The Super 14 has now passed the halfway point, with six weeks remaining before the finals series. The points table presents a somewhat confusing picture, with some teams having played seven games and the others, having had a bye, only six.
The situation becomes somewhat clearer if team totals are adjusted by allowing four points for the bye. With this correction the current table becomes:
Bulls 32
Stormers 27
Crusaders 27
Waratahs 23
Reds 23
Brumbies 21
Chiefs 21
Blues 20
Hurricanes 16
Cheetahs 13
Sharks 12
Highlanders 10
Force 5
Lions 3
It would appear that there are still nine teams with some prospect of making the semi finals: the Cheetahs, Sharks, Highlanders, Force and Lions having dropped out of contention.
Although the bottom five may still cause the odd upset, the key matches are going to be those between the top nine.
Bonus points may still be important, although thus far there is a very limited spread of these extra points between the top nine. The Stormers, Crusaders, Waratahs, Reds and Hurricanes each have three; the Bulls and Blues have four; while the outliers are the Brumbies and Chiefs on one and five respectively.
Looking at the key matches for each of the nine in the run home:
* The Bulls on 32 play away against the Blues, Chiefs and Reds, before finishing with a home game against the Crusaders.
* The Stormers on 27 similarly play away against the Blues, Chiefs and Reds, before finishing with a home game against the Crusaders.
* The Crusaders on 27 play away against the Hurricanes, then are home to the Waratahs, before finishing away to the Stormers and Bulls.
* The Waratahs on 23 play away to the Crusaders, home to the Brumbies, then away to the Chiefs.
* The Reds on 23 are at home to the Bulls and Stormers, then away to the Brumbies and Hurricanes.
* The Brumbies on 21 are at home to the Hurricanes, away to the Waratahs, then home to the Reds.
* The Chiefs on 21 are at home to the Bulls and Stormers, away to the Hurricanes, then away to the Waratahs.
* The Blues on 20 are at home to the Bulls and Stormers.
* Finally, the Hurricanes on 16 are at home to the Crusaders, away to the Brumbies, then home to the Chiefs.
The key matches this weekend are Blues Vs Bulls and Hurricanes Vs Crusaders.
If these go according to script, the Blues and Hurricanes will basically drop out of contention. Unless one or more of the top three begin to drop games, there is likely to be a fierce contest for the fourth semi spot between the three Australian contenders and the Chiefs.
Matches between those four over the last three weeks – Waratahs Vs Brumbies, Brumbies Vs Reds, and Chiefs Vs Waratahs – may well be the discriminator.
Of course, upset wins by the bottom five teams or an accumulation of bonus points may upset this logic.
steve
Guest
Sharks still have a mathematical chance to get into the semi's....watch this space! (I hope)
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Let's not get too hasty. The Sharks and Waratahs were leading the competition after seven rounds last year.
breakaway
Guest
Hawko, the trouble for Blues, Chiefs and Canes now is that they now are playing catch up. Even if they win, some other teams will stay in front (esp Brumbies & Tahs which have a majority of home games) and any losses plunge them further into the mire. I think it is tough for those three kiwi teams to make the finals. To do so they have to be consistent (which they haven't been to date) and hope for upsets to open the door for them.
Hammer
Guest
the Crusaders appear on a collision course if they finish second ... they'd have to travel back from SA for a home semi in CHCH and quite possibly turn around and fly back to SA for a final ... and possibly at altitude
mudskipper
Guest
Agree with Brett the last round will be sorting the final contenders... Blues v Chiefs, Auckland Waratahs v Hurricanes, Sydney Crusaders v Brumbies, Christchurch Stormers v Bulls, Cape Town At present quite a number of top 6 teams haven't played each. The Crusaders late SA road trip will be tough meeting the Brumbies at home for week 14. Interestingly if the Stormers and Bulls come in 1st and 2nd the challenging teams will play all their semis rugby in Sa and not have to trot around the globe those weeks. Additionally if the Bulls get a semi its not at Lofus because of the soccer world cup so I believe they will loose a little home advantage. Tip is it could be an upset final gentlemen…
Troy
Guest
The comps been good and only getting better, big change from last year!
Peter K
Guest
Wow what an over reaction to a 12-9 penalty count. Lam is trying to redirect attention away from their poor season IMO. Notice that Lyndon Bray said it was ok. Of course Lam wants NZ refs for his games. Maybe the TJ's were eveneing it up with the rookie NZ ref being in the Blues corner.
reds fan
Guest
Neutral refs are a must. I can't believe they scrapped them.
Hawko
Guest
Next two weeks are critical for the Blues. They have the Bulls then the Stormers. They MUST win one of those, preferably both as they are a long way back. Based on last week's form they can do it, Stormers game is more difficult because they choke the life out of you defensively. Win both and they are on the charge for the finals and someone else is going to be disappointed.
Hammer
Guest
In light of this ... http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=10635248 .... it may also be worthwhile to note who is officiating each game .. Initially I though typical coach banging on after a loss - but Lam is not prone to this sort of stuff - and he does qualify his comments saying that the Blues didn't deserve it in the end .... but given Marks abject performance in the Sharks game and now this .. certainly makes you wonder ...
Bruce Ross
Roar Pro
You may well be right about the Blues, Peter. They actually have a run of four games against bottom-5 teams: Force at home; and Sharks, Cheetahs and Lions away.
Brett McKay
Expert
Bruce, the last round alone shapes as a cracker, depending on how games go between now and then: Blues v Chiefs, Auckland Waratahs v Hurricanes, Sydney Crusaders v Brumbies, Christchurch Stormers v Bulls, Cape Town Good luck with tips!!
Bruce Ross
Roar Pro
Oops! I have just realised that I have totally omitted Week 14. It illustrates the perils of getting up in the middle of the night to put together a complex article. As it happens I left out the most critical week with eight of the nine top teams having key matches. Just to update, in Week 14: The Bulls play the Stormers at home. The Crusaders play the Brumbies at home. The Waratahs play the Hurricanes at home. And finally, the Blues play the Chiefs at home. What I intend to do is to update the analysis on a weekly basis. The next two weeks may provide some real clarity to a situation which currently has a myriad of permutations.
Bruce Ross
Roar Pro
Couldn't agree more, Rickety.
Rickety Knees
Roar Guru
Mate - good to see Uni putting up their hand to help Parra.
Peter K
Guest
Bruce I too have looked at this, it is a very even comp and that makes it exciting. I disagree re Blues being out if they lose to the Bulls. They have 3 of the bottom teams to play, also they are a team that can easily get 5 pts a win. The Blues challenge will be the 1st up game in SA and then the one on return. Also I do see it a distinct possibility of the top 3 dropping games since they are away from home on tour.