With a couple of days off from the World Cup, it is the perfect time to reflect, and more importantly, look forward to the final eight games of the tournament.
One thing has become rather clear, conservative football won’t win games from here on in.
In the wake of arguably the worst game of the tournament between Paraguay and Japan, the conservative football played by the Asian side saw it eliminated at the round of 16.
There was a lack of adventure from the Japanese, and they paid for it, deservedly, in a penalty shootout.
But with only eight teams left, the run of the conservative will end here.
The first quarter final between Uruguay and Ghana is an unpredictable tie.
The South Americans have played some entertaining football this tournament, but have a tendency of going back into their shell when a goal up.
They hung on against Mexico in the group stage, but allowed South Korea the freedom and possession to get back into the game in the last round.
They did, and only a stunning strike from the impressive Luis Suarez rescued Uruguay.
Ghana probably lacks the talent to defeat a Uruguay in full flight and appear to have a reliance on Asamoah Gyan to find the net.
He has – three times – including a fine individual winner against the USA in extra time.
Like the Paraguay-Japan clash, this game has the potential of becoming a battle of not wanting to lose rather than trying to win.
Whoever plays with more adventure will win, and it should be Uruguay.
But the winner is facing a tough challenge in the semi final against the winner of a huge quarter final between Brazil and the Netherlands.
The Netherlands will need to expand their attacking game to overcome favourite Brazil.
Scraping through won’t be an option with a conservative style; the Dutch will need to take the game to the in-form Brazilians.
In reality, they won’t stop Brazil from scoring, so they will need to find the net, probably more than once, to progress.
Like Brazil, Diego Maradona’s Argentina hasn’t held back in an attacking sense this tournament, but it could be their potential downfall against the young, quick and counterattacking Germans.
The Argentines love controlling possession and would love for Lionel Messi to find his first Cup goal, although along with Brazil, they appear to have the most avenues to goal.
Gonzalo Higuain (four goals) and Carlos Tevez (two) are a formidable pairing when you consider Messi is in just behind.
They have also appeared a danger from the set piece, particularly corners.
Creating chances won’t be difficult, but taking them will be important, as will the presence of Javier Mascherano in the holding midfield role, to counter the fluent and clinical German counter.
The winner will most likely meet Spain, who plays Paraguay in its quarterfinal.
Spain appears to have a reliance on David Villa for goals, but while they remain in the tournament the likes of Fernando Torres, Andres Iniesta, Xavi and co could find some goal scoring touch.
Or they can simply rely on Villa, who is in superb form in front of goals.
The way the new Barcelona man is handled with an out of form Torres will be interesting.
Paraguay could let loose with the level of expectation just about out the window.
It is an attacking threat and should explore the option against the Spaniards.
Regardless, conservative football has barely won games in South Africa thus far, although some teams did progress, but it certainly won’t get teams any further.
How will the games pan out and who will meet in the final?
apaway
Guest
I have a feeling the octopus is going to get it right again. Perhaps he thinks that, like me, Maradona has taken his team this far on emotion rather than tactical nous, that they have a shaky defence which Germany have the players to exploit. I do think it might end up being the best game of the tournament.
Dejan Kalinic
Roar Guru
Check out the link left by whiskeymac above for a good story on the Dutch. You could put together a fairly decent starting 11 with the players on the Netherlands bench.
Dejan Kalinic
Roar Guru
I must apologize to Paul. An octopus can make someone look like an idiot now! Good call on the three goals in four games. They struggled to break down Japan. Against Slovakia (2-0) they were fluent, Italy (1-1) was more conservative and they also struggled against New Zealand (0-0). I think Spain will win comfortably but surely Paraguay will play with more attacking freedom given there is little to no expectation on them to progress any further. When you have players like Nelson Valdez and Roque Santa Cruz - the dangerous Lucas Barrios and Oscar Cardozo, you hold some threat. I guess you could make a case for every World Cup team though. From memory, they employ a 4-3-3 (they took six strikers, Australia took three), someone will correct me if I'm wrong, but they need to go forward. Simple reason is I don't think they can keep Spain from scoring. Don't tell me you're sticking with Paul the Octopus on the Argentina-Germany game?
apaway
Guest
That's dangerous, Dejan. Paul the Octopus picked Germany. I think you alluded to Paraguay as an attacking threat. Haven't they scored 3 goals in 4 games so far?
MelbCro
Guest
The Dutch have been pretty conservative, its worked well for them so far. honestly every match they have been taking a casual stroll. That won't work against Brazil, interesting to see what the Dutch will offer when they actualy fire up
Dejan Kalinic
Roar Guru
Should Maradona play five in the midfield to cope with Germany's five? Only Serbia did it and it succeeded. You don't want either out, but who will win? I'll go Argentina. Thanks Smoky, I knew I should research the word itself.
Smokygrayson
Guest
Ghana have made it through to this level on good fortune and a few flash in the pan strikes, they won't progress any further unless they have some real luck. Brazil vs the Netherlands will be fascinating, to see if the Dutch efficiency machine can withstand the assault of Brazil. Can Brazil play on the counter? As for Argentina vs Germany, this is the best tie so far and could perhaps be better than the final. Will the germans continue with their rampaging, ruthless movement, or will Argentina be able to shut them out? Argentina will have to bring their midfield back to cope with germany's forward line. It should be intriguing to see how Argentina compare to England. This will be Maradona's biggest test so far and Argentina will have to really sparkle to beat the Germans. Personally, I don't want either of these teams out of the cup. Great analysis as usual Dejan. But it's 'conservatism' not conservativeness.
whiskeymac
Guest
sounds like a very Pim thing to do. wait. Cruyff must be fuming at his legacy (not losing a final by 4 goals, the other one) - maybe the KNVB cld spin that Pim and Van Maajrwik (spelling?) arent actually dutch but flemish. blame the belgians.
Dejan Kalinic
Roar Guru
It's funny that. The best way to break down a defensive team is by waiting.. It could have so easily been a failed campaign. Real worried about Argentina defence - conceded horror goal against South Korea and the way Mexican Javier Hernandez turned in the box with his back to goal was so simple and proved so fruitful to score. A 22-year-old doing that to an experienced defence..
whiskeymac
Guest
this is an interesting and sort of related article: http://www.guardian.co.uk/football/blog/2010/jun/29/world-cup-letter-from-netherlands the duch a bit miffed by the boring staidness of their gameplan.... as for the Argies - i think they need to attack because their backline is, supposedy, slow and old. very experieced but i wld think susceptible tot he energetic and pacy germans. will be a great game to watch unfold. iwld also be worried if maradonna was changing anything - however if it was his backroom staff, say Billardo, then fair enough. the fatman just needs to gee up his boys, steal the headlines and leave the brains to someone else =)
Dejan Kalinic
Roar Guru
It's funny you say Argentina and Germany can't go negative, because there has been stories Maradona is considering a change in formation. He currently applies what looks like a 4-1-2-1-2 but could revert to a 4-4-2 for the German clash, the formation which beat the Germans either earlier this year, or late last. Brazil is naturally attacking and they create good chances, which have been taken. As for the Dutch, well, we'll see if they change their game - maybe if they are forced to by going a goal down?
Dejan Kalinic
Roar Guru
I was surprised Japan didn't want to attack, particularly after its performance against Denmark. Sure, the Danes were chasing the game in the group, but the Japanese looked unbelievably dangerous going forward. They didn't deserve to win against Paraguay. As for your point on defences winning Cups, agree - and Brazil's is the one.
Savvas Tzionis
Guest
There is no doubt that the attacking teams have been rewarded thus far. What worries me is that they may now start to see the finish line and retreat into their shell. I suspect, however, that neither Argentina nor (surprisingly) Germany are able to go negative. Paraguay may stifle Spain somewhat but the result of this game is easiest to predict I suspect. 2-0 to Spain. Netherlands v Brazil is s strange one. Both teams not showing overly attackign football. Netherlands by choice, Brazil because they have not needed to. My dark horse (pardon the pun) is Ghana to defeat Uruguay. I still believe that Ghana has discovered some real resilience as a result of playing in a very tough and varied group. They were unrecognisable against USA.
whiskeymac
Guest
"with only eight teams left, the run of the conservative will end here." i always find that the QFs are the best games ina knockout but that the semis and the finals can be dour affairs because no one wants to lose. didnt brazil say recently they would play a more conservative countering game against the dutch? Japan lost on penalties - that is such a lottery its hardly vindicating they were punished for "consevative" football, they cld just have easily scraped through. And teams like chile, korea and the US also "gone" despite the "positive" outlook. its a fairly well worn out cliche that champio teams however are built on defence. that has not changed. On an obvious point the WC has shown teams who have , for one reason or another, been either negative and defended badly (against the gErmans) or just not been up for it (Italia - Eng -Fra) have become horribly unstuck.