While there were some very encouraging signs in the Wallabies’ performance against England in Perth, it is significant that the home side was not able to build on their 14 point lead at half-time and, in fact, lost the second half. This continues a worrying trend.
Last year, there was intense speculation over the causes of the poor performance of the Wallabies during the Deans era, but one issue that has not been raised is whether their training has been appropriate for the intense physical demands of modern international rugby.
One indication that something is seriously wrong is the fact that the team has very frequently squandered a first-half lead.
Of course, there are so many factors that can influence how a game plays out that not much can be read into the scores in a particular game. The effects of long distance travel or a country fielding an under-strength team can have a major impact on the pattern of scoring.
However, in contests between Australia and New Zealand, distance is not really a relevant factor and both nations always endeavour to select their strongest team, so these matches provide an ideal environment to search for consistent patterns evident over a number of matches.
Let’s look at the last ten matches played between these countries prior to Robbie Deans taking over as coach.
Australia is listed first with the first half scoreline, second half scoreline and overall result shown for each match:
15 Nov 03 13-7 W, 9-3 W, 22-10 W
17 Jul 04 0-3 L, 7-13 L, 7-16 L
7 Aug 04 12-12 D, 11-6 W, 23-18 W
13 Aug 05 13-3 W, 0-27 L, 13-30 L
3 Sep 05 5-20 L, 19-14 W, 24-34 L
8 Jul 06 7-14 L, 5-18 L, 12-32 L
29 Jul 06 6-10 L, 3-3 D, 9-13 L
19 Aug 06 20-11 W, 7-23 L, 27-34 L
30 Jun 07 6-15 L, 14-0 W, 20-15 W
21 Jul 07 9-9 D, 3-17 L, 12-26 L
It can be seen that the Wallabies won three of the first halves, drew two and lost five. They won four second halves, drew one and lost five. Overall they won three games and lost seven.
Now let’s look at the stats for the eight Wallabies-All Blacks games since Deans has taken over:
26 Jul 08 17-12 W, 17-7 W, 34-19 W
2 Aug 08 10-21 L, 0-18 L, 10-39 L
13 Sep 08 10-3 W, 14-25 L, 24-28 L
1 Nov 08 14-9 W, 0-10 L, 14-19 L
18 Jul 09 13-10 W, 3-12 L, 16-22 L
22 Aug 09 12-3 W, 6-16 L, 18-19 L
19 Sep 09 6-16 L, 0-17 L, 6-33 L
31 Oct 09 16-13 W, 3-19 L, 19-32 L
Here we see that the Wallabies won an impressive six out of eight first halves, but lost seven out of eight second halves and eight out of eight matches!
Once the Deans coaching team had settled in, like after the first Bledisloe match in July 2008, their team has lost every second half and every match.
This looks like something more than random chance.
The most likely culprit would seem to be inappropriate physical conditioning.
sixo_clock
Roar Guru
I think we disagree with your hypothesis that conditioning is a major factor. The consensus seems to be that there is not enough mental fitness, leadership or just a cultural dislike of piling on points. When the 'Boks have humiliated the SH opposition (mate they were awesome against les Bleus) we will have better idea, the two visiting teams so far have been wooden, not real 'Tests' at all.
Bruce Ross
Roar Pro
Apart fom the bald and unsubstantiated statement, "The fade-out is not fitness, it's tactical", none of the comments addresses my contention that the Wallabies under Robbie Deans are losing a disproportionate number of second halves because of inappropriate physical conditioning.
sixo_clock
Roar Guru
No names no pack drill. There is a difference between beating yourself up (negative) and self-criticism (positive). If you watched the RSA vs Les Bleus game you will probably have realised how playing against them any hesitation whatsoever will be pounced on, most especially the link players (9/10) the 'Boks are an awesome unit at the moment. To be world class players at elite levels individuals have to work mostly on themselves, they need bring to the match multiple games/versions to counter the opposition or surprise them. That cannot be coached because the mindset cannot be derivative, it has to be creative. Being happy about your game and not pursuing improvement will limit potential.
g-rad
Guest
Thats a silly thing to say. If anything, Burgess is too critical of himself.
sixo_clock
Roar Guru
Agreed, I would just change 'tough' to 'hard' - could be a generational thing too. Eg: We have a halfback in the squad who is seemingly indifferent to the impact his game has on the side, plays the same whatever the situation and consequently bounces from hero to villain and back. Had he an ounce of self-criticism he possibly could be first choice halfback simply by expanding and improving his game because he is quite resilient, gutsy, obviously athletic, he just needs to train himself harder. But the FaceBook generation have all the support they need in their social group(s) and never look at themselves from outside. So he probably does all his training at organised sessions and little or none outside those times which limits his potential.
Gary Russell-Sharam
Guest
We are just not tough enough these days. Tony Shaw second row back row from Brothers in Qld in the seventies was a great Wallaby captain that kept the team's mind on the job but in Rocky Elsom we have a nice bloke who plays well as the captain. Not enough mongrel in the present day players. They seem to roll over in the second half when the going gets tough. Tony Shaw was the master of inflicting pain in the rucks and drove his men on by setting an example to the rest of the team. Never take a backward step and grind your opponents into the ground. That's what the Wallabies thinking should be. But I doubt whether these thoughts enter their minds these days I have the opinion that they should be on win / lose bonus payments, as it is at present no matter if they win or loose they still get hansomely paid for the game, not much incentive is there. Don't talk aboput patriatism that went out when we became professional.
Georgie McHugh
Guest
Get Will Genia fit and give him the mandate to chirp at the referee George-Gregan style with the captaincy would not be the worst idea. However, I accept that this probably should not happen for a few seasons to allow him to grow into his position in the Australian side.
sixo_clock
Roar Guru
IMO the problem is the choice of captain. We need a leader (or maybe an angry, greedy, pushy insatiable bastard) to continue to push push push our sides to keep the scoreboard ticking over. The fitness is not in question it is whether the team sees the necessity to continually apply pressure. Not sure who, I don't see a NFJ or JE in the current squad but without the underlying desire to play full on fun (scoring) rugby for eighty minutes we have to change something or expect to lose second halves regularly.
John Rogers
Guest
The fade-out is not fitness, it's tactical. When the opposition gets into the Wallaby 22 in the 2nd half, the only option we have taken when we finally get the ball, is to kick it back to them, so you'll find there are long periods in every 2nd half where all we do is defend. Two culprits - 1. modern-day coaching besotted with the concept that you only play proper rugby when you get into the opponent's half, and that means no risks, just boot the ball down there and hope for a mistake. 2. Giteau, who has mindlessly done the kicking and ruined any chance for Western Force (when he was there) and Australia by panic kicking. The solution is to keep ball in hand and away from the opposition - as the All Blacks do - and move it downfield in stages via the forwards initially. Thankfully we've now got Cooper who's lessinclined to kick, and the ruck rule now favours the side in possession - and in the to tests to date the Wallabies have shown a willingness to keep hold of the ball. That's provided Giteau doesn't get into 5/8, and Barnes tendency to show off his so-called kicking prowess is curtailed by keeping him on the sidelines. Run the ball!
CraigB
Roar Guru
Cant be sure what happen against Fiji, but I'm pretty sure the Wallabies increased their lead. Against the Poms, the lead was built in part on the domination of the Wallaby forward in the lineout and at the breakdown. Now, those scrum lessons being dished out so eagerly by the English will have an effect on those areas as they tire. That partnered with an increase emphasis on the breakdown by the ENglish means we were not as dominant. Greater parity in the scrum will solve this issue.
matt
Guest
we have no excuse..;the all blacks are just simply better
Bruce Ross
Roar Pro
Correction. The fourth last sentence should read: Here we see that the Wallabies won an impressive 6 out of 8 first halves, but lost 7 out of 8 second halves and 7 out of 8 matches!