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There’s a saying that there are lies, damn lies and then there are statistics. It applies aptly to sport where, in the process of trying to rank an individual or a team, people try to create an exact science by looking at stats.
Last weekend’s Bledisloe Cup Test between Australia and New Zealand is a prime example of why I cannot stand stats.
After the Test, many people praised the Wallabies for their energetic performance, but noted how they didn’t gain a lot of possession. Some criticism was aimed at the All Blacks for not making proper use of their apparent glut of possession.
I maintain the only way to really understand how a team played is to have watched them play with your own eyes.
The first ten minutes of last weekend’s game were fantastic for Australia. Their most effective tactic was unquestionably their ability to kick the ball just outside New Zealand’s 22, preventing them from kicking for territory.
It was fantastic!
Matt Giteau, Berrick Barnes, Lote Tuqiri and Adam Ashley-Cooper at different stages in the first half, put up many high balls which landed only metres outside of New Zealand’s 22.
It should be obvious to anybody who saw those first ten minutes that the Wallabies were pressuring the All Blacks tremendously well. Australia’s loose-forwards have been tremendous – George Smith in particular – and New Zealand looked troubled trying to maintain possession.
After just four minutes New Zealand were given a line-out deep inside their 22 and Dan Carter, for the first time in the match, was able to kick for touch. The look of the All Black forwards said it all, they wanted to play rugby downfield.
But it wasn’t long before another perfectly weighted kick landed just outside the All Black 22 and once again, they were under pressure.
Mils Muliaina booted the ball downfield and Loti Tuqiri made an incisive counter-attacking run, off-loaded to Nathan Sharpe and Australia went on the register their first try from the next phase.
It would appear obvious to anybody who saw the game that Australia were pressuring New Zealand, but because of the amount of times they kicked the ball just outside New Zealand’s 22, New Zealand were dominating possession statistically.
I will submit that in the last 20 minutes of the first half, I thought the All Blacks were starting to get on top of the Wallabies.
They were able to work their way downfield and had a good amount of ball. But at the end of the Test the stats showing New Zealand had 70 per cent of the ball really doesn’t highlight who dominated the game.
A friend remarked that Australia had a tremendous amount of territory of the game, which he couldn’t figure out since Australia had such little possession. This highlights that stats aren’t always a good indication of who dominated a game.
Australia won because of what they did with their possession to maintain territory which pressured New Zealand until they cracked.
It’s a common mistake people make.
Not long ago people talked about how Ireland dominated the statistic for territory against Australia, and many deduced that Australia’s forwards played poorly. Australia’s forwards played quite alright, though they were hardly fantastic.
The real story was that the kicking of Giteau and Barnes, unlike the recent Bledisloe Test
was quite poor. Their clearing kicks didn’t find touch and quite often they squandered their possession.
Australia should be trilled they beat New Zealand on the weekend. Their scrum held up most of the time, the loose-forwards were tremendous and Giteau and Barnes showed a glimpse of what they were capable of as a 10 and 12 combo.
Only for short stages in the game was a lack of possession an issue, something statistics don’t reveal.
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