Anticipation for this weekend’s Bledisloe Cup match is reaching fever pitch. For rugby fans, this is like the opening Test of the Ashes, the final leg of the football World Cup, or the NBA playoffs. It’s the grand stage of our sport.
One can only hope it lives up to the hype. And if the opening Tri Nations matches are anything to go by, it should.
This match could well decide who goes on to win the Tri Nations. Back-to-back wins for the Aussies will make them two from two, and shoot them to the top of the table.
A loss for New Zealand will leave them in the precarious situation of being one from three, with a lot of ground to make up on the road.
It is hard to tip a winner here, when both teams are so evenly matched, so I have broken the teams up into key areas where the positional match-ups will decide the outcome.
Front Row
From the three matches I have seen so far, the edge here definitely lies with New Zealand. While there has been marked improvements from the Wallabies, they still trail the Kiwis here. The combination of Sommerville, Woodcock and Hore is the best in the comp.
NZ 5/5 – Aus 3.5/5
Middle Row
Ah, the achilles heel of the mighty All Blacks! Ali Williams’ return is crucial, and they will need him to be on the top of his game for New Zealand to be a show here. Thorn adds the leadership and brute force that they were sorely missing against South Africa. The Wallabies’ middle-row was impressive against South Africa, and even without Vickerman, they have a huge edge over New Zealand’s aerial abilities.
NZ 2.5/5 – Aus 4/5
Backrow
Will he or won’t he? Richie McCaws presence, or lack of it, will be the deciding factor in this battle. Burger was allowed to run rampant in the last match without McCaw, and as good as Soialo is, he is no Richie. The Aussies have two of the best loosies at their disposal in Waugh and Smith, while Elsom has been tremendous. Kaino and Thompson were both found wanting in their last match, and Braid hasn’t had any international time this year. Australians are the favourite in this matchup.
Aus 5/5 – NZ 3.5/5 (McCaw in=5/5)
Halves
Carter is a genius. Ellis is not. New Zealand should dominate this matchup, yet are slight favourites against an ever-improving Burgess and Giteau, due to lack of progress being made from Ellis. His backup, Cowan, is much the same player.
NZ 4/5 – Aus 3.5/5
Midfield
The midfield battle was heavily in favour of Australia until Captain Corageous’ last minute withdrawl. Instead of capitalizing on this by retaining Conrad Smiths’ services, the New Zealand coaches are persisting with rookie Richard Kahui. This has evened the contest, an area Australia look set to dominate.
NZ 4/5 – AUS 4/5
Back three
Can someone explain why Rudi Wulf has been replaced? Sivivatu’s form as been sub-par in this series, and McDonalds injury is a real blow to the blacks. While they have the ever-consistent Mils Muliana at the back to rely on, their set piece moves haven’t set the world on fire and they look underdone as a whole. This is Australia’s weakest matchup, and looks possibly the slowest and weakest back three of all 3. An edge to the All Blacks.
NZ 5/5 – AUS 3/5
Coaching
Deans is a super-coach who rarely makes a mistake; Henry often has confusing “what the?” moments in coaching, substitutions and selections. Deans also has more experience under the new ELVS, while Henry has years of international experience. Deans wins here.
NZ 4/5 – AUS 5/5
Misc items
Home ground advantage +1 to Australia
Momentum + 1 to Australia
Overall
NZ 28
AUS 30
This will be another epic, but I give Australia the slight edge. By 6 points.
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Mark
Guest
Also, this is a 4 game Bledisloe, kind';ve makes it hard for the Wallabies as they have to win at least 2 & draw 1 just to win. Bit like all those years they held onto teh Bledisloe by winning one game of a two game series %-)
Benjamin
Guest
ABs by 10 plus. Take that beaut down to the bookies asap.
Mark
Guest
Blinky, thanks bud I enjoy the posters here, some guys really know their stuff. Yes, Henry lost that tour but then again it was only just lost, & he wasn't helped by the internal politics of the BL side. You might note that when the BL did tour NZ & played against his AB side they didn't even get a look in. In fact 'hammered' is a polite way of putting it ! I'll pick the AB's as I just can't pick anyone else. The sides are very very very even on paper & I'm really looking forward to the different clashes, scrum vs lineout vs breakdown vs raw strong midfields vs greased lightning wingers vs support plays, I'm salivating at the thought of it. As for 'death riding' the AB's, take that for what it is, complete & utter hogwash. Roll on Sat night.....
Blinky Bill - Bellingen
Guest
Mark - I like many of your observations, even if I disagree with you on "I know who I’d rather have coaching for an international", which I presume you mean G.H. Wasn't he the coach for the Lions? On paper the teams look pretty even. However, based on what I'm seeing of the ABs arriving and isolating themselves before the game, I think this could just be the thing to add extra pressure to an already doubting AB team. It may be as simple as the stirness of GH (do as I say) versus the relaxed RD (trust your instincts & enjoy yourselves). For mine the RD approach suits the Australian mentality. Who knows, maybe the GH way is best for the AB's. Either way it's going to be great. Wallabies by 5.
Jason Cave
Roar Rookie
Looking forward to this one. It's International rugby's version of State-of-Origin. I think the Wallabies will win, although it depends very much largely on how the Wallabies scrum hold up against the All Blacks. The danger man as far as the Wallabies is concerned, is Dan Carter. If Carter is in form, then the Wallabies are in trouble. They must not give any silly penalties within goalscoring range, because Dan Carter is one of the best penalty kickers in world rugby. As far as the coaching battle is concerned, it will be a beauty. Robbie Deans v Graham Henry is sure to be a great battle. Whoever gets the tactics & gameplans right will come out on top. I'd never thought I hear the majority of New Zealanders 'death riding' the All Blacks. If something like that had happened 20 years ago, it would be very un-New Zealand like to do it. I predict a Wallby win by 6 points.Australia 26 New Zealand 20
Mark
Guest
Oh there's some brave men picking scores in this one, although the only consistency is a close game. I have to pick the AB's but Wallabies at home, oh that makes me nervous. AB's have had a weeks rest & it's rare they lose two in a row, Wallabies beat a tired but very good SA.. Disagree with the coaches comment, Henry has the best International record in the world (or close to it), Deans has the best first division record, I know who I'd rather have coaching for an international. The lineout should be interesting, AB's did well in first 4 tests but with too much new new blood in Dn got hammered. I cannot wait for 8pm Sat night, kids in bed, telly on, stubby of Kingfisher in hand, & DVD on record for those poor mates who don't have Foxtel & have to wait until 11:45 pm for an ad interrupted replay in Melbourne. Might be generous & drop it off to them at 10pm. Oh yeah, in melb Channel 7 are showing Princess Bride 2 & then some 90's film until over 2 hrs after the test has finished. Way to go Channel 7 !