A number of unexpected results have compressed the Super 14 points table but probably reduced the potential semi-finallists to eight teams.
The Australian media has focussed on the fact that the Waratahs are nominally top of the table, but they are there on sufferance as a consequence of not yet having had a bye. The real situation becomes clear after adjusting team points by adding four points for the bye. With this correction the current table becomes:
Bulls 32
Crusaders 29
Stormers 28
Waratahs 28
Reds 25
Chiefs 25
Brumbies 25
Blues 24
Hurricanes 18
Sharks 16
Cheetahs 13
Highlanders 11
Force 9
Lions 7
Thus the true position of the Waratahs is fourth place.
It would now appear that the Hurricanes have virtually dropped out of contention, leaving eight points separating eight teams. As we have seen this week, teams in the bottom six are still capable of causing upsets, but the key matches are likely to be those between teams still in contention. Looking at the run home for each of them:
The Bulls on 32 have to play the Chiefs and Reds away, then finish with home games against the Crusaders and Stormers. They can no longer be regarded as certainties to make the semis but should get there.
The Crusaders on 29 are at home to the Waratahs, then away to the Stormers and Bulls, before hosting the Brumbies in the final round.
The Stormers on 28 are away to the Blues, Chiefs and Reds, at home to the Crusaders, then away to the Bulls.
The Waratahs on 28 are away to the Crusaders, at home to the Brumbies, then away to the Chiefs.
The Reds on 25 are at home to the Bulls and Stormers, then away to the Brumbies.
The Chiefs on 25 are at home to the Bulls, Stormers and Waratahs then away to the Blues.
The Brumbies on 25 are away to the Waratahs, at home to the Reds and away to the Crusaders. They may regret only having collected one bonus point thus far.
The Blues on 24 are at home to the Stormers and Chiefs.
It could be that the eighth-placed Blues, by virtue of their easier run home, may sneak into the finals series, but the qualifying teams and order of finishing may only be resolved in the final week.
Keith
Guest
I think a fairer way to correct for the bye would be to rank teams on the percentage of potential competition points they have earned. The Warratahs have earned 28 points out of a possible 40 (8 games at 5 points each), so they have 70% of their potential points. After correcting for the bye, the top four is: Bulls - 80% Crusaders - 71% Warratahs - 70% Stormers - 69% Since the competition went to 14 teams in 06, the average cut to make the finals has been 62% The Blues have got three critical matches in their run-in, and I think they're going to have to win at least two of them to have a shot: - Stomers(h) - Sharks(a) -Chiefs(h) That makes Saturday against the Stormers at Eden Park pretty much season defining. But, in order to get a realistic shot at the final we're going to have to have a home semi. That means winning all three of those critical run-in matches and picking up some bonus points against the Force, Cheetahs and Lions. It's doable, but we're going to have to go on a dream run. This is a competition which rewards your regular season finishing order and I reckon that's fair enough. Of the 28 semi finals played so far, only four have been won by the away side. The last time was when the Brumbies humiliated the Warratahs in 2002. Weirdly enough, the three other winning away semi finalists all won overseas, most notably the '99 Highlanders who travelled to Cape Town and the '96 Natal who travelled to Brisbane. The finals have been a little more forgiving to visitors, with four out of 14 away sides winning the title. The last time was 2007 when Habana found broke Durban hearts. The only away team to win a final in another country was the 2000 Crusaders, and they only had to go to Canberra.
Bruce Ross
Roar Pro
Thanks for the correction, Ora. I blame Murdoch. Giving the franchises non geographic names, although I obviously should have associaed Cape Town with the Stormers.
Peter K
Guest
Since the top 10 teams are fairly close you need to consider them in your matches. Both Sharks and Canes are quite able of beating the top teams especially at home so they need to still be considered in the calculations in terms of knocking teams out.
PB
Guest
Fair to call the 'Canes season over, but you have to factor them in as *serious* spoilers for these other eight teams, given their performance against the Crusaders and Bulls. Being out of it will only make them more dangerous.
Ora
Guest
Bruce , i think you'll find the Bulls are playing the Stormers in Cape Town so it is an away game for them
Bruce Ross
Roar Pro
They are fourth rather than equal third, bennalong, on points difference, a factor that may be vital at season end. Where there are byes, competition organisers frequently allot points for the bye precisely to prevent the anomaly of what we have now, the Waratahs appearing to be on top when they still have a week to sit out and earn no points. And four points rather than five for the bye as it is rare for teams to pick up the four-try bonus. I hope that clarifies the logic.
bennalong
Guest
"Thus the true position of the Waratahs is fourth place" Or equal third, eh Bruce? And why 4 points for the bye?