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Queensland's Anthony Faingaa gets into space during the Super 14 match between the Queensland Reds and the Canterbury Crusaders at Suncorp Stadium in Brisbane, Friday, Feb. 19, 2010. (AAP Image/Dave Hunt)
As I watched my tips going down the drain in the first three matches of the frenetic Super 14 second round, I remembered the old adage that journalists are prophets of the past.
We can tell you exactly why something happened after it has happened. But we are like everyone else, including alleged clairvoyants, in that we can’t accurately predict the future. And this is as it should be. One of the attractions of big time sports is its glorious uncertainty (to coin a cliche).
The opening match of the second round saw the Highlanders at home against the flaky Blues.
This seemed like an obvious win to the Highlanders who were impressive the week before against the Crusaders. But Jimmy Cowan decided (or was told by his coaches) to kick away all the good ball won for his side by a good pack.
The Blues are much better with the ball in their hands than defending, so Cowan actually was kicking the Blues back into the game. Another kick, an attempted charge down and the Blues were racing away for a 70m try that sealed the match for them.
Match one tip lost.
Then came the upset of the tournament so far, I reckon with a rampant Reds side reducing the Crusaders to a mistake-ridden mess by direct running in the backs and forwards, and some stern defence that forced more turnovers than the Crusaders have surrendered in total for a number of years.
The key to the Reds’ victory was great running from Quade Cooper and Peter Hynes from fullback, and another superb display of passing and running at halfback from Will Genia.
This was the first victory by the Reds, resplendent in their new red colours (which clashed unfortunately with the Crusaders’ away kit), in 11 years. It also meant that my second tip was down the drain.
The Cheetahs defeated the toothless Sharks with the Sharks kicking away good ball as if they were playing under the old interpretations. This was the first away win the Cheetahs have recorded in three seasons. Another tip down the drain.
Then came one of the more remarkable games ever played in Super Rugby, or in any other rugby tournament for that matter. A team that scores 65 points as the Lions did against the Chiefs and LOSES is something that might happen in a T20 cricket match but never in rugby.
The Chiefs, of course, played beautifully with the ball in hand. From the kick-off, for instance, they ran the ball from their goal line, with Richard Kahui making a terrific break, and almost scored at the other end of the field.
But their defence, tactical awareness and kicking were appalling. What is it with New Zealand teams playing brain-dead rugby so often?
Stephen Donald might have scored 32 points but he allowed the Lions back into the game when his side was about 30 points up and 15 minutes to play and altitude had got to his players. Donald put a chip kick through from inside his 22.
The Lions duly regathered the ball, scored and then scored and scored and got within a converted try of an unlikely victory. With time up the Chiefs halfback Brendon Leonard continued the brain dead tactics by kicking the ball up field rather than out. The Lions replied with a final try.
At least I got a point by picking the Chiefs to win.
And another point with my pick that the Hurricanes would defeat the weakened Western Force. In the end this was an easy victory on the scoreboard. But in the 20 minutes after half time the game was in the balance with the Force only 13 points down and on a roll.
The Hurricanes couldn’t get their hands on the ball. When they finally got possession Piri Weepu continued the New Zealand tradition of brain dead play by kicking the ball down field for the Force to run it back at the Hurricanes.
I tipped against the two Australian sides playing in South Africa. I didn’t want to do this but I couldn’t see how the Waratahs could defeat the Bulls, a side that looks like the best in the tournament so far. The Brumbies were competitive for an hour and then started making mistakes and were penalised by the South African referee, Mark Lawrence.
The Brumbies pack, with a nonsense of a forward in Justin Harrison in the second row, is not good enough in the set pieces to allow the Brumbies to be a realistic contender, at this stage in the tournament.
Matt Giteau underplayed his hand at five-eighths. Rocky Elsom had a storming game in the loose. But there is not much firepower in the outside backs. Admittedly, though, the Brumbies won’t face many sides this season, if any others, as strong as the Bulls and as well-coached.
While there was some comfort for the Brumbies in their defeat, the same can’t be said for the Waratahs in their defeat by the Stormers. They have no discernible winning pattern or style of play. They kick the ball away continually when the new interpretations scream out for teams to keep their hands on the ball.
Luke Burgess is embarrassing at halfback with his poor passing and indecision when setting up plays. Again, like the Brumbies, their pace out wide should be there (it is on paper) but there doesn’t seem to be much action from the back three.
After the first three upsets, I had a chat with my son, and publisher of The Roar, Zac. He commiserated with me and advised that I should be more heuristic with my tips in the future.
Heuristic? I looked the word up and discovered that it means creating solutions based on experience, with a sort of trial and error system.
So what does the experience of the first two rounds tell us?
First, teams that keep the ball in hand and only kick when necessary and then for touch will do well. Second, the better teams have strong running back games from their back three. Third, these teams are very fit. One of the players was quoted as saying that he has never experienced such fast rugby as in the first round match.
Fourth, teams need solid set piece, which rules out the Force with Matt Dunning not even being able to time his touch let alone keep his side of the scrum up.
Other heuristic opinions are always to back the the Hurricanes, Chiefs, Stormers and Bulls playing at home (and the Bulls away from home, I reckon too): remember that when Craig Joubert, the referee in the Reds – Crusaders match, referees the home side generally wins.
And that local teams refereed by local referees generally win.
For the record, the local referees next weeks are Chris Pollock NZ with the Crusaders – Sharks: Craig Joubert RSA with Stormers – Brumbies: ‘Aussie’ Steve Walsh with the Reds – Blues: Marius Jonker RSA with Bulls – Waratahs.