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Why Melbourne will win the NRL grand final

Roar Guru
2nd October, 2009
12
1471 Reads
Will Chambers (Melb) scores the 1st try NRL - 2009 Preliminary Finals Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos Etihad Stadium, Melbourne  Saturday 26 September 2009 © Sport the library/Jeff Crow ©Action Photographics

Will Chambers (Melb) scores the 1st try NRL - 2009 Preliminary Finals Melbourne Storm vs Brisbane Broncos Etihad Stadium, Melbourne Saturday 26 September 2009 © Sport the library/Jeff Crow ©Action Photographics

There is a reason why Melbourne are about to play in their fourth straight grand final, and it is not because of any one player.

While Parramatta have ridden the coat-tails of Jarryd Hayne, and maybe one or two others, into the NRL decider, the Storm are here playing off for the premiership trophy yet again because they are the best team of the decade.

From fullback all along the backline, to their hooker and tough forward pack, there is not a single passenger wearing a purple jersey.

Each player has a role and they execute it without fail.

It is what makes Melbourne a brilliant team, and one that will win the 2009 premiership, with or without the breathtaking feats of their superstars.

A Greg Inglis fend, Billy Slater’s blinding speed or the pinpoint accuracy of Cooper Cronk and Cameron Smith’s short kicking game.

These are all the added ingredients that have seen Melbourne not just beat, but annihilate reigning premiers Manly 40-12 and 2006 champions Brisbane 40-10 in their past two games.

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It is rather poetic that for Melbourne to get into another decider they had to first eliminate the two teams who had caused them grand final heartache.

But unlike any previous season, Melbourne enter the biggest day of the season still running on full steam.

Last year they limped into the decider, they’d lost Smith (suspension) and Ryan Hoffman (injury), the team was mentally and physically fatigued, and they were simple down on form.

Now coach Craig Bellamy has timed their run to perfection.

The players are fresh after a deliberate rest and recovery program late in the season, and furthermore they know exactly what to expect on this stage.

Melbourne have withstood physical intimidation, brutal confrontation and some of the game’s best attacking talent in recent weeks and never looked like losing.

While the Eels haven’t looked like choking this finals series, they’ve yet to play a team as patient as Melbourne at squeezing the life out of their opponents.

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Parramatta may believe they’re under no pressure at ANZ Stadium, but the 85,000-seat stadium will be full of blue and gold fans expecting nothing less than victory.

What they’ll need, is another Jarryd Hayne miracle.

MELBOURNE (4th 14-9-1) v PARRAMATTA (8th 12-11-1) at ANZ Stadium, 5pm
Head to head: Storm 12, Eels 9

Last five games:
Eels 18-16 at Parramatta Stadium (rd 19, 2009)
Eels 24-22 at Parramatta Stadium (rd 16, 2008)
Storm 26-10 at Etihad Stadium (preliminary final, 2007)
Storm 14-10 at Olympic Park (rd 23, 2007)
Storm 12-6 at Olympic Park (qualifying final, 2006)

Finals head to head: Storm 3, Eels 0

Finals results
Storm 18-16 at Sydney Football Stadium (Preliminary final, 1999)
Storm 12-6 at Olympic Park (Qualifying final, 2006)
Storm 26-10 at Etihad Stadium ((Preliminary final, 2007)

Biggest head-to-head wins:
Storm 50-12 Olympic Park (rd 23, 2003)
Eels 54-10 Etihad Stadium (rd 20, 2001)

Recent form: Storm LWWWW Eels WLWWW
TAB Sportsbet: Storm $1.60, Eels $2.35
Footytab: Eels +3.5

No-one can question the form of these two sides, with the Storm having been simply dominant in both of their finals wins and the Eels having won 10 of their last 11 matches – becoming the first side to come from eighth to make the grand final since the introduction of the McIntyre system in 1999. Both sides are led by the exploits of their classy No.1s, with even NRL boss David Gallop describing the Billy Slater v Jarryd Hayne clash as a dream match-up for the game. Much has been made of the Eels’ risky attack, but it is worth noting the Storm have run up 40 points in both of their finals wins to show they’re no slouches with the ball in hand. In defence, the Eels have shown an ability to play the full 80 minutes by conceding only four points in the second half of their three finals games, while no team has scored a first-half point against Melbourne in the Storm’s past four games. The Eels have vowed to stick with the game plan that got them this far, but it will be interesting to see if they suffer any stage fright on Sunday night. The Storm have a massive edge in grand final experience, boasting 28 deciders in their squad compared to just four for the Eels.

Key: You’re only as good as your weakest player and, while both line-ups are littered with stars, the battle of the lesser-knowns could well decide the outcome.
Tip: STORM by 12

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