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There’s been a substantial amount of discussion recently about falling attendances at rugby matches on this site – both North and South – across a number of topics.
TV revenues and gates are falling in New Zealand and Australia, whilst recent reports in the UK have talked about a possible reduction of teams in the Premiership to combat falling gates and reduction in revenue.
Despite that, TV companies have recently struck favourable, and considerable, deals to continue coverage of Northern Hemisphere competitions in Ireland, the UK and France, with the increasingly cosmopolitan nature of the Heineken Cup drawing big attendances at key matches, bigger TV revenues, as well as attracting players from around the globe.
At the moment, there are certain restrictions, such as salary caps in England, which are effectively regulating the market and keeping the ambitions of some of the bigger clubs in check.
But there is a growing trend for particular clubs to dominate and get the biggest crowds and best players. And those clubs know there is untapped potential out there.
In a recent interview, one club CEO said that the creation of a European Super League would be inevitable if market-forces are allowed to dictate how the game evolves. And despite his club’s ambitions, he did not know if that was a good thing.
Ten-twelve clubs might emerge to form this European league – likely to come from just four playing nations – Ireland, France, England and Wales.
Players in Scotland and Italy would either be cast adrift in a lower, poorer quality league, or seek to play for one of the twelve – such as Leinster, Munster, Toulouse, Stade, Clermont, Montpelier or Bayonne, Ospreys, Cardiff, Leicester, Wasps, Gloucester, Northampton, Bath or Quins, depending on who gets their act together best.
It’s interesting to see what Quins are doing with taking their match against Leicester to Twickenham for a 50,000 gate. Yet, after the costs, they are unlikely to make any more money than a 12,500 gate at their local ground.
They see it as necessary ‘brand-building’ for the future.
Maybe the decision has already been made in boardrooms across the various clubs and countries – a privately-held acknowledgment about the inevitable course of the game. But publicly, they are keeping to the spirit and intent of their current leagues.
For the moment, anyway.
Is there anything to be learnt from the past experience of the Southern Hemisphere with Super 14 and its future plans to expand into other countries?
Will a richer European League mean even greater salaries and other attractions for Southern Hemisphere players, and impact further on the competitions and national teams there?
Will Tri-Nations countries need to become more flexible in allowing players to move about, without prohibiting them from playing for their country?
Like it or not, the Tri-Nations need Northern Hemisphere rugby to be healthy, competitive and financially robust. The revenues from Northern Hemisphere Test matches are going to become more and more necessary to keep their coffers topped up.
Diluting the club sector with foreign players has had an impact, certainly in England – less so in Wales and Ireland.
In France, the jury is out, but 2009 will tell a lot.
If the ESL emerges, will the quality of Northern Hemisphere Test squads drop even further as domestic players lose out on their places in club teams?
And yet the Tri-Nations have demonstrably survived – and prospered – despite substantial player drain. And they’ve restricted the import of Northern Hemisphere players.
The fate of Argentina, without being in a strong Test competition, is more problematic. And withdrawals from the Pacific tournament will no doubt impact on the smaller Southern Hemisphere nations.
If a Super League emerges, will there even be room for the many Argentine players who currently ply their trade in France?
As has happened in football already, once market-forces are allowed to flow freely, the game, no matter what the sport, will change.
And change forever.
Some might argue that a market-led game will provide a better, higher quality product that will benefit the future of the game and its appeal to a wider public through smaller numbers but high-value club branding, top quality players and performance.
Others might say that if we allow it to happen, then in fact we will set in train the inevitable destruction of the weaker nations, and the global spread and growth of the game as the grass roots begin to wither and die.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.