Brad Sewell of Hawthorn in action during the AFL ANZAC Day Round 05 match between the Hawthorn Hawks and the West Coast Eagles at Aurora Stadium. Slattery Images
As impressive as Hawthorn’s win over Collingwood last week was, you can’t help but feel the reigning Premier has left its run too late. The win made it two in a row for the Hawks, and it has left some believing they could be a dangerous sleeper in this year’s finals series.
We shouldn’t buy that.
Hawthorn was superb in achieving a premiership-winning season last year. But this year, despite their recent form, the Hawks will be lucky to make the finals – let along play a significant part in them.
Hawthorn’s Round 22 clash with Essendon could determine its fate this season.
Causing a shake-up in the finals from eighth position is a tall order – and an unrealistic one.
Given the way today’s finals system is structured, teams must make the top-four to have a shot at glory – there is simply too much to do for those in the bottom-half of the top-eight.
The Hawks’ run home includes a clash with rival Geelong this weekend, and matches with Port Adelaide (in Adelaide), St.Kilda and Adelaide, along with Richmond and the Bombers.
None of those are guaranteed wins and the Hawks need four of those to simply make the final eight.
The Hawks have suffered from a number of injuries this season, along with the below-par form of many senior players.
As a result, they have struggled for symmetry and an unstable team is unlikely to have success.
A late-season win over Collingwood should not be used to justify a finals’ pulse at Glenferrie Oval. If the Hawks defeat the Cats this weekend, they will send a real scare through the competition.
Even an event of that magnitude would leave the Hawks with plenty to do. Is there enough time for the reigning premier to regain their mojo and win four of their last six?
Only time will tell, but I suspect time will run out.
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