Preview of AFL finals, week one (all times local).
FRIDAY
First Elimination Final – ADELAIDE v ESSENDON at AAMI Stadium, 7.45pm
Head to head: Adelaide 12, Essendon 15, Drawn 0
Head to head in finals: Adelaide 0, Essendon 1, Drawn 0
Last time: Adelaide 21.4 (130) bt Essendon 18.6 (114) R11 2009, Etihad
TAB Sportsbet: Adelaide $1.09, Essendon $7.00
Sportingbet: Adelaide $1.12, Essendon $6.50
The Bombers were always going to be long shots in this match – their first final in five years and on enemy turf at AAMI Stadium. But Mission Improbable became Mission Near-Impossible when the match review panel suspended skipper Matthew Lloyd, ruckman Paddy Ryder and midfielder Sam Lonergan for their roles in the spiteful round 22 win over Hawthorn. The Crows’ build-up has not been trouble-free either, with midfielder Nathan van Berlo and key defender Nathan Bock ruled out after failing to complete the final training session on Thursday. Adelaide coach Neil Craig will be desperate to improve on a record of only two wins from seven finals under his reign.
Key: Kurt Tippett, Jason Porplyzia, Chris Knights, Brett Burton – kicking goals is no longer the Crows’ Achilles heel. As they also appear to hold the advantage in the midfield and in defence, it’s hard to make a case for the Bombers getting all that close.
Tip: Adelaide by 40 points.
SATURDAY
Second Qualifying Final – GEELONG V WESTERN BULLDOGS at MCG, 2.30pm
Head to head: Geelong 90, Western Bulldogs 55, Drawn 2
Head to head in finals: Geelong 7, Western Bulldogs 2, Drawn 0
Last time: Western Bulldogs 16.14 (110) bt Geelong 14.12 (96) R21 2009, MCG
TAB Sportsbet: Geelong $1.80, Western Bulldogs $1.95
Sportingbet: Geelong $1.88, Western Bulldogs $1.95
The Bulldogs’ form-line going into the first week of September action could hardly be better, with victories over fellow finalists Brisbane, Geelong and Collingwood in the last three weeks. And they will be strengthened still further by the return of No.1 ruckman Ben Hudson and powerhouse onballer Ryan Griffen. Geelong have also welcomed back their best ruckman in Brad Ottens and a key midfielder in James Kelly in the last week but they still have more injury concerns than the Dogs.
Key: With a full list to pick from, the Dogs will never get a better chance to take the direct route to the preliminary finals.
Tip: Bulldogs by 10 points.
Second Elimination Final – BRISBANE LIONS V CARLTON at Gabba, 7.30pm
Head to head: Brisbane 14, Carlton 22, Drawn 0
Head to head in finals: Brisbane 2, Carlton 2, Drawn 0
Last time: Carlton 16.16 (112) bt Brisbane 16.10 (106) R11 2009, Gabba
Centrebet: Brisbane $1.95, Carlton $1.80
Sportingbet: Brisbane $2.00, Carlton $1.84
Having reached the finals for the first time in five years, injuries have hit the Lions at the worst possible time. The picture won’t really be clear until the team runs out onto the ground on Saturday evening, although impressive first-year coach Michael Voss figures that key position players Daniel Merrett and Daniel Bradshaw are better chances to play than Brownlow medallist Simon Black and rebounding defender Josh Drummond. But the uncertainty means the Blues are likely to start as favourites in their first final in eight long years, even though the match is taking place nearly 2,000km from home.
Key: The Blues midfielders were understandably unhappy to be labelled downhill skiers last weekend by former Richmond coach Terry Wallace. There’s no better time to prove him wrong. If indeed he was wrong.
Tip: Brisbane by six points.
SUNDAY
First Qualifying Final – ST KILDA V COLLINGWOOD at MCG, 2.40pm
Head to head: St Kilda 55, Collingwood 149, Drawn 1
Head to head in finals: St Kilda 5, Collingwood 3, Drawn 0
Last time: St Kilda 20.8 (128) bt Collingwood 5.10 (40) R7 2009, Etihad
TAB Sportsbet: St Kilda $1.68, Collingwood $2.15
Centrebet: St Kilda $1.67, Collingwood $2.25
On reflection, it’s hardly surprising that the Saints finally dropped a couple of meaningless matches in August. After putting together a record 20-game winning streak, they have effectively been biding their time waiting for the finals to start for the best part of two months. Well, that time has arrived. Neither side has any major injury concerns, although the Saints would love to be able to call on the services of their best ruckman Michael Gardiner. His Collingwood counterpart Josh Fraser says the current Magpies squad is superior to the Nathan Buckley-led outfits which lost the 2002 and 2003 grand finals to Brisbane.
Key: Kicking a winning score against Ross Lyon’s suffocating Saints has proved beyond the powers of nearly every side in the competition this year. Can the Magpies break the mould?
Tip: St Kilda by 15 points.
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