The Super 14 kicks off next week with a huge question mark hovering over the tournament: Can the Crusade continue?
Will the all-dominant Crusaders continue their amazing success in the world’s strongest provincial rugby competition without super-coach Robbie Deans at the helm?
The answer, according to the man himself, is of course they can.
But even the most hard-core, parochial Cantabrians have serious doubts.
It will be the first time since 1996, the inaugural Super rugby season, the Christchurch-based franchise won’t have Deans on board.
Five of their seven titles, including last year’s sweet final success over the NSW Waratahs, have come with the current Wallabies mentor in charge.
The other two was when he was a key assistant to Wayne Smith.
Not only will the Crusaders miss the man who enjoyed a God-like status in the South Island, but they will also be without playmaker Daniel Carter, who is on a French sojourn although has suffered an Achilles injury.
The absences have left favouritism for the 2009 title wide open, and has given the four Australian teams renewed hope of a first local championship since the Brumbies’ 2004 triumph.
Deans believes all four – NSW, Queensland, the Brumbies and the Western Force – are all capable of making the top four in the cut-throat 16-week competition for a play-off berth.
He sees the Wellington-based Hurricanes and Durban-based Sharks, both listed as joint $6 second favourites with betting agencies, as the biggest hurdles … as well as the Crusaders ($4.50).
Deans has been replaced by his former captain and lock Todd Blackadder, who he firmly expects will continue to steer the good ship Crusader on the right track, even without Carter, the world’s best five-eighth.
“The Crusaders will be thereabouts, no doubt,” he said.
“They’ve just got too much not to be, and some (winning) habits. And they’re well supported, they’ve got a good coaching mix there.
“They’ve done it previously (without Carter). He was out for six-seven rounds last year. The year before he wasn’t involved because of the (All Blacks World Cup) conditioning and it wasn’t an issue.”
Players like flanker Kieran Reid and Carter’s understudy Stephen Brett are sure to step up and unheralded youngsters emerge.
Even though the Waratahs have lost the nucleus of their pack with Rocky Elsom and Dan Vickerman in the UK, and Matt Dunning and Wycliff Palu injured, they will start as Australia’s biggest hopes.
Deans believes NSW have the hunger and experience after a tight 2008 final loss, but they need a host of younger forwards to take up the slack and No.10 Kurtley Beale to eradicate the dicey parts of his game.
Beale showed encouraging signs to the Tahs faithful in their final warm-up, a 17-14 win over the Brumbies.
Many pundits are foreshadowing a revival in Canberra with new coach Andy Friend bringing a freshness to a Brumbies squad which stalled under Laurie Fisher.
Stirling Mortlock has handed the captaincy to No.8 Stephen Hoiles and has also moved in closer to the action at inside centre to allow Adam Ashley-Cooper to play in his preferred No.13 jersey.
Wallabies hooker Stephen Moore, now rated among the world’s best rakes, is a key signing from Queensland.
The Reds have a young squad full of raw talent, and lacking the psychological scars of the 2007 Eddie Jones disaster, which reminds Deans of the 1997 Crusaders.
Coach Phil Mooney has had enough of brave losses after an improved 2008 and believes the likes of former All Black Daniel Braid and rising Wallabies Berrick Barnes and Hugh McMeniman can provide the leadership for a turnaround.
“They’re on the ascent of the climb,” Deans said. “They know they have capability.
“It’s just a matter of time.
“The Crusaders went from last in `96 to sixth in `97 and then won three in a row. Things happen quickly.”
The Reds go into a two-match South African baptism of fire with a heartening 22-19 comeback trial win over the Western Force, the Australian franchise with most worries.
The Perth-based team look the goods on paper, particularly with Matt Giteau calling the shots, probably for the last time before a return to Canberra, but must overcome frosty relations between coach John Mitchell and his players and Force staff.
Rugby WA have set up an independent inquiry into Mitchell’s methods with a report to be handed down this month, but Force skipper Nathan Sharpe feels they’ve already been galvanised by the controversy.
The question of which Australian team will emerge as the country’s prime contender “doesn’t concern” Deans, who believes intense interstate rivalries have had their day.
“What I’d really like to see is to see less internal competition and more external competition,” he said.
“Historically the (Australian) teams have got up and got excited about playing each other in the confines of Australia.
“I’d like to see them get up and get excited about playing teams outside of Australia and the rest will look after itself.”
OldManEmu
Guest
I have made the point elsewhere and at the risk of being boring, I'll make it again becasue no -one else is saying it. Watch Scott Fava this season. He, IMHO, could be a big X Factor for the Waratahs. Not far from the Blowhole (a reference to a tourist attraction at Scotty's home town), and with something to prove and not long left to prove it before a Northern Superannuation sojourn beckons. He is tough, quick, good ball runner, good defender, great bloke - I think he'll be a big influence on the younger Tahs.
LeftArmSpinner
Roar Guru
I agree that the Tahs are hungry, really hungry. In particular those young forwards. With Foley as forwards coach, they have a proven coach, a continuity of coach and technique for Baxter, Freier, TPN, Mumm, Waugh, Palu and Robinson. The youngsters in the forwards also know that a good performance cam put them in the Wallabies frame. Here, I refer to Caldwell and Thompson, Mowen and Dennis, Fitzpatrick, Tilse and Palmer in particular. Watch Fitzpatrick pass both TPN and Freier in the pecking order this season. Like TPN, Fitzpatrick is a former flanker, very quick around the field and has put on plenty of upper body mass. He, unlike TPN, can throw accurately. Fitzpatrick is a leader of men. Against the Brumbies this week, the Tahs packs, both the first half and the second string, outplayed their opponents. The key ingredient was physical commitment and passion. Give me this over big names every time. Vicks and Rocky are genuine losses but it is not the end of the world. Lyons and Dunning had been transitioned down to the benchies anyway. Kepu was a benchie but on the way up. He is a loss but will be back this season just as the comp takes its toll. Beale has experienced the first set back in his young, but, illustrious career. Since first lacing a boot on, he has been feted by both codes and all concerned. A quick transition to S14, a good season in 2008 and then, Kerpow, a combination of injury and lack of discipline (putting on weight while in rehab) and he misses the Wallabies tour and, worst of all, his understudy, Cooper, goes from confused pivot to Wallabies match winner and saviour. Beale looks as sharp as ever and, with all the skills, and some great players who also understand how to play off him, he will lead the Tahs backs to plenty of tries. Beale is at his best when players around him understand where to be. Tahu and SNK did this beautifully on thursday evening, presenting Mortlock with a two on one. Mortlock couldnt deal with it, Tahu went thro untouched and Horne finished it off. Simple, clinical and beautiful. Sadly, Tuqiri, while more involved, has not developed or maintained the real speed needed at this level. He is still, yes, still, cutting back inside. I was hoping that he would be red carded and suspended for the first few rounds so that Carraro or Playford could get a chance. Sadly, Playford also showed that he couldnt catch Liliafano from behind over 40 metres, despite only giving him 1 metre's headstart.