New Zealand rugby – what to expect in 2009

The four year rugby cycle is awful. It's a slow grind and makes Test matches meaningless. Obviously the international window doesn't help, but too many teams don't give a s--t what happens now because at the WC it starts from scratch. In an ideal world, teams who've shown good form in the prior four seasons would be rewarded at the WC, but there's the problem with reality and all that, nevertheless when they're actively not caring about winning and losing then the whole of world rugby becomes a John Mitchell journey. As for greatness, well it's up to the observer. I think the 2005-07 All Blacks were a great side regardless of whether they won the Cup or not. The same with the '95-97 All Blacks. If they win the 2011 WC in a low quality tournament, without playing particularly well, the verdict is out...

Who said anything about killing the game? The World Cup has been great for the game. The thing about the good old days is that they're far better in memory than they ever were in practice. Also never said the World Cup was about the All Blacks. We were talking about what greatness means for the All Blacks. My contention has been that winning the World Cup is an essential part of that equation for an All Black side. Anyway, It's going to take us longer to reach consensus on this that it will for the ABs to win a World Cup outside of NZ so, see ya.

The point about the WC and its short history is that the tournament is still maturing. There's only been three WCs played in the professional era, and if you look at other professional sports with a longer history, you'll see that the wait between championships can span far longer than two decades. And, in my opinion, it's worse when that championship is contested every single year. As far as rugby goes, what's harder -- the All Blacks waiting 20+ years for another WC or Ireland waiting 20+ years for another Six Nations crown? Besides, there are other sides who'd like to achieve something at the WC. Some sides would like to win a pool game. Some would like to get out of the pools and make the Semis. England had to wait 15 years to win a WC. France have lost two finals and three semi finals. Ireland and Wales have never made the semis. Scotland had that cruel missed Gavin Hastings' penalty. The WC is not just about us. Wales had a shocker and moved on. We had a shocker and moved on. What's killing the game is the focus on the WC *now*. You can't do anything about the WC in 2009. One Test at a time.

"To be fair, most of the World Cup winners have played like world champs and been great sides. It’s only the South Africans who haven’t done anything of note before or after a WC." To be even fairer OJ, SA's coach (post world cup) does not appear to have the confidence of his players - and if his comments to the media are anything to go by, I don't blame them. That, along with the serious political pressure the Springboks have been under, has had a definte affect on their performance. Sam - this is the last comment I'll make on this cos I feel like we're going in circles a bit: I don't care what appeal the World Cup would have if we had won two or three or five of them. The fact is we haven't. We've tried our hardest and came up short. The side that cracked it would have gone somewhere the last five World Cup All Blacks sides have been unable to go. In my books that qualifies them for greatness. So what if the World Cup has only been going since 1987? It is the premiere rugby competition in the world by a long, long way. I'd argue that based on size, viewership and the amount of resources teams dedicate to it, the World Cup is the most important rugby tournament ever. I agree with you that the Crusaders' dominance of the Super 14 is irritating, but ony because The Blues aren't dominating. PS: Congrats to the Black Caps on their ODI win in Perth. Also credit to the Aussies for not bowling underarm when it was 1 required from the last ball.

I agree with OJ, in the short history of the rugby world cup, it is NZ's inability to win a second title that fascinates, irritates and delights so many rugby fans. It is often said that NZ is the world's best team in between world cups, but if we had won a second or third trophy what impact would that have on the competition's appeal and long term health. Back to James original post, ignoring results in the various competitions I expect the NZRU to increase their leverage of the All Blacks as their cash cow and organise more tests to be played at overseas venues. Graham Henry to announce his desire to stay on as head coach until 2011 - which leaves Steve Hansen in a very delicate position. Regardless of the results in 2011, a coaching succession plan from Henry to Hansen could be seen as nepotism due to their long association and a new NZRU board, the public and players will be craving for change. Dingo Deans back to cuzzie bro anyone? Some promising players on the fringe in 2008 to step up and announce themselves as players of real talent, conversely some well known names to be pegged back in the pecking order of national selection. I expect the economic climate to force the NZRU's hand in restructuring the Air NZ NPC competition both in numbers as well as it's operation as a professional competition post 2009 season. I expect viewing figures and Kiwi crowd attendances for Super 14 to be the same if not less than 2008's figures which should be of major concern to the NZRU and Sky television given the prominence rugby enjoys in NZ. The dominance of the competition by the Crusaders while marvellous for the franchise, has also made it too predictable and repetitive. There needs to be more uncertainty, upsets and speculation, this may be heresy to many Kiwi's here but the title needs to be won by an Aussie or SA team this year and a few more years afterwards to generate more passion amongst us, we'd never get the crowd scenes in NZ we witnessed when the Bulls and the Sharks marched to the final in 2007 and that's what this competition needs - some fresh blood. Finally I expect Carl Hayman to announce his return to NZ at the end of the current northern season.

To be fair, most of the World Cup winners have played like world champs and been great sides. It's only the South Africans who haven't done anything of note before or after a WC.

OJ, fair enough about Fitzpatrick. Agree, Richie ought to be proud. But since "greatness" is an entirely subjective term I guess we'll have to disagree about what winning the World Cup would mean to him and his legacy. I've never said being an All Black was about anything less than wearing the jersey and playing for your country. I don't second guess the relative merits of winning the various world cups. Maybe SA did catch a break in 07, but for whatever reason each on of the last five world cups have been too hard for us to win. The side that wins it should be considered great because that is a great achievement. Winning the World Cup does mean s-t, that's the reason every rugby playing nation on earth pours its resources into doing well at it. I said earlier on in this thread that ABs supporters are harder on their team than anyone else will ever be. You're living proof of that OJ!

Well, y'know Keith, every side needs its everest. It took a long time for the All Blacks to win a series in South Africa or claim a Grand Slam over the home nations, and now it'll be more than a quarter of a century since we won a WC, but there's two things I always keep in mind: 1. What would it be like if NZ had won 3 or 4 WCs? 2. The history of the rugby WC is relatively short

Fitzpatrick didn't win the WC as captain, so I think that's a little misleading. He really cemented his legacy as an All Black great with those '96-'97 seasons. I don't think winning a WC will make or break Richie McCaw's career. Being an All Black is about wearing the jersey and playing for your country. Richie ought to be proud of what he's accomplished as an All Black. The WC doesn't mean s--t if you don't play like world champs. The Tri-Nations is easier to win than the World Cup. In the Tri-Nations you can drop a couple of games, hell NZ has racked up the titles on the basis of splitting away games and winning at home. Nevertheless, knock-out tournaments often turn pear shaped. South Africa caught a break in '07, New Zealand would've been the same in '99 and 2003. Imagine being world champs in the earlier part of the decade and losing to the Aussies so much. It's OK if it's the Kiwis, but the All Blacks? Anyway, I'm sure the All Blacks will win a WC again some day. Perhaps it won't be a great side. It might be a lesser side without as much expectation on them, but (to me) it will either be the final act of a great side or the beginning of expectations that they'll become a great side.

Yes, it did take us a while to win a series in SA - 75 years. But despite the time frame we didn't find it harder to do than win a World Cup. We lost five tours before finally turning them over in 1996. That's a series record in SA of 1 and 5, the exact same as our World Cup record. I remember when we cracked the WC egg the first try. I was sitting in the Eden Park terraces at the final thinking "sweet, that was easy!"

Winning a series in SA was an egg that took longer to crack. We cracked the WC egg first try.

In the whole history of the All Blacks, there is no other egg that we have found so difficult to crack. That alone would qualify a World Cup winning ABs side for greatness. Like it or not, there is a crop of current All Blacks who will be defined and remembered by their efforts in 2011. Richie McCaw in particular has a fantastic winning record as captain, but people won't mention him in the same breath as Sean Fitzpatrick till he wins a world cup. Some would argue that it's harder to win the Tri Nations than the World Cup because you have to repeatedly play and beat only high ranked teams. If the World Cup was such an easy tournament to win what's with this bad habit we've got of being kickout out of it? Maybe we shouldn't have been considered the favourites in 1999 (especially given the abysmal 1998 tri nations). But could we have won? Yep. Did we freeze in the headlights against France in that semi final? Yep. Is coolness under pressure a mark of greatness? Yep. Has this generation of ABs got much left to achieve? Nope.

I wouldn't classify a side as great just because they won a World Cup.

Ohtani's jacket - you wanna see a great ABs side lift the cup? The act of lifting the cup would be part of their greatness. If the 2011 ABs do it, the fact that they suceeded where the five previous campaigns failed would make them great. Seriously, what other major piece of silverware has eluded us so long? I don't care if they crush all opposition for years before winning the cup. Hell, I don't care if they all grow salt and pepper beards and sing The Gambler instead of doing the haka. Give me a World Cup.

The John Hart story would've been better if it had a Godfather twist.

Keith, I wanna see a great All Blacks side lift the Cup, not some average side that won the Tri-Nations in a World Cup year. How we even got tagged favourites in '99 and 2003, I'll never know.

You're right Nick_KIA - that's just cruel and unusual.

John Mitchell also had to move to Perth... what a shocker!

"John Hart - lost his job and his horse was booed in a trotting race." It's a little known fact that he was also forced to wait in the long queue at Big Fresh even though he only had 10 items :)

Craig - the IRB figures are notoriously innacurate. The ARU's annual report shows the registered player figure at around 160k for Aus. Some myth indeed. Suzie is a joke even in NZ. No-one but Laurie Mains actually believes she exists - while it's a fact that players were sick most people believe it was accidental. The only "scapegoat" blamed for any of the WC exits is Wayne Barnes and I think any impartial view of that game would say he was poor - but even then the public does place blame on the players and coaches (did you happen to miss the uproar when Graham Henry was reappointed?). John Mitchell - lost his job. Reuben Thorne - dropped. John Hart - lost his job and his horse was booed in a trotting race. Taine Randell - dumped as captain. Hmm - seems your statement that the players and coaches aren't held responsible is not really accurate.