I must admit that I’ve enjoyed the past few weeks, watching the Springboks become the Wallabies’ problem, safe in the knowledge that the Bledisloe is retained for another year. But it’s back to reality as the All Blacks prepare to face the Springboks on home soil.
Ideally the Springboks would’ve liked to have clinched the Tri-Nations before stepping foot on New Zealand soil, and perhaps even rested some players, but taking the title from the All Blacks in New Zealand, and inflicting a further home loss on them, has be the stuff that Bok dreams are made of.
For the record, I don’t think the All Blacks can win the Tri-Nations.
The last time they scored four tries in a Test was in a pick-up game against the Scots and they’ve only managed four tries in their past four Tests.
Considering that the All Blacks are averaging 23 points in the past two Tri-Nations (to the opposition’s 20 points), and have scored 19 points in their past three games, they’d have to hold the Boks to zero or three points to make any sort of inroads on the points differential.
Still, the Boks won’t want to leave their fate in the Wallabies’ hands.
I expect the Springboks to revert to their kick and chase game in Hamilton. If they take control of the game early, and put the All Blacks on the wrong side of referee Nigel Owens, then there’s really no need to spring any surprises.
One area that they may look to attack is the All Black midfield – the great Achilles’ heel of New Zealand rugby.
Henry has been flirting with two options to cover the midfield. One option is to switch Daniel Carter to second five and play Stephen Donald at first five. The other option is to move Mils Muliaina from fullback to centre and play Ma’a Nonu at second five.
Neither option is particularly exciting for All Black fans. The Muliaina option conjures up bad memories from the past, while the Donald option has only worked when Donald was subbed on late and was a failure when they experimented with it as a starting option.
If Henry decides to play Donald, the Boks will surely look to target him as they did in South Africa. Then again, putting pressure on Carter is a favourite trick of the Boks, so it may not make a difference in regards to the Boks’ tactics.
The answer to the midfield selection may lie in the All Blacks’ tactics. Do they try to attack from the outset and run the risk of the Boks counter attacking, or do they try to play it safe and build towards something in the second half?
In any event, I hope they remember the defensive ramifications.
One of the only successful things the Boks did in Brisbane was attack the Wallabies’ midfield channels from set piece ball. You could maybe argue that they attacked from too far out, but they’re bound to have a crack at the All Blacks’ midfield if they get enough attacking oppositions inside the All Blacks’ half.
As for the All Blacks’ game plan, well, it’s relatively simple – copy the Wallabies.
Throw short to the lineout, try to put pressure on the scrum, be smart about the numbers you commit to the breakdown, keep the ball in hand and try to attack from broken play.
Whether the All Blacks can succeed in doing this depends on a number of factors.
There’s as much chance of Owens reffing the way Barnes did as there is of lightening striking the same place twice. Unless the game is particularly open, I fully expect Owens to get involved.
The scrum may be an issue for the Boks or it may not, but the breakdown will invariably favour one team. My advice to the All Blacks would be to take it one ruck at a time.
The Springboks have had a big year and they may be starting to tire in the forwards.
On the other hand, the All Blacks haven’t shown that they can contend with the Springbok pack. The young guys in the All Black pack – Franks, Ross and Read – have been getting through a mountain of work, but not exactly in a dominating fashion.
They may turn out to be quality players in the future, provided New Zealand rugby doesn’t let its standards slip, but for now the Springboks have an overwhelming advantage in experience.
The All Blacks tied up their line outs and catching under the high ball in time for the Sydney Test, but that was three weeks ago, and I expect the Boks to test the All Blacks early and often.
Really, it’s the Boks who hold all the cards, because it’s the All Blacks who need to score.
One thing that’s impressed me about the Boks’ play this season has been the way they dislodge the ball in the tackle. How many try saving tackles have we seen from the Boks this season, and how many outright strips?
The Boks aren’t that great in broken or loose play, but their scrambling cover defence is quite good, and the All Blacks will have to beat them for numbers if they’re to score enough points.
I’m not sure that they can do it to be honest, and I think a better approach would be to try to win the Test regardless of the score line and worry about the winning margin next week.
A bonus point won’t hand the Springboks the trophy, but it will make it extraordinarily difficult for the All Blacks to win by a big enough margin in Wellington.
For that reason, I think you’ll see the Springboks play a conservative game where they look to put pressure on the All Black defence and kick as many penalties as possible. They may attack from good ball, but they’re just as likely to drop back into the pocket, knowing that the All Blacks are about as adept at defending drop goal attempts as they are at taking them.
All told, I’d rather be in South Africa’s position than New Zealand’s, which is why I’m calling this a Bok-check.
Twice the All Blacks were pinned in their own 22 in South Africa and frustrated by their lack of possession. Let’s see if they’ve learnt anything.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Well done Boks. Congratulations to all their supporters. Worthy winners in the Tri-Nations. I thought the All Blacks did the best they could given the circumstances and wasn't so disheartened by the loss. It turned into a fine game.
mother teresa
Guest
yeah ive got no excitement with toeava or rokocoko or thomson;is the latter supposed to be our competitive edge at 60. id hate to be an in form winger at present seeing koko get the spot with weak performances. apart from sivi on other wing who are our edges agst bok;it sure wont be carters kicking versus steyn,as the worlds best lets hope he demonstrates this ability.who picks the ab backline not the same chap who claims to coach it;what a mess. the team lacks vigour,vitality and intensity of past and the backs no liquidity.i hope home soil energises their approach this weekend but im not confident.
van der Merwe
Guest
Ugh. Photon, that was sarcasm directed at Eagle's last two paragraphs. I have no problem whatsoever with Odwa filling in for Pietersen.
Photon
Guest
First of all, I don't see a big difference between what the Wallas did last week and the way the Boks played the previous four. They kicked two penalties and horror of horrors a drop goal. They also scored a opportunist try can you say Jean de Villiers, and a try from set play which was virtually identical to Habana's try in Perth. Yeah they could have scored more, but even those would have come from pressure induced errors as opposed to Wallaby brilliance, I mean Jacobs had the biggest brain fart ever, and as for what possessed Ndungane to leave his wing aah well I guess each to his own. I also think Robbie new the Boks would run it more as soon as they picked Pienar in staed of Steyn, Smit's statement about chasing all five points before the game was also dumb. I believe the best way for the Boks to play is with Steyn for the first Hour or so and to bring on Ruan for the final 20 to 25 minutes. I think Steyn and his big boot brings a safer game and I think Ruan who runs better lines and reads the game better than Steyn can they do his thing as the Boks look to play more expansively. I think the weekend also showed the value of Pietersen and Habana in that they are very adept chasers who know how to apply pressure on catchers as they await the balls return from the heavens, obviously the kicks need to be good and land in and about the 22 metre line which in itself is a skill (So much for the Boks playing a dumb game that doesn’t require any ability). I hope and think the Boks will do the business this weekend, but I think it will be tight, very tight, maybe 2 points. Finally Van der Merwe I’m sorry to be personal but I think all true South Africans are glad when people of your ilk leave this country, all we ever get from you is racist diatribe about how black players are just there caus they are black Good riddance to you, hope you never return. Anyway good luck to the Boks
Cats
Guest
The Springboks can definately pull this off - I am betting on a SPRINGBOK WIN. It will be close, but we will win it. The boys are hungry for the trophy! ...dont undermine the boks...............
Sam Taulelei
Roar Guru
Great post Eagle, really good stuff.
AndyS
Guest
No-one seems to have mentioned it but while the trip to Perth seemingly wasn't a problem, the travel and jetlag to Brisbane were reportedly a killer! According to PdV the physical and mental strain skips a week, so with another two hours time difference to Hamilton they should be damn near dead.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Sadly, I think the ref will play a huge part in the outcome. It's a must-win game for both sides, so they'll probably play conservatively. If the Boks try their kick and chase game and the All Blacks look to get ball retention in the rucks, I imagine there will be a raft of penalties. The way to avoid penalties is through up-tempo attack, but neither side are really capable of it. There's been a lot of talk about penalties in this year's Tri-Nations, but no-one wants to admit that all three backlines are crap. There's a few good players individually, but on the whole this year's back play has been weaker. The backs' defence has been a bigger feature than their attacking skills. Anyway, I still don't like Henry's calculated gamble of playing Thomson instead of a lock. I can't figure out how you get him on the park. Who wants to sub off Thorn or Ross (especially the latter if you're looking to attack.) Richie's not gonna come off. That means Kaino has to move to lock to let Thomson play blindside?
Hammer
Guest
How much of a risk is it really - when the chosen option has been Eaton sitting on the reserves bench anyway .... hardly someone who has set the world alight over recent seasons and was particularly poor when coming in the games in SA ..
van der Merwe
Guest
I'd actually prefer Ndungane the quota over Pienaar (who, at this stage, is pretty clueless and appears disinterested). de Villiers should never have dropped Steyn in the first place.
Mitch O
Guest
Kaino can cover the second row adequately enough at scrum time. As for rucks and mauls there's not much difference between your 6 and your 5 and 4. They have a backup 6 on the bench. Not a major issue.
Eagle
Guest
My reading on reflection of what was wrong with the Boks in Brisbane: 1. Ndungane and Jacobs can't chase like Pietersen and Habana. Few wings do and that has been part of the Bok success. 2. Pienaar is not experienced at fullback, and with Ndungane and Jacobs you have a back three very vulnarable to a kick and chase game, which is what Australia used to counter when Boks did not chase effectively. 3. The Bok loose forwards therefor had to retreat to the breakdown and did not get there timeously or in sufficient numbers. 4. Fourie du Preez was consequently taken out of the game at the ruck without the ball enough times to matter. 5. When the Boks went to maul the Wallabies where allowed to infringe as much as they wanted. It is reported in SA today that PDV says the replacement wings did not chase and they need players who understand chasing in those positions. Obviously to me that made happy reading. (It was also interesting how early in the game Australia started to attack on Ndungane, both running wide to his wing and kicking on him.) So, are the Boks a spent force? No. Thats the simple answer. But (A) they have to find a solution on the back three for both reasons 1 and 2 mentioned above. Plus (B) they need a referee who understands that the maul has been made part of rugby again and who will penalise offside players and players who play the halfback without the ball at ruck time. I would venture that B will take care of itself, although I would think that a quiet conversation with the referee would be something that Peter should actually consider, just to make sure the referee agrees about the bleeding obvious. As far as A is concerned I think this is a bit more difficult. First thing is we should pray that Habana can play 80 mins and secondly Frans Steyn should be at fullback. Who then on the other wing? Probably Pienaar, who has kicked and chased his own kicks many times, quite effectively. But I would not say this with any certainty as the politicians are already threatening PDV in South Africa because he is selecting too few black players. Those blind bats (the politicians) refuse to see how many black people are suddenly walking around the streets wearing Springbok tshirts and jerseys because we are winning.... They have no grasp about how success (of the 7's and the 15's teams) is the greatest catalyst for developing rugby among the 40 million strong black south africans and already is doing. Kids are coming through very nicely all around the provinces at age group level (u19-u21). Each nations has its challenges. So lets just hope we can look forward to a great game of rugby on Saturday.
QC
Guest
Cats in a recent survey on Reunion (NZ version of All out Rugby) the Bledisloe was overwhelmingly valued higher than the Tri-Nations, I'm not saying the 3N is a dead rubber but there is something extra in Trans tasman battles no matter what the sport. Sadly Cat when South Africa were blocked out of international rugby the rest of the world moved on, South Africa while the greatest foe before isolation, no longer hold that position. Australia has firmly taken hold of that mantle. Like I said there is something special about a battle between the ANZACs, the matches have that little bit extra. Whilst the 3N is still a fantastic tournament and I'd love to have the trophy sitting in the cabinet, if I had to choose I would take the Bledisloe no questions asked.
Cats
Guest
....... I doubt it will be a blowout! Hopefull thinking?? Yes, granted the Boks have played extremely tough games over the last couple of months, but I reckon they will stand up to the AB's - it wont be a walk over from either side though - I know the Boks have a HUGE amount of respect for the AB's and will definately not undermine their ability to come full throttle on Saturday after a couple of weeks rest.
Cats
Guest
I sense a tinge of sour grapes in your last paragrph?? How on earth can the Bledisloe be more important than the Tri-Nations trophy? It is obvious you feel "bored" with the Tri-Nations trophy having had it gather dust in the NZ trophy cabinet for so long! I dont think SA have a problem with that sentiment! :)
Cats
Guest
Actually Stash, secretly, the Boks are looking for 5 points. Unlike the Australians its all or nothing. I agree that the AB's cant be underestimated, especially on home ground, but over the last 2 years the Boks have proved that they can play and win away from home - I am betting on a Boklash!! And for the final week of the Tri-Nations I sincerely hope and pray that the AB's give the AA's a bloody good hiding!!
Cats
Guest
The climate wont affect the boks at all - our spring is currently in the 28-32 deg range and our winter this year was between -4 to a high of about 7 deg - so climatising to the weather is not a problem at all, in fact the cooler the better - hopefully no rain forecasted though - just makes it more difficult for everyone!
Ben J
Guest
The Boks were off their game completely and coupled with good pressure play from Australia lost the plot in the second half. They must surely be tired but at this level it is not an excuse. The All Blacks must surely look to up the tempo, if they do that it could be a blowout.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Who cares if they don't aim to kick it out? You need locks for scrums. You need them to defend mauls. You need them in defence and at the breakdown. You need locks.
Mitch O
Guest
The selectors don't make selections on a whim (let's exclude Toeava). Obviously Thompson's stats stack up pretty well against the other options out there. I think the Bok's have fired all their shots and are pretty much doomed this weekend. The one qualifier is Owens who is capable of a suitably erratic reffing display, effectively reducing the game to a stop-start kickfest. As for second row cover; obviously the AB's don't intend to kick it out - ever. Looking forward to more helter skelter running it out rom inside the 22...