence that wasn’t, the other for a grave offence that probably denied England 7 points.
So aren’t penalty goals rather than drop goals the real blight on rugby? What to do about this? Should rugby league be looked, where penalties rarely decide a contest, or does rugby need to find its own solutions?
* Stirling Mortlock will miss the entire 2008 Super 14 season as he recuperates from the third shoulder reconstruction of his career.
Presumably this means the Wallabies will require a new captain, yes? Is this a good or a bad thing? Should it be a caretaker appointment or should it a permanent one, with a view to the future? Either way, who should it be? Are Giteau, Smith and Waugh the only contenders? Could Waugh seriously be considered given that he cannot command a starting spot?
* Should I keep writing questions like this in the future?
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And given that I live in Japan and went to a Japanese club game tonight, I love how people think Japan should've been given the WC on the basis that it's Asia and some nonsense about the global game. I'm not saying it should've gone to NZ. I don't particularly care where the World Cup is played.
ohtani's jacket
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I don't understand where the media are coming from on this Rugby World Cup 2011 spin. NZ tendered on a 20-team rugby World Cup. They want a 20-team World Cup. Syd Millar confirmed this. It's the IRB and more importantly RWC Ltd. who want 16 teams. Rugby New Zealand 2011 Ltd said they have plans in place in case it's a 16 team tournament and the press ran with the angle that the NZRU wants 16 teams.
Ben from Pretoria
Guest
I love these denials masquarading as debates. Os du Randt is an absolute legend, NZRU is a farce who rubberstamped a disastrous campaign and are running for the hills. Imagine world rugby WITHOUT the Springboks. That will take rugby in Aus and NZ back to the corporate stoneage with no Tri Nations and S14. The All Blacks and Wallabies were given a task and failed. Their supporters have only themselves to blame South Africans and many others DO NOT CARE HOW OUR TEAMS WIN.Only that they do. Are you seriously comparing the Mazda ARC with The Rugby World Cup? Only a moron can for a moment think the pressures are comparable. LOL! There is only ONE reason South Africa won the World Cup is that they were the only team that won 7 games in a row.
Jaffa
Guest
Re RWC 2011 hosts NZRU Much as I like New Zealanders, they have just got to stop living the delusion that the rules and conventions of international commerce don't apply to the NZRU. Most emphatically, they MUST recognise that when you sign up as host/co-host of rugby's biggest international tourament and the showpiece of our game, the other parties to the agreement will assume as a matter of course the following: 1. You have read the contract, and accept ALL the terms and conditions. 2. You recognise that the time to negotiate /tweak/alter the terms is BEFORE you sign up, not after. 3. You have done due diligence on what you are agreeing to provide, and that ALL domestic entities whose cooperation/participation is essential to the integrity of your bid have agreed to support the committments you are making on their behalf. After having a huge hissy fit and holding their breath till they turned blue, they succeeded in winning the rights for RWC 2011 ahead of Japan,who already have all the necessary infrastructure and personnel experience in place as a legacy of having previously hosted the FIFA World Cup. What a lost opportunity to showcase rugby to a huge new audience. You would think that, after the shambles of their on-off, "yes - no, maybe we can , lets scratch out a few modifications on the back of an envelope" planning debacle that preceded their humiliating ejection from the position of co-host 2003 tournament, the worthies of the NZRU would have learnt how to behave with professional integrity and commercial maturity and ACTUALLY HONOUR THEIR COMMITTMENTS ( emphasis intended). Sadly....no. They know nothing and have learnt nothing - now, they want to rewrite the tournament participation agreement and limit the teams to 16, despite having agreed to host a 20 team tournament. Good grief! Are they serious? NZ Rugby has a magnificent history, but their limitations in terms of grounds, accomodation, and transport infrastructure means that they are manifestly ill -prepared to credibly host this tournament, much less return a profit to the IRB or themselves. Can someone please advise them that they should not constantly renege on business undertakings and continually plead for exceptions to be made in their case. They are fast becoming an embarrassment with their antics and back flips. It's not too late to release them from a deal they obviously can't honour.
Pfitzy
Guest
Only a couple of things to comment on: ON VICKERMAN... If he is still on Australian shores by 2011, I doubt whether he'll be injury free given his history. He's a totally committed player but his body is paying the price. We need Horwill to wake up to himself and forget this nonsense of playing McMeniman at blindside: our short propping stocks are matched by our short second row stocks. The other thing clearly missed in the "world's foremost second rower" is that in two cases - Eales and Johnson - they were also the world's foremost captain. Matfield is an acknowledged leader as well. When your leaders are in charge of destroying the opposition's first-phase ball then its an added bonus - talismanic you might say. Like the general of a medieval army engaging the opposition's crack troops in combat directly and emerging triumphant. ON EDDIE JONES As mentioned, Eddie has a great rugby brain and the man-management skills of George Bush running a BBQ during Ramadan. There can be little doubt he improved the Boks' chances. HOWEVER, probably a more salient point is the involvement of two Australians in the successful South African S14 franchises - Todd Louden at the Bulls and David Campese at the Sharks (the two teams who contested the final). At this level, giving many of the Springbok players and coaches the courage to use their backlines, these two men laid a lot of ground work for the South Africans to add another string to their bow, even if they didn't always use it. As a Tahs fan, I'm thrilled to have Louden on board. ON DROP GOALS and NEW LAWS Hopefully the new Law changes will reduce the effectiveness of the penalty goal as a method to ensure victory - I'd leave the points as they are. Its worth noting a team like England can still win games with a 10-man plan. But they'll need to start developing an idea about backline attack rather than kick-and-hope. We've also seen in the ARC that more cards are being handed out by refs with a carte blanche for professional fouls. Hopefully this goes on to S14 and Test level where refs are under pressure not to affect the result, and therefore don't want to disadvantage a team. I've always maintained that an early card or two allows a team to recover better than one late in the game. We saw with Fiji v Wales that Dickinson warned the Welsh about their infringing, but as soon as the Fijian playing copped a card, he seemed to forget about the original warning to the men in tight red disco shirts. ON NEW ZEALAND'S CONTINUING RECALCITRANCE and THE GROWTH OF THE GAME Well some of the stuff printed here is hearsay, and some of it is based in fact. Its becoming clear though that for events of this nature, New Zealand will need to make a good fist of 2011 in order to stay in rugby's good books. The belief that NZ is a spiritual home of rugby is going to be eclipsed by the fact that their market that has no growth potential and will be left behind as rugby grows on the world stage. In Australia we know well that there is still a long way to go, and having a fight on your hands (NRL, AFL, and A-League) is the best way to strengthen yourself for growth. Ultimately if South Africa look to the north post-2010, we're going to need to do the same and hammer out a deal with Japan in order to stay viable, and get the Pacific Rim involved in order to help Asia, Pasifika and the Americas come to the fore while Europe looks after itself and its unbalanced club v country debates. New spheres will need to be explored without looking to the traditional powers, and places like the USA and Japan offer the financial incentives to do so.
matty p
Guest
Counterruck, well said my friend. The nature of cup/knockout rugby is you win it by playing and beating the teams you come up against. You can ask the what ifs but you can't knock the team that wins because they did all that they could. Well played to the Saffers, truly deserving cup winners. Temba, Ben and co, you guys should take the winners are grinners attitude any ignore any of the BS to the contrary. We anzacs should be concentrating on what we did wrong, and how to beat boring England, not whether/if England is boring. As to who should replace Mortolock as captain - let's wait and see who steps up in the Super 14!
de Villiers
Guest
Well done Ben Couldn't have said it better myself
jools-usa
Guest
Great article. As to OZ captain it HAS to be a permanent player.................my vote is #1 Giteau, #2 Smith, with Waugh out of contention because despite his passionate contribution he is not the size for #6 or 7 needed in years ahead. Jools-USA
Ben from Pretoria
Guest
Hi Greg No one cares because the Springboks are World Champions No 1 ranked team World Cup Winners Leading try scorer Leading pointscorer Coach of the year Team of the year That's enough for me!
counterruck
Guest
How about we move this "debate" on which is as far as I can tell has been brought up on every single thread. If we could all agree on the following note then I'm sure we could move onto more thoughtful debate. 1) We all should congratulate SA for their win without caveat. 2) England and SA are boring. 3) If the Wallabies and the All Blacks had made it to the semis it would have been a true showpiece for rugby with tries galore [as in 2003 and 1991]*. 4) England are boring and the game would have imploded if they had won RWC 2007. 5) If the All Blacks had made the final they would have won because all their previous results of the past 3 years should be taken into consideration. 6) Did I mention that England are boring. As you can see I'm ready to concede that you find England boring and that you think for the good of the game either the ABs or the Walabies should have won. In return can we keep the little digs out of the comments and debates. On a serious note, this is by far the most interesting and intelligent rugby opinion site on the web. I enjoy reading every single one of your (as in everybody) comments and opinions. I do realise my contributions are well below par so I'll stay out of most of it but these constant digs are a little tedious now and starting to rub a few people up the wrong way as demonstrated by the sensitivity in this and other threads. I would hate to see the intelligent debate reduced to nationalist parochialism. Apologies for the interruption. * Hypocritical, I know but I couldn't resist.
Just a Fan
Guest
DF6 - The debate was that the guys who were sent over were still good enough to give the AB and Wallabies a challange (which they were)- since O'Neill lead the campaign about the Springboks devaluing the competition. But hey I guess the )Depth" arument is only valid for the AB's - only they failed. I mentioned the Island teams to prove a point for a previous post. - but maybe you couldnt grasp that. And it isnt "my" Burger playing the ball...have a look at the reply again - anybody who wasnt Terry the citer (and you) can see that. And there is NO low point to winning the World Cup.
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It's not the Boks fault that the All Blacks didn't make the final. The Boks play the All Blacks three times next season, including two Tests in NZ if I'm right. Considering they haven't won a series in NZ since 1937 and a Test since 1998, they have plenty of opportunity to prove themselves. If the All Blacks win, it'll be good for morale, but Rugby World Cup 2007 is over.
DF6
Guest
Just a fan Firstly there was huge debate early on from the SA fans that it wasnt a 2nd or 3rd string team, secondly you forget that the all blacks beat the boks "A" team in south africa a month earlier and thirdly it was in fact the all blacks 2nd string team that last lostto SA last year in rustenburg Re the penalties, wwll correct me if i am wrong but in the last 5 worldcup finals there has been 5 tries scored (4 by australia) i dont think that this was by any means the boks fault, maybe the average rugby supporter is tired of seeing rugbys biggest game decided by who has the better boot and would like to see a final where if you supported england and they ran in 3 tries but still lost you would have thought "bloody good game by both teams" "I am all for debate - but lets try to make it a little more unbiased and self pitying." you have just slagged off 3/4 of samoa fiji and tonga so are you willing to name the 40 odd players that needed this red card? you are entitled to your opinion but when you start writing borderline biased comments it becomes boring, do you really think people will buy your "burger was playing the ball" I congratulate SA for what they have achieved but as true SA fans you must admit that the one low point in winning the world cup was that you didnt get to beat traditional rivals NZ on the way?
Just a Fan
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: ( no edit button - meant no disrrespect on the spelling of your name - only picked it up after I pressed Post - sorry
Just a Fan
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Tingstar - like i said please lets have some objective debate...because 3/4's of the Samoans. Tongans, and Fiji'ans should have been sent off - not to mention a red card given against Flood in the final, ...and Mccaw should have been pinged a whole lot sooner than the quaters... Burger was playing the ball not the man - that guy was just too slow and got in the way -the stupid Ozzie citer - couldn't be objective either....thats why they had to change his decision... All the teams "bend" the rules.....some just are more intellegent about it and dont get caught.
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I don't see what South African fans have to feel sensitive about, compared to the ridicule that New Zealand and Australia fans have endured over the past few weeks.
tongstar
Guest
lets have some perspective. burger should have been out for the rest of the tournament after his antics against manu samoa. same goes for bakkies in his attacks against tonga. if there was a half decent set of administrators they would rub out the dirty players, and the 'bending' of the rules which some teams really push e.g. puma against france in 3/4 playoff. don't get me wrong - I loved watching saffies win as I know how much this means to their country. I just want to see fair play rule. if this was the case then the islanders would have gone a long way into the final four teams.
Just a Fan
Guest
Welldone Craig and Themba - there were alot of underhanded pot shots at the Saffas in that write up - I wondered if it was me being sentisive. Not sure why eveybody only ever wants to see tries scored - rugby is multidimensional - drop goals and penalty kicks add to it - and if there are too many penalties - the team needs to deal with their discipline and if it as "reffing" thing then do what the Bokke had to do and adjust to the ref..... Why is it that SA only won the S14 because NZ left out 22 top players - but it is SA lost that the tri-nations with out mentioning that none of the games were walkovers and that NZ and OZ only just managed to beat our 2nd and 3rd stringers. And why do people go on about the "easy" draw that SA had - we had the toughest teams to play against - by the their performance in the quarters the ABs and the Wallabies would not have been able to cope with four very physical games on the trot.. I am all for debate - but lets try to make it a little more unbiased and self pitying. Well done Bokke on a well executed World Cup rugby campaign....
de Villiers
Guest
The Bok victory really hurts - wonderful - get used to it boys, another 4 years. Greg, regarding Vickerman - if he's the best you have, you have more problems than you think.
ohtani's jacket
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The best solution I've heard is that if it misses the ball goes back to the defending side, as a scrum, I imagine.