After 10 games, there’s still only one clear semi-finalist. Five points clear of the chasing pick, with two home games to come, you’d have to back the Bulls to at least make the semis.
Home advantage is by no means certain though, with the Sharks, Crusaders and Stormers still to come. The Bulls heavies are looking tired and a hard match-up against the Sharks next week is going to leave them vulnerable to a desperate Crusaders team.
And then an away trip to Newlands to face the Stormers in what could be a do-or-die game for the Capetonians… but Morne Steyn at Loftus is a beautiful thing. Who can bet against that?
I have a nagging suspicion one of the Stormers or Crusaders is not going to make the final four… they both have a nightmare run home. The Crusaders can very easily drop both their remaining away games – their record at Loftus is terrible of late and the Stormers should be able to stop the red and black machine at home.
That being said, the Sharks and Bulls both know how to beat the Stormers and do so more often than not, which means the Stormers and Crusaders could be in sitting tied for 4th place with points differential making up the difference.
I’m backing the Reds and Waratahs to fill the other two spots. Everyone else is just too far off the pace, much as I’d like to see the Sharks surprise everyone. The odds are just too long on the front runners losing them all.
So, through a very muddy crystal ball I see…
1. Bulls.
2. Reds.
3. Waratahs.
4. Stormers.
eric
Guest
The Waratahs have the best run home, playing teams 7, 10 & 11, and the top 3 play each other, so it is reasonable to think there will be some movement in the rankings. It would be sad to see such a negative team as the Tahs make it in, particularly as they got the rub of the green from the refs in the Force, Sharks and Brumbies games. jameswm, fair point about finals pressure, but Tahs can't even play with enterprise when there is no pressure. Lachlan Turner's half time comment about reducing mistakes sums up the mantra that gets drilled into the team. You could hear the groans all across rugbyland when he said that. Lets see this year whether they think it is worth going for a bonus point to get a home semi. However, teams 2-5 can all reach 42 points at least, with two wins from three, but if any of them drop two games, they're gone.
jameswm
Guest
All these people picking the Reds to make the top 2 - do you really think they'll bet the Brumbies in Canberra next weekend? I'd ,much rather be the Tahs playing the Highlanders. OJ and jiggles - you've got issues guys. To those who think the Reds have been fun to watch - they've been underdogs all season and it's a lot easier to play enterprising rugby when there's little pressure on you. Let's see if they play with the same abandon when the pressure to make the finals is weighing heavily on their shoulders.
Justin
Roar Pro
I hope the Crusaders miss, that 10-1 I got last week is looking sweet after their loss to the Force....
kiwisunshine
Roar Rookie
Yes, I tend to agree that the top 4 will be the Bulls,Reds,Tahs and the Stormers. I do think the Bulls will come 1st and secure home finals rights and I think who will come 2nd is a lottery. It will be awesome if the reds or tahs can secure a home semi by coming 2nd. I feel the loss by the Crusaders in Perth has really put them in a difficult position. Before the game they were pushing for a home semi, now after the loss they may be lucky to make the Top 4. Im sure its been a long time since there was no NZ side in the Super 12 or Super 14 semis. My Tip If you like watching open running rugby, watch the remaining round robin games the H,Cannes have to play. They need 5 point wins to even have a remote hope of making the semis. And they will go for four tries in every game. The game against Otago on the w/kend was a thriller.
jiggles
Guest
I would like to see the sharks or blues make it but it won't happen
Who Needs Melon
Guest
A few before the game perhaps? Couldn't hurt.
cookie
Guest
Bulls Reds Stormers Tahs It would be great to have a semi final in both SA & Aust. More so if its Bulls vs Tahs & Reds vs Stormers or likewise. The Tah's aren't pretty nor entertaining but they seem to get the job done but I can't see them winning the comp... The crusaders are only here on paper because of the draw.... All the good teams to play against yet so tah tah The Brumbies just don't cut the mustard so forget about them...
ohtani's jacket
Guest
It's doubtful that would improve their performance.
Scotty in South Devon
Guest
Tinny wins??? They playing for beers, what a fine old concept!
ohtani's jacket
Guest
If the Rugby Gods are smiling then the Tahs won't make the finals. They shouldn't even be at the hunt at this point with the tinny wins they've had and I don't see why anyone would want their boring style of play contaminating the finals just because they're Australian. Too bad the Highlanders and Chiefs are too useless to do anything about it.
jiggles
Guest
If the Reds don't make the finals they only have themselves to blame. as a matter of fact with there run home they should make the top 2. I dont like the Tah's but with there run home they will probably make it in. As for the stormers, Crusaders and Bulls. those three all play each other so I have a feeling one of them and maybe even 2 might miss out. 1. Bulls 2. Reds 3. Stormers 4. Any one but the Tahs
Wawnout
Guest
Yeah. I'm hoping our blokes can spend all the time they will have not competing in finals sorting themselves into some sort of decent AB team. Oh yeah, I forgot, Henry and co. Anybody wants me I've gone fishin.
Rugby1
Guest
I'm going to be optimistic Reds Bulls Waratahs Stormers With last 3 rounds, bulls, crusaders, stormers play each other throw in the sharks to pip a game off one of them, reds and waratahs have a easier run to the finals. Best oz result in years!
Who Needs Melon
Guest
I think the Bulls, Stormers and Reds are all great teams and thoroughly deserve finals spots. I could watch those 3 teams play each other every week and not get bored. The rest seem to be doing their best to NOT make the finals at the moment.
Gary
Guest
Don't write off the Crusaders. They were beaten by their nemisis the Force but will bounce back. I think: 1. Bulls. 2. Reds 3. Stormers 4. Crusaders