Two ferocious rugby finals, and a warning to European rugby

Matt, Currie Cup only gets big crowds for the big derbies involving the Big 5 of South African Rugby (Bulls, Province, Lions, Sharks, Cheetahs). The likes of the Valke, Griquas and Cavaliers get very poor crowds.

Never got to see the Currie Cup Final, but I am always at awe for the size of the crowds they get to their 'third-tier" competition. It always gives me the impression that, although SA crowds are the largest of the 3 SANZAR S14 nations, that a SH HK equivalent (with Provincial Qualification) would be something that the Saffas would REALLY embrace, as well as NZers too. The NPC final was a bit dissappoining, mainly due to the weather. The previous knockout games (quarters and semis) leading up to the Grand Final had all been great spectacles, with positive play from all teams involved. Of the 7 finals games the Grand Final was by far the most dour and also the highest amount of fundemental errors (dropped ball etc). It was also the worst kind of advertisment of the ELVs of the entire competition. I am confident that the scoreline would have been in favour of the Lions had the weather been kinder. The fact that 22,000 still turned up in those conditions showed that the fans were still expecting a spectacle, even in the heavy night rain. But, despite the final, once again the NPC has unearthed another generation of amazing rugby players destined for bigger things. The Black jersey still has some real depth of talent and it was also positive to see a host of AB's resigning with the national Union for a few more years yet. The new caps are all promising talents and it will be interesting to see how Henry and Co introduce them to the test arena. Most interest is how far the NZ proping stocks have come in only 5 years?! Both Franks and MacIntosh look to be great prospects and they should do more than hold their own in the north. Even with Hayman and Sommerville up North (and Shwalger left at home) there are still the likes of Wyatt Crockett who can't get a cap!! A new generation of loosies will also be unleashed, with Messam and Read finally getting a go after all the previous commentary of their potential. As will the older stateman, Scott Waldrom, who has the out and out pace of a winger and who will look to fill the long awaited backup flanker role for Richie McCaw. Corey Jane and Hosea Gear will add even more danger to the already dangerous outside backs (as well as the long awaited return of the prolific try scorer that is Rokocoko). The only real question mark hangs around the No.12 jersey (as seems to be the case with most National Sides as present?!). But it looks like Richard Kahui might be given a go at this troublesome position. Meanwhile, the Wallabies have had 4 gruelling weeks of fitness training and will no dount look to unleash a furious and aggressive style to their NH opposition. Pundits writing them off might be in for a surprise. Deans has certainly added value in his short tenure thus far (less than 6 months) and he'll be looking to introduce more of his systems to a team full of promise and energy. Finally, with many rugby fans blaming the ELV's for the current kickfest and also labelling the sanctions laws a 'cheats charter', it will be interesting to see how the NH sides cope with the SH at the break down and over the 80 minutes. The Tri-Nations certainly brought about another level of match fitness and also a higer aggression at the breadown, forged by the new sanctions rulings. This saw SH teams really targeting the breakdown, with both superior numbers and also the use of men on their feet counter rucking. This actually bodes well for these teams if the matches officials continue to penalise players going off their feet. The Canterbury team on the weeked are the perfect case in point for this tactics (lead of course by McCaw). As always the breakdowns and match fitness will be key. It was where England and Ireland were out done by the AB's in NZ and the experience of the SH teams in this area must be a sizable advantage this time around too.

Hayden, you're absoultely right, I think the one thing in favour of England is that NZ will have played so many games by the time they meet. Who knows what injuries they MAY pick up? It is also hard to gauge the potential form of the SH teams because the 3N was transitional and the tactics of PDV meant that we never saw the true SA, which in turn mans that we never saw the true Australia or NZ. Likewise I don't think England could ever be as bad as they were last summer in NZ. I am not expecting great things from England but I do expect better than we saw under Robinson or Ashton. If the pack play with fire and the backs show invention then I'm happy. Progress is normally a slow process after all. I would take England to beat Australia due to the Wallabies missing Vickermann and Elsom but I would expect NZ to win. If the ABs manage a grand slam then it would be a better achievement than in 06. Who knows though? Frankly I can't wait.

Hayden, I'm a English but I'm still going for a New Zealand win. However, if Brian Smith can get the backs moving, to add to what I believe could be a dynamic forward pack with Croft and Rees etc, then it could be a different story. But it's sure to be a titanic contest. This All Black team isn't as good as the one in 2006 but it still has quality all over the pitch.

Bob / Benjamin: Thanks for the well thought out points of view. It is too easy to take journos at their word and think they are representative of common opinion. BTW - everyone seems to be taking an AB slam for granted. If they pull it off, it will be a superb effort, but Eng at Twickers are never easy, and as they play them last I wouldn't take an AB victory for granted. It is the reverse of the June tours - NH players relatively fresh, SH players thinking about the beach.

Very well said Bob. There is the bizarre perception of English rugby in the SH, none of which seems to be true but is nonetheless perpetuated by certain people who should know better. There are still the tally-ho types who call Wilkinson JW and think he is the best player ever and that English rugby is the best by birthright but then there are also the regular types who go to games every week, who play every week and who embody the best and truest spirits of rugby. I was personally gutted when NZ were knocked out to France simply because they had set new standards of play. Despite having a rather juvenile and personal dislike of Wales I was also ecstatic to see them win their two Grand Slams. Why? Because of the rugby they played. The average English fan loves running rugby just as much as the average Kiwi or Australian fan. To that extent rugby fans all share similar characteristics and unecessary and personal tubthumping by people like Spiro, Peter Bills and Stephen Jones is nothing but divisive. Incidentally if anybody is interested, and with all sincerity, I decided to work out the 3N try stats since 2002 having read a column by Peter Bills in which he arrogantly and ignorantly labelled the ELV critics as dinosaurs and stated that the ELVs produced superb rugby. Under the ELVs in 2008 the 3N tournament produced 4.6/7 (I don't have my stat sheet at hand) tries per game. If you discount the 07 3N due to the Kiwi conditioning period and White's rotation policy then the average amount of tries scored per game in the 3N since 2002 is.... 4.6/7 per game. Exactly the same. Thus the ELVs have had no tangible effect on the amount of tries per game.

Lol ... nice one Bob .... so the AB shirt is the highest selling shirt in England, therefore you must have a NZ expat population similar to Sydney and Brisbane .... half the guys I play touch footy with on the Sunshine Coast are also NZers !!! They've got national elections next week, makes you wonder if their leading political parties actively source the expat vote .... maybe they'ed win in a landslide !!! Back to rugby .... I agree with the main thrust of your points .... the ELVs won't fix everything. To go back to an old chestnut they should never have changed the rules for rucking back in 95, the breakdown has been a mess ever since.

Hayden, I agree that the SH players often have a more full skill set, but my point is that they usually won under the old laws too, and when people like spiro say "European officials and coaches have generally never been able to read the true game of rugby properly." you have to wonder if he's stephen Jones' love child... what is "the true game of rugby"? Is it not the game that fills NH stadia week after week, is it the NH fans watching the HC, the GP, the French top 14, the Magners, and the s14, curry cup, and NZ provincial rugby? I think so... I think the true game oif rugby is alive and well in the NH, because we embrace ALL rugby. We love the SH teams coming north and bringing their particular brand, and if we lose we lose... we don't undermine the SH players and teams, we dont insult or denegrate... we respect, not because they win, but because they play rugby! And they did it just as well, in their own style under the old laws... spiro would have you believe that there was no running rugby before the elvs... but then again, he never played the game, did he? I would argue that the Wallabiies and AB's ran pretty well and played a pretty expansive game before the elvs were ever dreamed of... that's not to say some aspect of the elvs are not worth keeping, they are, but they are not the magic fix their supporters sold them as.... Point of fact, the AB shirt is the number one selling international shirt in England, outselling the England shirt... because amongst a lot of players and fans, they are the team of the people... the laughable and insulting notions people like spiro have, are more out of touch as those of the laughably biassed Stephen Jones!

Scotty, actually Ireland have always done well - to an extent - when on tour but McCaw said after the games that England had tested them more than Ireland had and that NZ always felt they could slip up an extra gear against the Irish. Having said that it was only O'Sullivan's errant coaching that has held Ireland back over the years. They have always produced intelligent backs and Fitzgerald, Kearney, Sexton and Earls suggests that this is still the case. However Ireland has also had far more time together as a team due to the provincial agreements with the IRFU. England have not. Therefore it is true that whilst Ireland have under achieved, England have over achieved. You only have to look at the last WC to see that.

Spiro I don’t anticipate any real changes from previous SH tours the teams are well prepared and usually the AB’s and SA packs are pretty fierce some. I would also expect the Wallabies pack to rise to the challenge. They must be totally fed up with various comments about the poor quality of their pack, particularly at prop. Deans will sort it out. All the SH teams will be well briefed on the NH squads, as there are enough SH coaches in the NH for them to get an accurate pen pictures on every NH squad player with an up to date analysis on their strengths and weaknesses. So I am looking forward to the contests. I am not making any predictions because there too many unknowns particularly from an England perspective as to how the Johnson era will unfold. At least under the new club/country agreement the Elite squad met yesterday and will be together for the entire autumn series. It will be the first time that this has ever occurred; the days of turning up on Thursday for an international on Saturday disappeared with the onset of the professional era or having to play club games during the series have gone for ever. I think it was Paul Ackford in the Telegraph who remarked it will be a good test bed for the 2009 6N’s. Hopefully Johnson would have sorted out combinations and provided there are not too many injuries then with consistency in selection; England will be more coherent and play to their strengths which may surprise some as being in the backs. The new kids on the block are career professionals, they entertain the public at club level and they have to perform to keep the punters happy, they also realise that if successful at international level their stock will rise increasing their earning potential both on and off the pitch. On ELV’s, I would say the global trial has largely gone unnoticed other than for an increase in aimless kicking which gets increasing rubbished by spectators and commentators alike. Gradually over the weeks the kicking skills of some have improved, but too many kick into the gods and chase furiously Whether under the ELV's or the old rules the breakdown is the biggest bone of contention with inconsistency in referreeing and frankly it is a mess.

"I’m not running England down, but thier backs have shown nothing against the Big 3 for a long old time now. Thier forwards are workmanlike and strong, but subject to being out-thought." I agree in regards to the backs and I think that will change with Brian Smith there. But we have always tended to beat at least one of the SH powers when they have toured Europe, simply because of our strong pack. We may not have hammered the SH teams but we have generally done better than Ireland, Wales and Scotland in the AI's.

The team the SH have most to fear is Ireland without a doubt. They showed by far the best performance down under, where England were royally thrashed in all the games, and Wales in one of theirs, and held on for a good old time until it blew out at the end. In contrast a Ireland could have beaten the Wallabies with more luck, and were a good shot to topple NZ in one of the games. I'm not running England down, but thier backs have shown nothing against the Big 3 for a long old time now. Thier forwards are workmanlike and strong, but subject to being out-thought.

Yes I have hardly recovered from all those thrashings the NH teams have given the Wallabies in Oz these last 5 years......

van der Merwe, that's completely irrelevant because Spiro claimed that SA forward power would trouble the European nations and they should watch out. Firstly it isn't as if SA forward power is unheard of but regardless of recent scorelines the SA pack has not toubled England, Italy or France in nearly a decade. Thus Spiro's assertions that Europe should be worried might only be appropriate when referring to Scotland, Wales and Ireland. I think Botha and du Plessis are far better scrummagers than Mujati. van der Merwe monstered him recently and if Botha has struggled then it is likely that Smit would struggle even more. Hayden, I would agree with you in some cases but by and large the HC provides the stepping stone and players of true class like Care and Cipriani handled the step up pretty well anyway. Class will always prevail I suppose. Sambobly, fair enough but the Chiefs have always been good value.

I believe England will beat South Africa and Australia. The England back-row, if inexperienced is very dynamic and hopefully with Brian Smith as backs coach they can get them moving. Hayden-I think the Heineken cup is our version of the super 14, just played at a higher intensity IMO. Also every game is important as a team generally can't realy afford to lose two games in the group stages. Also it will be interesting to see how the SH team's play the 'global' ELV's. With the free-kick rule, it became a bit of a 'cheats charter.' Will the like of Australia and New Zealand continue to infringe at the breakdown when a penalty is on offer? Will they just do it subconciously? I heard a NH comentator praise the kick out of the 22 rule for once because "it kept the ball in play longer." Does he watch any rugby? I like the 5m scrum rule and the passing back off a quick line-out. From the games I watched in the EDF this weekend two teams used these rules perfectly to great effect. Back to the AI's and Wales will hopefully turn up against SH opposition for once and put a couple wins on them. However, there have been a lot of political wrangling's in Wales in the past week, with rumour's that Warren Gatland was set to leave his post. Hopefully that won't distract the team's preparations. Ireland's provincial sides look promising with both Munster and Leinster looking the strongest HEC sides atm. Will it transfer internationally? They have promising young players coming through in the likes of Flizgerald and the already established Kearney. I expect Scotland to fail, as everyone else expects them to do. They have some excellent players, potentially world-class in the Lamont brothers and Blair. However, they have too many average players and a fly-half in Dan Parks who doesn't really do anything. It's time to give Phil Godman a chance.

Spiro you mentioned the poor number 10's in SA briefly. Did you know that the last time the sharks won the Currie cup was back in 1996 the flyhalf for that season and in the final was the legendary Thierry Lacroix. Olivier Roumat was also in the forwards. Ironically the sharks won again 12 years later with another French flyhalf.

I would argue that the Brumbies are an example of an Aus side playing good, expansive and skillful rugby in the super 14. The results haven't gone their way in the past 2 years but historically they are one of the most innovative sides in super rugby and probably the world. It is a bit rich to say that all the skillful play comes from the NZ sides seeing as most of it really just comes from the Crusaders and (less often) the Auckland Blues.

I can't believe I agree with Benjamin - if the GP or Heineken Cup churned out results like these in a key match the SH hacks would be the first to jump on them as an example of boring old school rugby. The NPC final was pretty poor (in difficult conditions - funnily enough, conditions experienced in the NH week in week out). As an advocate of the ELVs the rule about kicking out on the full even from inside the 22 has resulted in way more kicking and has to be ditched.

Wellington lost focus. They spent the best part of the second half camped in Canterburies half trying to breakdown their defence and didn't have one shot for a drop goal. And the Wellington weather kicked in and they dropped one pass after another, pity. And Canterbury this ANZ Cup have uncovered another genuine goal kicking flyhalf in Colin Slade, watch out for this kid next year…he looks every bit the real thing.

First of all, the games on the weekend were good games, I enjoyed them both, curry cup a little more but over all pleasant rugby weekend. Now, the constant kicking in these matches and most of the other matches played in the NZ-cup and Curry-cup is really starting to grind me. It also seems that its being used more and more the longer we test these new laws, especially in the finals. Now this should show people that the laws had nothing to do with the so called boring RWC final. The ELVs did nothing to changed the style of finals rugby. (by style I mean tight way finals are played) This up coming tour will show how much class there is in the south, I don't expect any of the NH teams to do much damage. Australia under Deans will be the weakest of the 3 teams heading up north and still id favor them above any of the euro teams. South Africa under De puppet will be stronger then in the 3N as I expect PDV to have learned his lesson on running every ball from back in Johannesburg to try and score under the post in twicknham. I don't need to say much about the AB's, I don't think they will lose a single game. If I had to put a figure to it, id say 90% of the games will be won by teams from the south.