The Chinese have a saying: “For a journey of a thousand miles, it is necessary to make the first step.” In terms of the Wallabies attempt to capture a third Rugby World Cup in 2011, the tour that is starting in Hong Kong on Saturday and then travels on to Padova, Twickenham, Paris, Cardiff and Wembley, is, in sports parlance, the first hard yards to a successful RWC journey.
In the lead-up to the tour, three factors have revealed the thinking of Robbie Deans on the difficult nature of the tour, and in mounting a successful RWC challenge.
First:
Deans tried to prepare for a future frontrow that will not include Matt Dunning and Al Baxter. This is a crucial element in the success of the Wallabies in years to come. Unless a competitive frontrow can be created, Test after Test and not just for the occasional match, the Wallabies will always be vulnerable to losses in one-off, special Tests.
Incidentally, this is a problem that the All Blacks selectors recognise in the Wallabies.
Some rugby people might have wondered at the name Ben Franks in the All Blacks touring squad. Franks is a useful prop for the Crusaders, but not as dynamic as, say, Wayne Crockett, who was not selected. But Franks was born in Australia, and therefore eligible to play for the Wallabies and to undoubtedly strengthen the propping options.
But not now, although he has a younger brother who is also a sound prop.
The All Black selectors, therefore, have effectively warehoused Franks the way Deans has warehoused Quade Cooper (previously eligible for New Zealand) and James O’Connor (eligible for South Africa and New Zealand).
The odd player out in all of this was Kurtley Beale, who is eligible to play for Australia only, for the next three years.
Second:
The policy of the players “playing what is in front of them” foundered during the Test season with the revelation that the players as a group (with the exception of Matt Giteau and George Smith) did not have the skills or rugby nous to make effective decisions on the run.
Third:
As a consequence of this, Deans organised no fewer than four training camps to try and get the playing skills up and the improve the understanding of how to launch counter-attacks to exploit breakdowns in the play of the opposition. I once asked Deans why the Crusaders were so adept and accurate in launching dangerous counter-attacks. He looked at me quizzically, thought about the answer, and said: “I can tell you it doesn’t happen by accident. It takes endless practice.”
The other deficiency with the Wallabies Deans discovered was that they weren’t really fit.
Greg Growden recently pointed out that this Test season the Wallabies scored 24 tries and conceded 25. Of those 25 tries, 15 were scored in the second half, and 10 were scored in the last quarter of the Test.
So much of the work at the four training sessions was brutal fitness stuff.
This full-on training resulted in a list of casualties, including James Horwill, who I believe was being groomed to be the captain of the 2011 RWC campaign.
Deans concedes that his strategy of opting for training camps rather than getting the players to play matches might tell against the Wallabies at Hong Kong where they come up against an All Blacks for whom many of the players have been playing regularly over the last two months.
The other problem with the Hong Kong match, as well as the other Tests, is that it is an away game.
This is true for the All Blacks too. But the All Blacks are much better both currently and historically winning away from home than the Wallabies.
Two factors might work for the Wallabies, however,
The first is that it’s likely to be very hot in Hong Kong. The Wallabies have done most of their training in Sydney under much hotter conditions than in New Zealand.
The second is that the New Zealand players have been playing under a new scrum call of ‘crouch, touch, en-gage!, rather than elongated ‘crouch, touch, pause, en-gage’!
The timing of the All Blacks front row may well be off for most of this Test.
Also, the New Zealand players have been playing under the short-arm sanction for most infringements at the ruck and maul.
Against this is the fact that with more full-arm penalties, Daniel Carter’s longer and more accurate goal-kicking over Stirling Mortlock and Matt Giteau could be an advantage for the All Blacks.
Once the Wallabies get to Europe they will probably encounter cold, slippery and wet conditions. Traditionally, the Wallabies don’t play well in these sorts of conditions.
The Wallabies have had only one unbeaten European tour since the professional era. That was in 1996 when Greg Smith was the coach. It will be a tremendous achievement if Robbie Dean’s team could win all the Tests on this tour.
Being realistic you would think that of the four Tests, an excellent result would be three Test wins out of the four.
And a two out of four wins in the Tests would be at the lowest level of a pass mark result.
All this, of course, is conjecture.
The ‘blood and iron’ creator of modern Germany, Count Otto Bismarck, once wrote in his journal: “He goest furtherest who knows not where he is going.”
For now, therefore, it’s game on for the Wallabies before journey’s end in 2011.
Jim Boyce
Guest
As always this is terriffic stuff. This is so much better than the most of the media comment, It is great how Spiro starts the ball rolling and away we go. I am looking forward to the observations after Hong Kong. I am interested in the various views about Beale. He is a talent but I have difficulty in thinking he is fit. At the moment I think he like Palu is a good Super 14 player but is not at international level yet. However he has suffered from a Waratah management that has not shown a great undersanding of what happens outside the pack. Best Jim
Tom
Guest
Midfielder, the Sea Eagles and Storm props are all good players (except for Brett White, who is as soft as a pillow), but they give away a good 10kg to most union props, they are buillt more like no. 8's. Because they don't need to scrummage, they sacrifice a bit of ultimate strength for fitness and speed.
stuff happens
Guest
Excellent post Jim Boyce and I agree with you Andrew B re Cooper;I saw that U20 match too and he let his team down badly.Hopefully he learned that one of the biggest mistakes you can make in any sport is to ponce on the field as if you know you're going to win.If he hasn't learned he won't last long with the Dingo! One of the biggest assets for Kurtley Beale next year will be Matthew Burke's return to the 'Tahs. Ostensibly he's the kcking coach I think ,but he also had a great ability to align backs properly so that they run onto the ball and pass at speed.Why we've regressed in this area in Australia is not clear to me; it used to be a hallmark of Australian rugby and Burke in my view was fantastic.
Simon Taylor
Guest
Hello Spiro, Patricia and I are in Sydney this weekend. Where is the best place to watch the Rugby from Hong Kong? Simon
Andrew B
Guest
Sheek & Hoy, The mistakes Cooper make are not made under pressure or trying anything - he drops ball, kicks poorly and makes bad decisions. I still remember the U20 world championship game vs England where he had an absolute shocker. Not saying he won't be a great player in the future, be Beale is class above at the moment. Beale is truly dangerous ball in hand, and his defence improved throughout the S14 season, but still has a way to go. Looks like we have different opinions :)
True Tah
Guest
Jim, agree that Deans is trying to get our boys as fit as possible, but this bloke leads by example...he is going to run in a marathon and has been training as such. Maybe he should take Dunning along with him. Somehow I dont think the likes of Eddie Jones, John Connolly and Link were ever going to compete in a marathon.
sheek
Guest
Hoy, Agree re Cooper v Beale. On the occasions I saw Cooper in the S14, he made a lot of mistakes. But that was because he was always trying things. At least coach Mooney had the good sense to give him his head. I wonder if Mooney pulled Cooper aside after some of these games, & said, "Okay, you did this, & this happened. Next time, how might you do it differently'? The point is, the fact Cooper is trying things is great. What he needs to learn, is the right moment to do a particular thing. The same problem existed with Campo early in his career. Fortunately, he had the Ellas to advise him. Jim Boyce, You are so right. Each country has its own peculiar style. A coach, whether our own or foreign, needs to develop a style that his players are culturally comfortable with. Verbeek appears to understand this, & Deans is learning same. Deans is terrific, & he'll get it right in the end. But even he would admit it's been a rough journey in his first year. Spiro has provided such wonderful insight into the trials & tribulations faced by Deans.
Midfielder
Guest
Just on the props .......anyone see anyone from the Manly & Storm props who could be placed with a local rugby side for a couple of years and when skill level is high enough put in S14, and be trained for WC assuming three years training for scrum and maul.
Jim Boyce
Guest
Spiro - There is also an old chinese saying which says " He that knows the village he comes from, will find the village he is seeking". In other words there is an Australian style which you refer to in your comments re the Wallabies and" cold , windy and slippery conditions". It then is a matter of building on ones strengths of speed, hardness and improvisation. I loved that expression when Australia beat England at soocer a few years ago. " Australia doesn't play friendlies".Deans has inherited a coaching regime that failed to build on an Australian style and he himself has a learning curve . In another sport, Hiddink had the same problem in that players like Viduka thought they were fit and weren't . Verbeek has profited from Hiddink and has not only inherited a fit group of players but is rapidly developing an Australian style, with a degree of hardness. I think we still lack hardness or a captain in the forwards who makes sure it happens. Deans seems to be carrying this responsibility all on his own. Players lack hardness and fitness due to a pervasive coaching mentality at Super 14 and club level. Where is the Australian Harry Greb when we need him. I am not optimistic, the fitness regime Deans has had to bring on has a cost in injuries. The grounds at this time of year should not be too soft but the pack looks thin.The referees are also a negative factor as some of them get confused and think they are the show. All the best Jim
Spiro Zavos
Expert
Alan Lewis is one my least favourite referees. Both teams are probably going to suffer from his over-officious refereeing. Why they have given a show case game to him is a mystery to me. One of the South African referees should have been given the gig.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Surprised no-one's mentioned the ref, Irishman Alan Lewis. How much of the blame will he shoulder come Saturday evening??
Nick (KIA)
Guest
I think the ABs are concentrating on their own team and not worrying too much about which props Aus can dig up myself. In fact, if the Aussies are worrying about who's doing what in the ABs (eg Giteau commenting on DC moving out, conspiracy theories about Franks) then that's probably a good start for beating them as far as ABs are concerned. You could also argue that not picking Crockett is a risk in itself, in that he's open to being snatched by Euro clubs (I'm not sure of his contract status). I suspect that Franks fits better in ABs plans for reasons pointed out by Jerry, and thats about it. Also, ABs tend to wait a bit with tight forwards generally, see Mackintosh who has been around a while now. Crockett will get a go, as long as he keeps up his good work for Crusaders in S14 next year.
Hoy
Guest
I actually think, and have said before, that Cooper is more creative than Beale, and came on a lot better this year in my opinion. I think he will (hopefully) learn a heap from the set up at the Wallabies, and the old heads, and bring it back to the Reds to play even better next season. Beale has had the Wallabies experience before I believe. I know his team went to the finals, but I just think, to me, he didn't come along as far as Cooper this year. I don't know about O'Connor. Hype always worries me, and this kid seems a lot of hype as he is so young and hasn't had a chance to do much yet. He is pretty light to run around at fullback, even lighter to kick about in the centres. I hope he goes good. I think a great result will be 3 out of 4, but I can see 2 out of 4 being more realistic for this tour.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Afoa, Woodcock and Tialata would've been the props if Afoa wasn't injured. I don't think Franks was ever in the picture for Hong Kong. With Hayman and Somerville gone we need a tighthead and reserve tighthead. Rattue says "Franks is the new John Schwalger, who was the new Clarke Dermody, who was the new Campbell Johnstone, who was the new Saimone Taumoepeau." We'll see about that, but it's more in keeping with Graham Henry selection policies than Aussies might think. The idea of Deans trying to get players to deflect is amusing, though. The Wallabies might end up turning into a pretty decent Super 14 side.
Jerry
Guest
Greg - It's not that difficult to explain - Franks is injured. He missed the Tasman v Canterbury 1/4 final with a lower back injury which he is recovering from. The conspiracy theory is a bit far fetched, here's the reality. There's not many props who can cover both sides of the scrum and the selectors needed someone to replace the departing Sommerville who, along with Tialata, was fulfilling that role in the AB squads. Franks is a development project, no doubt, but that's not to say he's not been selected on merit. Further, Franks was obviously on the selector's radar earlier in the year, as he was called in as cover during the TN when Afoa was injured (but was not required).
Greg Russell
Roar Guru
I like Spiro's "warehousing" theory. It sounds extremely cynical, but it explains things that are otherwise difficult to explain: * Beale does not get selected even though he is just as young as Cooper and has a lot more runs on the board. * Ditto Rob Horne and James O'Connor (actually, what has happened to Horne? He seems to have disappeared without trace after his impressive S14 season). On the NZ side of things, could the All Black selectors really be so paranoid as to worry about Franks defecting to Australia, even though he has said his loyalty lies with Aotearoa? You bet. For one thing, it would more be a case of defecting to Robbie Deans, his mentor at the Crusaders. The other thing is as follows: if G Henry and co. are really so convinced of the merits of Ben Franks, then how to explain that he has been bypassed for the position in Hong Kong of bench prop (the role he performed well for the Crusaders this year), and instead Somerville has been brought in as an emergency measure, even though Gloucester are anxious for him to start? Incidentally, the fact that only Somerville would do confirms Spiro's point that the All Blacks will continue to throw everything that they possibly can at the weak Australian scrum.
sheek
Guest
Great article Spiro, Great recent work by yourself & Rex Goodwin on the Wallabies.
James Mortimer
Guest
Franks selected to shut off his wallaby options.. Sounds like overblown conspiracy to me....... Again, comments are made about the all powerful black scrum. Do you honestly think a change in the engagement announcement will weaken New Zealand? And, for all the media fascination with Deans abilities - this is not a sparkling looking Australian team. Will struggle against forward stylised teams such as NZ and Italy.
mudskipper
Guest
Rob...your sources over exaggerate. Players often talk down opposition, it’s in there nature. It’s up to the coach to tell the players where he expects them to expend their energy on the field.
stuff happens
Guest
I agree with all of your article Spiro ( don't laugh!). This is one tough schedule for all the countries participating including the 6N . I saw a grid somewhere of the Nov tests and was almost cross eyed;it will be a challenge for armchair viewers like me let alone the players! As you say the road to 2011; new coaches, something old, something new no doubt.Also,this is the start of a big year for the Home Countries as there's a Lions tour at the end of it and whatever views we may have it's a much prized honour over there - so interesting month or so ahead.