It’s early days but I can’t help sense that the All Blacks are making the same mistakes all over again leading into next year’s World Cup.
Here’s a couple of reasons why:
Firstly, the signing of Sonny Bill Williams. Although it doesn’t guarantee his inclusion in the World Cup Squad, not selecting him would be an expensive mistake.
Secondly, Graham Henry’s selections are still erratic at best and he just can’t seem to make up his mind. The rotation policy was supposed to be dead and buried but it appears to be rearing its ugly head again.
Thirdly, their experiment with converting players into unfamiliar positions is a strange one indeed.
Fourthly, the NZRFU has just announced a huge bonus for all players involved in winning the World Cup. Just what they need, some added pressure!
Last but not least is that the timing of the World Cup for some players may not be favourable. Players like Tony Woodcock, Kevin Mealamu, Brad Thorn, Ali Williams, Richie McCaw, Dan Carter, Joe Rokocoko, Sitiveni Sivivatu, Conrad Smith and Mils Muliaina are a handful of players that might be past their best by the time of the World Cup.
Unfortunately, they make up a core group of players deemed necessary to win the World Cup. An interesting dilemma for the coaching panel nonetheless.
So here’s my prediction: a South Africa v France final in the 2011 Rugby World Cup.
Short-Blind.
Guest
As a Wallabies fan I hate the circus around SBW (Mundine factor!). Notwithstanding I have nightmares about SBW playing 12 standing in tackles and offloading to Robococo, Jane, Dagg, Smith etc. Henry is no mans fool and his courting of this option could win him the world cup.
Mr Saunders
Roar Guru
... And so it goes that SA announce their fitness schedule for the top Boks.
Stash
Guest
Absolutely no problem signing Sonny Bill Williams - any other national team would be stoked to have the option on that one. This is not Henry settling on 2 teams and rotating them for rest vs game time type of situation that we encountered earlier. It seems to me that Henry is trying to find a core team that can be played at one time (which you cant do with 2 teams) which is why he is picking players that can play in multiple positions. New Zealand injuries, particularly in World Cups have meant that seasoned players have been shifted to foreign positions - with not exactly gleaming results. $100,000 bonus is small pickings for a professional sportsman isn't it? But quite nice motivation - can't see that being pressure (unless your really, really broke and need the cash). Experience is needed on the field - but there is always a problem of having too many players with use by stickers well past the expiry date. But the injection of the youth players seen in selection this year has infused the team with a nicely balanced mix.
Sylvester
Guest
"I was never super impressed with Conrad smith." Really? I think he's been close to the best centre in the world for the past two seasons. He's just underrated because he's not a big, side-stepping colussus and lacks genuine pace.
Sylvester
Guest
I agree with Mr Saunders. Most of the positional changes have been successful. Also, most of the so-called "trialing" has been forced by injuries.
katzilla
Roar Guru
You must be South African, No Kiwi would be that arrogant to think that. And we're an arrogant bunch.
Ben J
Guest
NZ must be the overwhelming favourites to win 2011 RWC, they have the best coach in Graham Henry, an astute manager of men, fine players and a work ethic second to none. Combine that with hometown advantage and a nation that will not accept anything less than victory over the Boks in the two home games this year will result in an unstoppable black machine rolling over the geen pretenders.
Mr Saunders
Roar Guru
If you examine Henry's selections over the past two seasons, a core features in basically every game. Only players on the periphery are occassionally swapped, and only then against non-3N teams. Cory Jane's transfer to the wing isn't a big deal a) because it has been successful, and b) most back three players can interchange. Likewise Carter and Donald. Their switching was worth a punt, and Mitchell also played Carter at 12. Also, I'm sure Read played 8 at junior level? I think Kahui was played on the wing just to give him Test level experience. Afoa hasn't played hooker yet, so to be fair there are no real examples of anything overly odd, rather the ocasional gamble to see if something different is workable.
katzilla
Roar Guru
The only thing more insane would be if Dagg and Mills were injured and he just left Jane at home when hes clearly our best fullback. Then he'd leave and take up a job coaching Australia and they'd think hes the Bee Knees when clearly...............................he aint.
brad
Guest
I will only start to worry when Henry tries to play any one of Dagg, Jane or Mills at 13!
Sam Taulelei
Roar Guru
Nathan I may be missing something but doesn't every coach have a "vision" of how they want their team to play and then pick the players best suited to carrying out that gameplan. Certainly the All Black coaches knew how they wanted to play the game in 1987 and selected the squad accordingly. Laurie Mains did the same in 1995 and John Mitchell in 2003. Graham Henry isn't alone among his peers either in this regard, eg John Smit is selected for his captaincy rather than him being the best tighthead prop in SA. If you think Henry has gone through a lot of players check out how many Mains went through from 1992-94. If the personnel doesn't exist then you have to be pragmatic and devise a gameplan that makes the most of the players talents at your disposal. Ironically Henry was criticised in 2008 for not rotating players to develop more depth as he selected the same team for the majority of tests that season. That season the All Blacks were noted for their resilience more than their brilliance in attack. In 2009 injuries forced many changes and there was a noticeable drop in ability with the replacements who struggled to impose themselves at test level. This year there have been injuries as well and the quality of the replacements won’t be tested until they play in the Tri Nations however Henry believes he has devised a strategy that will bring them success against the Boks this year and hopefully next year. The non selection of certain players that are highly regarded by the public is nothing new, I remember in the early 1990's everyone was screaming for Greg Cooper to be the All Black fullback including Otago coach Laurie Mains. Then after he was picked, it was evident that he couldn't make the step up at test level and he was surpassed by his younger brother Matthew. However I'm with OJ I just want us to beat the Boks this weekend and next weekend. Everything else is superfluous.
johnny-boy
Guest
Hey - stop trying to talk us up. Our only hope is being the underdogs.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
No offence, but I can't believe there are people who think Test match rugby is as simple as choosing the best player in each position. The key to Test match rugby is finding the best team not the best collection of players.
Nathan
Roar Pro
Perhaps the irony is that this article might be a good omen for the AB's.
johnny-boy
Guest
2 of the biggest mistakes in world rugby are underestimating the All Blacks and overestimating the Boks. Oh and another one - thinking you can't win without huge backs
jacko
Guest
The fact that the all blacks arent confidently cleaning up all and sundry has me worried that they'll finally stop choking on susie's special stew and win it next year. To me its seems that the last two world cups they were very very confident a year out from each of those - and then did a norman when it came to getting it together. As they dont seem super condifdent a year out this time I'm concerned as a wallabies supporter that will click into high gear next year .....
Nathan
Roar Pro
Thanks ds and you are probably right. It wasn't until PB wrote his piece that I realised what the problem was and hadn't fully realised it myself. Often it doesn't always appear that obvious at first glance. Having previously been a fan of Graham Henry I have recently begun to question his selection policy. It begins to make more sense now. He seems to have his vision or playing style then selects accordingly, hence the number of discards and players in unfamiliar postions. I'm not convinced this is the best approach however, and I am surprised he's adopted it if that's the case.
Nathan
Roar Pro
Thanks Brett. Have summarised some of these points above. Like PB mentioned, perhaps my main issue is that Graham Henry tends to have a vision or a playing style and then selects accordingly. It's an outside in, rather than an inside out approach ie perhaps just select the best players in their respected positions, have faith in them and allow the team to grow. If someone loses form or gets injured then simply select the next best player in his position. He spends waaaaay too much time trying to find the team he thinks will meet his vision or playing style and the opportunity cost is that too many players are being used in the process. Often the best players in their position are overlooked and/or he shifts players to unfamiliar positions to try and make it fit.
Nathan
Roar Pro
Agree, you want the hardened core and the players mentioned are that but perhaps 1 or 2 will be struggling by then. Will be interesting to see how much of this core group they retain. 'He is making the same old mistakes by getting excited about players who “could” fit his “vision” of how the All Blacks “should” play – rather than just picking the best players in each position and working off that.' - Couldn't agree more...he is 'overthinking' it. Don't agree with his 'select and hope' policy that means players will be cast aside if they don't fit into his playing style or vision either.
Nathan
Roar Pro
First of all I am not a fan of the Sonny Bill Williams signing and think the money could have been better spent elsewhere. Perhaps could have shown more faith in the players coming through the ranks. Still, he will be exciting to watch nonetheless. It's difficult to ever truly assess how the All Blacks are going because of the number of changes each week. From memory I think there were 7 changes from the side that played Wales in the 1st test to the side that played Wales in the 2nd test. I presume there will be a few more changes to the side announced to play South Africa next week. Hardly ideal preparation going into a test match against the Springboks. I understand the reason for trialing players but at what cost? The All Blacks now have 2 or 3 sides that are of similiar strength but the opportunity cost of this is that they have perhaps 'watered down' the strength of their starting XV. Players that have been converted or have played in unfamiliar positions recently include Cory Jane to the RW, John Afoa to hooker, Keiran Read to 8, Richard Kahui on the wing, Joe Rokocoko to RW, Stephen Donald to 12, Daniel Carter to 12, Adam Thompson to 7...etc. Can't name them all and appreciate a lot were due to injury but perhaps better to select the next best player in that position.