Springboks favoured to beat the All Blacks but ...

New Zealand All Blacks’ Jerome Kaino, left, is tackled by South Africa’s Bryan Habana during their international rugby test at Westpac Stadium, in Wellington, New Zealand, Saturday, July 5, 2008. AP Photo/NZPA, Ross Setford

The bookmakers, whose livelihood depends on getting matters like this right, have made the Springboks favourites to win the 2009 Tri-Nations tournament.

The basis for this confidence is the form shown by the Springboks in defeating the British and Irish Lions, the current strength of South African rugby with the Bulls brilliantly defeating the Chiefs in the Super 14 final, and the favorable draw the Springboks have with their first three matches played in Fortress South Africa.

If you read the South African  media and the sports websites, you’ll find that this sentiment by the bookmakers is totally endorsed by the South African rugby community. This community is so unimpressed by the All Blacks-Wallabies Test that the conventional wisdom in South Africa is that the tournament is over already – with the Springboks being certainties to win their third Tri-Nations title.

History supports this scenario, too.

In 2001, the Brumbies won the Super Rugby tournament, and the Wallabies defeated the Lions and won the Tri-Nations. In 2005, the Crusaders won the Super Rugby tournament, and the All Blacks defeated the Lions and won the Tri-Nations. In 2009, South African rugby has gained two legs of the trifecta, with the Bulls winning the Super Rugby tournament and the Springboks defeating the Lions.

Many South African commentators, too, are insisting that this present Springboks side, with a Rugby World Cup Cup and a Lions head in the trophy cabinet) may be one the best, if not the best, the great rugby nation South Africa has ever produced.

It is certainly a side with few weaknesses.

The forwards are tough (sometimes overly so), fast (has there been a quicker number 8 than Pierre Spies? Hennie Muller, the greyhound of the veld, perhaps), with the best lineout in world rugby, the best halfback in the world (Fourie du Preez) and terrific finishing and defending wingers in Bryan Habana and J.P. Pietersen.

The only weakness is at first five-eights.

Rian Pienaar, a gifted rugby player hasn’t made the transition from halfback yet and his goal-kicking is shaky. Morne Steyn is a nerveless goal-kicker of great power and accuracy.

His playmaking, though, is more stilted than that of Stephen Donald.

While the history of the Lions tours and home side victories is on the side of the Springboks, the fact is that the side has underperformed in the Tri-Nations tournament.

Despite the fact of Fortress South Africa, the Springboks have won only 21 of the their 56 Tri-Nations matches, with one draw. The Wallabies have won 23 of their 57 matches, with one draw. The All Blacks have won 40 of their 57 matches.

This brings us to Saturday’s Test between South Africa and New Zealand at Bloemfontein.

The All Blacks have to get over a tough Test at Auckland and acclimatise to the altitude of Bloemfontein in a week. This is a very hard ask, particularly as the Springboks have been able to get their energy levels back up after the Lions series.

The All Blacks coach, Graham Henry, says he is preparing for the two Tests in South Africa as a series. Well, since New Zealand first toured South Africa in 1928, it has only won one series, in 1996.

The All Blacks back coach Wayne Smith is talking about how the team has to ‘refine its game plan’ to play the Springboks. He is hinting that the kicking game that was used so effectively against the Wallabies might be changed or adjusted to take into account the great strength of the Springboks lineout: “there’s nothing in the laws to say you have to kick.”

This suggests to me that the All Blacks might try to replicate the ball-in-hand game the Lions played so successfully against the Springboks in the third Test.

Aside from their great record in the Tri-Nations, with 9 victories out of 13 tournaments and the last four in a row, two other factors come into play for the All Blacks and the Wallabies as far as the Springboks are concerned.

First, Peter de Villiers, the Springboks coach, is nowhere near the class of Henry or Robbie Deans, or for that matter Jake White, the creator of the World Cup-winning team.

Second, Peter Bills, a well-informed rugby writer for The Independent (UK) makes this point in a recent article: “A number of pundits have suggested that the world champions are on the brink of unravelling into disarray, and the fact that so many players have been linked to moves to overseas clubs adds weight to this argument.”

This is why I humbly suggest (with great fear that Springbok supporters will tear me to bits for even so much as doubting the inevitability of a South African triumph) that the Springboks are favoured to beat the All Blacks and the Wallabies in the Tri-Nations, but …