As the semi-finals loom, Wellington and Canterbury will host upstarts Southland and Hawkes Bay to host the pundits dream final In fact, upstarts is probably a harsh term considering that both those teams finished in the top five for the 2008 regular season.
Southland had lost two games leading up into the finals but posted the most numerically comprehensive result of the quarter finals, travelling to enemy territory to smash the fourth placed finishing Bay of Plenty 45-11 to secure their place in the last four.
Hawkes Bay, the surprise packet of the season, hosted 2006 champions Waikato who had welcomed back a host of front line All Blacks to try and turn around what had been a poor season by the proud provinces high standards.
After they trailed the impressive men from the bay 28-0 at half time, the Waikato boys, led by All Blacks Sitiveni Sivivatu and Richard Kahui, scored 28 points in the second half. But a solitary penalty goal and impressive defence in the last ten minutes won the game for Bay of Plenty, who are rewarded with a trip to the most hellish of New Zealand road trips – a game against giants Canterbury at their fortress in Christchurch.
This brings us to the two top qualifiers for the 2008 season – the provincial giants Wellington and Canterbury.
The men from the Capital had been all but unbeatable this season, utilising a flamboyant attacking style which was to see them record a rare unbeaten season, before coming undone in their last game of the season losing to Otago 36-21.
With a team full of young mavericks, many of whom will earn All Black call ups for the end of year tour (namely fullback, Cory Jane, and winger, Hosea Gear), they play an offensive style that no team has been able to effectively shut down.
They defeated Taranaki 50-30 in their quarter final, but again their freewheeling style almost came undone when opposed against hardnosed grafting rugby.
They have conceded 66 points in their last two games, compared to 125 points in their first nine games of the year. However, they did wrest the historic Ranfurly Shield off Auckland in a 27-0 thumping and that will be tucked away in the Wellington trophy cabinet for the rest of the year.
Canterbury, the perennial overlord of New Zealand rugby, has come into form at the right time, righting a round one upset loss to Manawatu (ironically, their only win of the season) to come into the semi-finals on the back of a ten game winning streak.
Equally full of up-and-coming players, their trump card at this stage of the season has been the re-entry of the Test players, with All Black captain and arguably the world’s best player Richie McCaw likely to start for Canterbury in their run to the final.
They have exhibited the pragmatism and patience recently that has allowed them to dominate New Zealand rugby for some time.
Test coach Graham Henry made a comment some weeks ago that the standard of the Air New Zealand Cup was down from previous seasons, but the reality is that the competition has been of a consistent standard and crowds have averaged nearly 7,000 over the whole season.
But it has been the feats of Hawkes Bay, Bay of Plenty, Southland and the Tasman unions to make the top eight that has showcased the healthy spread of depth throughout the New Zealand unions.
Although the absence of stronger unions such as Otago, North Harbour and last year’s champion Auckland from the finals is a cause for concern, it shows that the consistent top level competition that the smaller teams have been exposed to is paying dividends and snapshots the wider global need for minnow teams to play powerhouses to strengthen their playing quality.
On paper, it points to a Wellington and Canterbury final.
But as the season has shown, no team is making up the numbers, and both Southland and Hawkes Bay respectively will be danger teams to their more fancied rivals.
Wellington captain and All Black halfback Piri Weepu remarked this week that Wellington will not change their ostentatious style and will continue to play the “entertainers” of the competition. This will be while Canterbury continue to graft and shut down teams, as they have been doing for many years.
The Wellington Lions will be mindful to look to the lessons of other fancied teams in various sports tournaments where the champions are always the teams that look to win by any means necessary, rather than trying to be the losing side that “looked entertaining.”
Weepu does not want to echo the comments of New Zealand captain McCaw after the All Blacks World Cup loss to France where he famously said “at least we played attractive rugby.”
Attractive rugby may be just that, but it does not always guarantee the desired result.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
How was the Wellington/Southland game? Sounded like it was pretty good.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Wellington seemed to have peaked with the Shield victory. I'm picking Canterbury.
Sam Taulelei
Guest
If there are any rugby fans in Australia interested in watching both semifinals they will be screened live on Fox Sports 3 at 5:30pm on Friday and Saturday this weekend. Looking forward to seeing how some of the possible All Black contenders will shape up this weekend for the end of year tour. Go Lions.
van der Merwe
Guest
Ja, the All Blacks lost to a team that ultimately lost three times in the tournament (at home), so going to have to disagree there. All Blacks unfortunately peaked two years too soon. The Aussies did not have a front row and would have been destroyed by Os. As for Ireland, If only Georgia scored that last minute try...
James Mortimer
Guest
VDM, it wasn't so much that they were average but that the AB's were a bit dum and Wallabies were outplayed. The All Blacks and their unholy triumvate of coaches made mistakes leading into the QF that every New Zealander seemed to pick. We have already dissected many times the countless reasons, but as the parallel point I make in regard to Wellington in the ANZC is that the best teams don't always win championships as much as the best - or in my belief - most pragmatic gameplan. The Wallabies were simply shut down in their forwards in their QF, their perennial weakness. But - as much as I give credit to the Bok's for winning the Cup, only the most partisan and one eyed South African could actually admit that it would have been far harder to win if they had to play any of the - at the time - other top five ranked nations; NZ, Aust, France or Ireland. I love to fantasise of course about the "what if", but 2007 is ancient history and 2008 has seen the boys reassert themselves - I look forward to a Grand Slam to cap of a great year of redemption for NZ rugby.
Nick (KIA)
Guest
Thanks for that J, I must have missed that comment from McCaw - I think I wasn't perhaps listening attently at that point.... I think it's important to draw a distinction between NPC sides (I can't stop using that term) and S14 sides - they are quite different. To pick up on your point, Canterbury have not been dominant during this period perhaps because Carter and McCaw don't actually play that many games for them, and when they do they are fairly rusty. Eg last year when they reappeared to lose the semifinal. Last weeks appearance from the bench was Richie's 29th for Canterbury - he's played more than twice as many tests, and twice as often for the Crusaders. Carter has only appeared 19 times, compared to 58 for Crusaders, and 54 tests. VDM, The Boks beat who they had to to win the World Cup. I think by their standards since professional rugby started they'd be about average. ABs also about average, and Wallers below average, in my estimation.
van der Merwe
Guest
If the Springboks were average, what did that make the All Blacks and Wallabies?
James Mortimer
Guest
Nick, in the post match interviews after that Dark dark dark day in Cardiff, both Henry and McCaw were interviewed and our headmaster coach said something along the line off (don't quote me) - well, that's sport isn't it. McCaw, far from the captain that he is becoming now - truly becoming Umaga-esque this season - all but shrugged his shoulders and made the remark "at least we played attractive rugby". It was a comment that was burned into me, especially as I watched an average Springbok team win the Cup doing exactly the opposite, playing a simple, all but boring and effective gameplan to win the championship as England did four years previously. In the lengthy world cup review that was commissioned by the NZRU, it was revealed that in the last moments of the game against France that the AB's brainstrust did indeed instruct the players to attempt a drop goal to win the match - but interviews with McCaw and So'oialo revealed that they thought that they would break the French line "by playing rugby". In the AB's magical four years of dominance between 2004-2007 they were great conquerers of the world, but careful review of their losses, namely in Rustenburg and Melbourne - showed that arrogance and a insistence to be flamboyant proved their undoing, with the men in black kicking half as much as the opposition showing a consuming desire to run the ball from anywhere and not playing the percentages. I digress from the point, but it has been shown now in all sporting codes that to play "attractively" is never a guarantee to the result, and it is methodical structured gameplans that will shut down flamboyant gaming operations - and as a Wellington supporter I hope the Lions don't get to cocky as it would be a terrible waste for the dominant team of the 2008 New Zealand domestic season not to hoist the trophy. As for the remark about Canterbury being perenial overlords on the surface it is a inaccurate statement, as Wellington especially, even in the Super 14 has become a truly consistent force. But unlike the 80's and 90's where Auckland was the powerbase of New Zealand rugby it would be fair to say now that Canterbury - if anything on the back of their Super rugby success - is now that giant, if not for their results, for the simple fact they wield the All Blacks twin jewels, and no doubt the worlds best players, McCaw and Dan Carter.
Nick (KIA)
Guest
Nice piece James. I think you're likely to be correct about W and C making final. But when and where was R McCaw quoted as saying “at least we played attractive rugby" after Cardiff? I never heard that before, and it doesn't sound like him to me, in the context of other things he and others said at the time. Also we should note (I'm from Canterbury) that the Crusaders have been dominant but that Canterbury have been less so in recent years (in reference to 'Perennial Overlords' tag). Overall, Canterbury have won 5 NPC/ANZ Cups, one more than Wellington, and 11 less than Auckland's 16. Canterbury lost semi last year, and lost in QF in 2006 (both to Wellington). Last win was in 2004.