In a season that promised so much, Adelaide United is on the cusp of finishing it completely empty handed. Should Adelaide lose to Melbourne on Saturday night, its title aspirations appear almost gone.
And while coach Aurelio Vidmar has been rightfully credited for the Reds’ accomplished run to the Asian Champions League final, he must also hold up his hands for his side’s potential domestic failing.
It all boils down to Vidmar’s formation: a stringently adhered-to 4-5-1.
Effective as the system had largely been in the ACL campaign, the tactic had become mundanely predictable by the business end of the A-League home-and-away season.
The only surprise Vidmar served up prior to the first semi-final leg on last Saturday was the installation of marquee Paul Agostino (in place of leading scorer Cristiano) at the apex of the formation.
Conversely, opposition coach Ernie Merrick kept the media and supporters guessing almost right up to kick-off.
His decision to stick with the same side that defeated Wellington on January 23 was, as it turned out, the right one.
There had been speculation he was going to start striker Ney Fabiano ahead of midfield playmaker Carlos Hernandez.
Merrick’s choice was an inspired one.
Adelaide was completely bossed out of the game for a good part of 70 minutes.
Vidmar spoke before the game of Agostino’s ability to play with his back to goal, presumably to bring the likes of Travis Dodd, Lucas Pantelis and Kristian Sarkies into the match.
Starting just his sixth A-League game of the season, we never got to see Agostino’s talents as his teammates instead attempted to dink balls over the defence.
Victory was able to deal with the balls comfortably, before counter attacking with devastating effect.
Adelaide fans, regardless of their overall opinion of Vidmar, must have cursed their manager’s decision to stay conservative
The choice was made all the more baffling given Adelaide was at home in the first leg, safe in the knowledge that it needed goals to set up a competitive second leg at Melbourne’s stronghold, the Telstra Dome.
Thus, it has created a Mission: Impossible of sorts for United this Saturday night. Adelaide need goals, but it’s is hard to see where it will get them from.
Out of desperation, Vidmar may even throw caution to the wind and change his beloved system.
But he’ll still have to get past opposite number Merrick and a two-goal buffer.
The Melbourne coach’s track record at having outwitted his Adelaide equivalent is a weighty one.
Since the 2006/07 season, the Victory has prevailed in eight of 13 encounters. This season, Merrick has engineered four wins in four matches against the Reds.
The form of his enigmatic Costa Rican Hernandez has led to a call-up for his national side, and he will return to Melbourne just 24 hours before the second leg of the semi final.
Hardly a pillar of physical fitness anyway, Hernandez would be highly unlikely to be involved from the start on Saturday night.
But having sparked his team in the first leg, he may have already done enough to thwart Vidmar’s title ambitions.
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