Where the Super 14 Semis can be won and lost

It’s taken fourteen weeks, and with plenty of uncertainty and debate about the make-up along the way, but the last ever Super 14 Finals series is finally here. And it’s fitting, too, that after one of the best seasons in memory, in which some cracking rugby has been played by most teams, that it took until the last regular season game to confirm the final finishing order.

As was the case in 2007, those of us in Australia and New Zealand now face a late night next Saturday, with the Bulls taking on the Crusaders at the Orlando Stadium in Soweto first up, and the Stormers and Waratahs facing off in the second Semi at Newlands in Cape Town.

So let’s take a look at both games and see where they might be won and lost.

Bulls v Crusaders
As funny and obvious as this might sound, the Bulls’ road to the Final could well be won and lost in the infamous township of Soweto.

With the football World Cup in South Africa commandeering their Loftus Versfeld fortress in Pretoria, to prepare it for the biggest round-ball event on the planet next month, the Bulls were forced to take their hard-earned home finals on the road.

Orlando Stadium holds around ten thousand less screaming fans than does Loftus, and being in neighbouring Lions territory, it will be interesting see what kind of atmosphere abounds, given the ground has never hosted top-level rugby before.

As I wrote last week, the move to the notorious and historic township could prove to be an incredible inspiration for the Bulls. Likewise, the foreign surrounds could also be something the Crusaders focus on as they look to do what no other team has been able to do this season, and beat the men in blue in South Africa.

The Bulls obvious strength remains their imposing forwards pack though, and even their second-stringers worked to the same formula when given the chance against the Stormers last Saturday night.

Morne Steyn’s right boot obviously plays a big role in the Bulls game too, both in general play and for the touch line to set up the favoured lineout-into-rolling-maul, and of course with his prodigious goal-kicking from anywhere within (and even outside) the attacking half. The Crusaders discipline around the ruck will have to be extra good in their own half, for this very reason.

The Crusaders pack aren’t exactly mugs either, and their scrum was completely dominant in last Friday’s demolition of the Brumbies. In the Whitelock and Franks brothers, the Crusaders have some of the best young forwards coming though the New Zealand system. Mobile No.8 Keiran Read, too, will be a more-than-useful match for Bulls opposite Pierre Spies.

Throw the seasoned veterans Richie McCaw, Brad Thorn and Chris Jack into the mix and it’s no surprise the Crusaders are lining up for their twelfth Super Rugby finals series.

The Crusaders showed two weeks ago that they have the game to beat the Bulls, and proved as much for 79½ minutes. Their counter-attacking game is ideally suited to running the big Bulls forwards around, and is deadly when it comes to converting opportunity into points, as the Brumbies will also attest.

Stormers v Waratahs
Not that long ago, this second semi would have shaped up as a defence-dominated, dour, kick fest. However, in the last two weeks the Waratahs have played some of the best rugby of the year, and will undoubtedly go into the game high on confidence.

While the Stormers boast the best defence in the competition, having conceded 117 fewer points than the next best defensive team (NSW, coincidently), they also rank well among the top teams in attack too.

The Waratahs though, have only the Bulls and Blues in front of them in the number of tries scored in 2010, which, as hooker Adam Frier went to great lengths to explain in his Sun-Herald column, is a ‘Tahs record.

The “back three” of both sides are in red-hot form currently, and it will be interesting to see whether they cancel each other out, or indeed, whether one decides the game. The same can be said for the flyhalf match-up between Peter Grant and Berrick Barnes, actually.

The Waratahs scrum and lineout will need to be at their very best to nullify their Stormers opposites. In fact, I’d suggest the ‘Tahs might be well served not kicking for touch at all, just to avoid the Stormers line-out colossus Andries Bekker, the tallest man in Super rugby, and possibly the world.

While the Stormers will be looking to make the most of every counter-attacking opportunity, I feel the Waratahs best chance for a Final berth will be if they stick with this ball-in-hand game they’ve got going currently. If they go back into their shell, and try to grind out a win, I suspect they’ll just be playing into the Stormers hands.

The 2010 results in the Republic would suggest the Bulls and Stormers are heading for another South African showdown, but on current form, I certainly couldn’t rule either the Waratahs or Crusaders out.

In fact, the way the season has played out, a Waratahs-Crusaders Final in Sydney wouldn’t be that big a surprise at all.

Whatever the outcome, it’s sure to be an outstanding finish to a Super season.