Sustained excellence during the home-and-away season does not always translate into finals success. It is a fact which will be staring Geelong in the face as it prepares for this week’s Grand Final.
Win this week, and this Cats outfit will be remembered as one of the all-time great teams. Lose, and they will probably be forgotten.
If you crunch the numbers, the Cats deserve a premiership – just like Gary Ablett deserved a Brownlow Medal.
Since Round 6, 2007, Geelong has won 55 of 61 regular season games. Its only finals defeat during that time has been to Hawthorn in last year’s Grand Final.
It is a superb run, and worthy of applause, but if the Cats fail to lift the premiership cup this season, they will have just one flag to show for three years of success.
Geelong is also the only team in history to win 18 or more home-and-away matches in three successive seasons. That, in itself, is a mighty achievement, given that every team has aspired to knock the Geelong team off its perch.
Last weekend’s annihilation of Collingwood shattered all the questions surrounding the Cats before the finals.
But in football, we only remember the premiers. No one mentions Collingwood’s gallant nine-point loss to Brisbane, in 2002, or West Coast’s one-point loss to Sydney, in 2005, because the loser is forgotten.
The Cats’ run is reminds us of the Essendon era of 1999-2001. The Bombers won just one premiership, despite having a 56-10 win-loss in home-and-away matches over three seasons.
Leigh Matthews is one that has made the comparison.
Essendon finished equal on wins with Matthews’ Brisbane team in 2001 and were beaten by the Lions in the Grand Final.
The Bombers could (and maybe should) be remembered as one of history’s great teams, for their success over a period of time, but we determine greatness by premierships.
Some may say this is unfair, but there are no prizes for second and supporters expect teams replicate their regular season form in the pressure-cooker atmosphere of finals.
A look at history, though, reveals that, since 1990, just seven of 19 teams have won the double – the minor premiership and the flag.
Winning finals becomes habitual, much like winning during the home-and-away season does. Fans of the game place an emphasis on, more than anything else, a team’s experience in finals.
This year, the Cats have a hungry St.Kilda to contend with – just like the Bombers had the Brisbane Lions hunting them down in 2001.
The trouble with having success for a long period is that you become the hunted. Coaches, gradually, find a way through any weaknesses – no matter how small – because the top teams are analysed, externally, more than their rivals.
The bookmakers still believe Geelong is the competition’s benchmark. Despite St.Kilda’s 20-2 regular season win-loss record, the Cats are the favourites with most bookmakers to make-up for last year’s disappointment.
Geelong finished four games clear of Hawthorn last season, but the Hawks saluted on Grand Final day.
So what is the method for finals success? Ask the Brisbane Lions.
Leigh Matthews’ team won a hat-trick of premierships and didn’t finish as minor premier in any of those seasons.
Port Adelaide, on the other hand, topped the competition ladder three seasons in succession – 2002-2004 – yet made just one season-decider.
That may provide some comfort for Geelong this season.
Geelong wasn’t the first, and won’t be last, team to waste a near-faultless home-and-away campaign in the season-finale.
But it will enter this year’s season finale without the burden of the minor premiership – history will tell you it is a good place to be.
It will all amount to nothing if the Cats lose on Saturday. You just don’t know when the next opportunity will arrive.
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We’re taking a look at one player from each team that needs to make a difference this week, starting with the ANZAC Day games.
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