It was another week of Super 14 tipping horror, as four teams won away from home. It also continues the run of close matches, with fifteen of the 21 matches played so far being decided by less than seven points.
In terms of Tries Scored, the Bulls lead the way, but are chased by six teams that have scored nine.
Blues: 9, Brumbies: 9, Bulls: 12, Cheetahs: 4, Chiefs: 5, Crusaders: 9, Highlanders: 8, Hurricanes: 9, Lions: 3, Reds: 9, Sharks: 8, Stormers: 6, Waratahs: 9, Western Force: 8
Penalties per team continues to drop, no doubt due somewhat to the implementation of the EVL’s and free kicks. So far the Hurricanes are the holy team of the competition, conceding less than 3 penalties per match.
Blues: 11, Brumbies: 9, Bulls: 15, Cheetahs: 22, Chiefs: 16, Crusaders: 15, Highlanders: 13, Hurricanes: 8, Lions: 19, Reds: 15, Sharks: 18, Stormers: 16, Waratahs: 14, Western Force: 21
However, free kicks conceded per team, shows a willingness by the alleged “top referees” on the controversial non neutral panel to ping teams via free kicks, with most teams conceding close to ten such stoppages per game.
Blues: 28, Brumbies: 28, Bulls: 31, Cheetahs: 22, Chiefs: 19, Crusaders: 30, Highlanders: 32, Hurricanes: 21, Lions: 29, Reds: 16, Sharks: 29, Stormers: 25, Waratahs: 30, Western Force: 35
Hurricanes vs Crusaders, 30-24
This was only the second time the Hurricanes have beaten Crusaders at home, the first time was in 2001.
This continues a trend of the Crusaders (7 time champions) having very different year to year results. In 2000 they won the title, but then slumped to tenth in 2001, before coming back to win the Super title again in 2002.
In 2007 Canterbury recorded their second worst start going 1 win 2 losses in the first three weeks, before coming back in 2008 to go the first nine weeks unbeaten before winning the title. This year they have made the same start as 2007.
Waratahs vs Highlanders, 34-16
The Waratahs win was their ninth consecutive win at home. This is still a while away to match the tournament record, currently held by Canterbury (2004/07) with 26 wins followed by Auckland (1996/98) at 20 wins.
It was the Otago based franchises first loss in three matches at Sydney football stadium.
Sharks vs Chiefs, 22-15
After another traditional slow start, the Chiefs are still not on a par with their 2007 performance, where they went the first five weeks without a win.
The Sharks as both a Super 14 and Currie Cup team are currently on a 15 match winning streak. In 2008 the franchise went the first nine weeks of the competition unbeaten.
Western Force vs Brumbies, 25-16
The win was the first win by the Force in Canberra, and the first time they have beaten an Australian side away from home.
It was only the Brumbies second loss at home to an Australian team in Super rugby history.
Bulls vs Lions, 16-9
Morne Steyn leads the Super 14 with points scored, having registered 44 points. Likewise Bulls number eight Pierre Spies is co leader for most tries scored (4). The Bulls now head the table with the Waratahs but boast a healthy +53 points aggregate.
Andre Pretorius scored six points to take his Super rugby points tally to 556, making him the highest South African points scorer taking over from the Stormers Louis Kuhn.
Blues vs Stormers, 14-8
This continues the Auckland based franchises excellent record against the Stormers, losing just once in Cape Town.
This was the second loss in three games at Cape Town, last year the lost their first two at their alleged rugby fortress.
Reds vs Cheetahs, 22-3
The Cheetahs terrible record in Australasia continues. They have never won away from home.
While the Reds win was actually their first win since beating the Force at home in April of last year. After that match they suffered three losses in a row to end their home record.
OldManEmu
Guest
I dont accept the Tahs are undisciplined. Certainly they are conceding a lot of frees but perhaps this is just plain clever given that the referees seem determined, so far, not to yellow card repeat infringements at the tackle. OJ I agree - this is a weaker S14 than usual andI attribute this in part to the player drain in NZ that must, despite the enormity of depth and development systems in the land of the long flat vowel, be having an effect. I do not suggest mind you this will be phenomena beyond the short term. To me the Reds, Brumbies and Force are just flat out mediocre all with significant weaknesses. The fact that the Brumbies and the Force appear to be competitive speaks volumes. The Lions v Cheetahs game in the opening round was abject. Juan Smith was by such a long margin the dominant player that it was embarassing. Todd Clever, a USA player came on in the second half and made an immediate positive impact. This points to an absolute absence of quality. So I do believe this years S14 is weak, but I do not think this is suggestive of anything other than a short term situation.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Judging by comments on the Roar, every Super 14 side has an "outside" shot of making the semis. Am I the only one who thinks the parity in this year's compeititon is a result of all the teams being average?
Spiro Zavos
Expert
James your statistics will hopefully improve my terrible tipping record this year on The Roar. I've found them fascinating. Congratuiations on putting them together. One of the difficulties I've been having, and I presume others are having too, is factoring in the influence of non-neutral referees. So far local Australian sides being refereed by Australians have won all their matches. But New Zealand and South African teams, with a local referee, have lost matches. There is no suggestion here of bias and so on but how long will the Australian connection work for Australian sides? My feeling is that the competition this season is far more even than in previous years. Most of the teams can beat each other on the day. This is making tipping a nightmare but the tournament itself most enjoyable, despite the fact that the Waratahs are winning in a restricted style that surely can't last much longer.
Who Needs Melon
Guest
I only tipped 4 out 7 correctly last weekend but was pretty confident and 7 from 7 the week before. Not as good as you LAS. :) This weekend I think the only 'sure things' are the Canes over the Cheetahs. I know the Bulls are widely tipped to romp over the Stormers but I really think it could go either way. I use inverted commas for sure thing because I thought the Brumbies were a sure thing over the Foce last weekend. So I agree I think this is the closest Super 14 yet. And I think the fact that you haven't received many comments no this topic is indicative of the fact there's not much to argue about on this.
James Mortimer
Guest
Congrats on your tips then LAS. My old man is in a tipping competition in the Super 14, and over 200 people are sitting on three consecutive perfect rounds. How is that possible. I'd have to agree with Sam that only the Cheetahs and Highlanders are out of it. I was at Suncorp for the Reds/Che game and Juan Smiths team played quite possibly the most atrocious rugby I had ever seen. However, after three rounds I will openly state that the Reds are now out of it. Their high risk high tempo game is certainly attractive, and while I kudos Mooney for the style - better teams (reds still to play a NZ team for example) and NSW will not be challenged by a team that plays the rugby union style of the NRL Warriors team. I think the Chiefs are a genuine danger team. They will be getting desperate already, despite losing to three blue chip teams. But without injuries they field a Muliaina, Sivivatu, Kahui, Donald, Leonard, Lauaki, Messam, Latimer line up that will still win more games that they lose. I pick the Force to come back to earth with a sickening thud this week against them. I completely agree regarding the cards situation. I don't think Ref's are uttering the mantra "yellow will stop constant infringement". I think they only see a yellow as a terrible infringement (such as a shocking tackle). In reference to the Tahs, they should have recieved a yellow in their first match against the Canes. I watched the replay of the Blues Stormers game yesterday, and I watched the ref hand out free kick after free kick to both teams when the other was within the opposition 22. Not once did he warn, or even shift to full penalties. Not to harp on a old tune, but I really to shudder to think what these guys are told by the IRB....
Sam Taulelei
Guest
Oops I should have qualified my sentence in saying they lost to the teams that finished 1st, 2nd and 3rd from last years competition.
Sam Taulelei
Guest
LAS I'd agree that the Cheetahs and Highlanders are probably out of the running and not just because they haven't won a game yet but also because overall they lack the strengths to win consistently. I'm not ruling the Chiefs out yet though. So far they have lost to the teams that finished 1st (Crusaders), 2nd (Waratahs) and 3rd (Sharks) and finished within 7 points in each of them and could well have won all of them. They're not that far off the pace and I suspect that the Force will bear the brunt of what this team is capable of this weekend. The Bulls had a similar horror start to their 2007 campaign and the Crusaders in 2004 started with back to back losses and suffered a couple more but still made the playoffs and the final so teams can still qualify even after early round defeats. Teams like the Tahs and Blues have made dream starts to their campaigns but then falter at the business end and either miss our altogether or are knocked out early. It wouldn't be much of a competition if after three rounds three teams are completely out of the running but realistically the Highlanders and Cheetahs appear to be offering odds as occasional upset winners at this stage. Good luck with your tipping.
pothale
Guest
Interesting stats James. And I must be reading these wrong. LAS talks about 10 free kicks per game per team. And says that one every 4 minutes. And that the Tahs are quite undisciplined. Am I right in thinking that if you add the free kicks and the penalties together, you'd get a total of what would equate to full penalties under global trial laws? Or are some of them applicable to S14 and the rest of the world? Thus the total picture for penalties/error count is: Blues: 11+ 28 = 39 = 13 per game Brumbies 9 + 28 = 37 = 12.5 per game Bulls: 15 + 31 = 46 = 15 per game Cheetahs: 22 + 22 = 44 = 15 per game Chiefs: 16 + 19 = 35 = 12 per game Crusaders: 15 + 30 = 45= 15 per game Highlanders: 13 + 32= 45 = 15 per game Hurricanes: 8 + 21= 29= 9.1 per game Lions: 19 + 29= 48= 15.3 per game Reds: 15 + 16= 31 = 10 per game Sharks: 18 + 29 = 47 = 15.2 per game Stormers: 16 + 25 = 41= 13.1 per game Waratahs: 14 + 30 = 44 = 15 per game Western Force: 21 + 35 = 56 = 18.1 per game Those figures are stunning. The Hurricanes with the best record have one yellow card only. The worst record with the Force received no yellow cards despite being in England territory with double the amount of penalties compared to the Canes. I thought repeated infringing would result in at least full-arm penalties, whatever about yellow cards. No wonder tries are being scored with such regularity, if teams like the Force are getting away with murder. Maybe I've missed something.
LeftArmSpinner
Roar Guru
James, "Another week of tipping horror", well, and not being one to boast, not for me or the comp that I'm in. I'm 18 from 21 along with 25% of our comp. Anyway, to more important things, Tahs are quite undisciplined and this could come back to haunt them. 10 free kicks per game per team, or one every 4 minutes is too many. We need more Yellows. so far there have been Blues 0, Brumbies 0, Bulls 2, Cheetahs 3, Chiefs 0, Crusaders 1, Highlanders and Canes 1, Lions 2, Reds 1, Sharks 1, Stormers 0, Waratahs 0 and Force 0. So 12 in 21 games or 1/4 per team per game. Hardly effective when there has been a free kick every 4 minutes. I agree with the premise that the games are close and any one of 11 teams can challenge for the 2009 title. The Chiefs, Highlanders and Cheetahs are probably out of it and playing for pride only.