South Africa’s Bakkies Botha, left, Victor Matfield and Bismarck du Plessis celebrate winning the Tri Nations Cup after defeating New Zealand in the Tri Nations International rugby match, Waikato Stadium, Hamilton, New Zealand, Saturday, Sept. 12, 2009. (AP Photo/NZPA, David Rowland)
It’s hard to get around the probability that next Saturday’s Test between the All Blacks and the Springboks at Eden Park will define the outcome of the 2010 Tri Nations.
If the Springboks win, as the bookmakers (who put their money where their mouth is) say, then the likelihood is that they will win back-to-back Tri Nations tournaments in 2009 and 2010.
Last season the Springboks beat the All Blacks in three successive Tests, which set them up for their third Tri Nations title, and their first since 2004.
Chris Laidlaw, a former All Black great and now a writer and broadcaster of distinction about rugby, says of the current Springboks: “They have an almost perfect blend of strength, bulk, pace and guile… The Springboks have adapted to the new rule interpretations surprisingly well and they have no hang-ups about having to entertain the punters as well as win.”
He also argues that the Springboks are ‘better in almost every respect’ from the team that won the 2007 Rugby World Cup. I’d agree with this and his comments about the strength of this present Springboks side. It is one of South Africa’s greatest teams.
A number of the important members of the RWC 2007 side including the captain John Smit, Bakkies Botha, Victor Matfield and Bryan Habana are still playing. Just as importantly, in my opinion, the Springboks have discovered a kicking number 10, Morne Steyn, who can release the backs if needed but who plays the position game the Springboks love to play.
The Springboks always are a much stronger side when they have a good kicking number 10. This style suits their tradition of producing huge, athletic and fast forwards who run brilliantly from broken play.
Steyn also kicks goals from everywhere. In his 15 Tests he has kicked 23 conversions, 37 penalties and 5 dropped goals. Dan Carter in 69 Tests has kicked 181 conversions, 184 penalties, 2 drop goals. Matt Giteau in 81 Tests has 89 conversions, 90 penalties, 4 drop goals.
Steyn came into Test rugby with the ruck interpretations that rewarded the defensive team when it got its hands on the ball. He was able to convert the big penalty rate gained by the tough tackling Springboks into victories for his side. The value of his kicking game is highlighted by the higher number of penalties kicked over conversions (unlike Carter and Giteau), and the significant number of dropped goals he has kicked in his short Test career.
If the All Blacks and the Wallabies can play accurately and positively, and not give up penalties from the high pressure game inflicted on them by the Springboks, they have a chance to defeat the current champions.
The Wallabies did this, in fact, last season at Brisbane when they trounced the Springboks. The Queensland Reds did the same thing, as well, to the Bulls this season. Lang Park is a perfect surface for running rugby and the Wallabies will be playing the Springboks in their first 2010 Tri Nations Test after the Springboks will have had two successive weekends of Tests against the All Blacks.
The Wallabies will never have a better chance of defeating this Springboks side. Moreover, the Springboks have not won against the Wallabies at Brisbane since 1971.
A win at Brisbane, though, will be much easier or even possible if the All Blacks can win at least one of the first two Tests against the Springboks. There is a faint hope for them in the fact that last year they played without Daniel Carter, and the side itself seems to be stronger than last year’s team.
The new interpretations also favour the high-octane game the All Blacks are trying to develop. The question for them is whether they pay this game and not make mistakes at the break-down or with intercept passes that allowed the Springboks to dominate them last year.
The All Blacks have some history on their side. The last time they lost at Eden Park was in 1994. They have won 20 Tests there in a row making the ground something of a fortress for New Zealand rugby.
If any team can overwhelm that fortress it is the current Springboks. This is one of the great Springboks sides which has achieved that enviable habit, the habit of winning.
There is another intriguing aspect to all of this, and this is how the 2010 Tri Nations results will play out for next year’s World Cup tournament.
In the 1998 Tri Nations, the year before the World Cup in England won by the Wallabies, Australia finished 2, South Africa 1, New Zealand 3.
In 2002, the year before the World Cup in Australia won by England with Australia in the final, New Zealand finished 1, Australia 2, South Africa 3.
In 2006, the year before the World Cup in France won by the Springboks, New Zealand finished 1, Australia 2, South Africa 3.
Is there a pattern here? And does that pattern indicate that if a team wants to win the World Cup it should not win the Tri Nations the year before?
Personally, I believe that this sample is far too small for a rule to be made from all of this. We need about five or six more World Cup tournaments before we can start establishing patterns about when teams should peak.
What we do know is the 2011 RWC will be held in New Zealand.
This means that someone has to defeat the All Blacks for that side not to win the tournament. We also know that it is tough to defeat the All Blacks in New Zealand. The Wallabies and the Springboks will need to get all the practice at achieving this they can in the next two Tri Nations tournaments.
Which brings us back to Eden Park next Saturday night and its must-win aspect for the All Blacks and the Springboks.
Brett McKay
Guest
I had to chuckle when this column of Spiro's appeared in the Features section. Oh, what a difference three weeks makes...
dunc
Guest
Spiro Sunday afternoon - time to re-write a new piece with new insights or do you still think the Boks are TN favourites? Yes you can argue that the Boks looked tired - but they were also out-smarted and Richie and the boys will take alot from that!
johno
Guest
Travel factor. Most of the SA teams played the Aus part of the tour towards the end of their tour
Lee
Guest
Damn predictive cell phone, in the afternoon becomes insatiable afternoon, just because my fingers are too pudgy for the touch screen!! Cheers ms.
Mr Saunders
Roar Guru
Good for you, sounds like a good'un. I can't wait. Good luck with the QF, btw.
Lee
Guest
Can't wait for the weekend, playing in a quarter final game insatiable afternoon, then straight to Eden park after for the game, and to cap it off got my tickets for the bok games at the world cup next year yesterday, so a good week for rugby.
Mr Saunders
Roar Guru
That's true, the sides were definitely not one or two key players short, but Bob did say a couple and the side versus the Tigers did have a strong Springbok spine. Anyway, a moot point in the grand scheme of things, eh. There's bigger and better things at stake and the game is nearly afoot.
Socboy
Guest
What about the selective reading of posts Lee, Don't come in here having a go at me when quiter clearly you have not been reading the posts Saunders has been making. Saunders also states that the Boks have been dominant over the Abs the Last two seasons. Actually no the haven't 2008 tells a completely different story but of course yes lets forget that almighty stuff up by Saunders and attack Socboy. While South Africa may have a better result than other nations they are still on the worng side of the ledger, so While they have proved a challenge the All Blacks have managed more often than not to repel the Bok challenge. Again noone not even I have ever debated 2009 so you can well and truly leave that behind. Short and simple South Africa lose in NZ both games they will lose much of the Hype and ascendancy that you say they have. Win and the will confirm they are a very good side.
Lee
Guest
I'm not trying to start ananything arguement MS, I am just pointing out the error in Bobs post, where he said "lacked a couple of key test players", I would class Smit, Matfield, Botha, Du Preez, Habana, Fourie, De Villiers, Burger, Spies, Brussow and Morne Steyn as key players, and thats more than a couple. The Boks fielded a week side in both games but still should have won, they didn't and fair play to Leceister and Saracens for taking their chances, fronting up and beating the Boks - no one can take that away from them. They are club sides who beat a national side. Well done. Again, I just want to draw attention to the fact that unlike what Bob said above, this was not one or two key players short of the Boks first team.
Mr Saunders
Roar Guru
I'm not looking to start one of those 'SA aren't as good as they think' arguments, Lee, but at the risk of sounding pedantic the Leiseter Tigers side was far from first string, and a lot of the SA players involved in that specific match were cemented SA players (albeit some more peripheral than others): Ndungane, Olivier, Nokwe, Pienaar, Steenkamp, Ralepelle, Du Plessis, Rossouw, Bekker and Brussow. Just saying.
Lee
Guest
Here is the team that played against the Leicester Tigers last year, the names in brackets are the players that played in the Boks win against the ABs in Hamilton(i.e. first team), about 6 weeks prior(when different): 15 Earl Rose(Francois Steyn) 14 Odwa Ndungane 13 Juan de Jongh(Jacque Fourie) 12 Wynand Olivier(Jean De villiers) 11 Jongi Nokwe(Brian Habana) 10 Ruan Pienaar(morne Steyn) 1 Gurthro Steenkamp(Tendai Mtawarira) 2 Chiliboy Ralepelle (captain)(Bismark Du Plessis) 3 Jannie du Plessis(John Smit) 4 Danie Rossouw(Bakkies Botha) 5 Andries Bekker(Victor Matfield) 6 Heinrich Brüssow 7 Dewald Potgieter(Schalk Burger) 8 Ashley Johnson(Piere Spies) 9 Heini Adams(Fourie Du Preez) Now heres the team that played against Saracens, with the players who played against France th eprevious weekend in brackets, where different: 15 FB Earl Rose (Zane Kirchener) 14 W Odwa Ndungane (JP Pieterson) 13 C Juan de Jongh (Jacque Fourie) 12 C Wynand Olivier (Adi Jacobs) 11 W Jongi Nokwe (Habana) 10 FH Ruan Pienaar (Morne Steyn) 9 SH Heini Adams (Fourie Du Preez) 1 P Heinke Van der Merwe (Tendai Mtawarira) 2 H Adriaan Strauss (Bismarck Du PLessis) 3 P CJ van der Linde (John Smit) 4 L Alistair Hargreaves (Bakkies Botha) 5 L Andries Bekker (Victor Matfield) 6 F Jean Deysel (Schalk Burger) 7 F Dewald Potgieter (Heinrich Brussow) 8 N8 Ashley Johnson (Ryan Kankowski) So against the Tigers, the team only contained 2 players from the team that played in the most previous test, and the 15 that played against Saracens was 100% different from teh 15 that started against France. So to say "admittedly they fielded a squad against those clubs that lacked a couple of key test players, only a couple mind you" is blatantly incorrect. I will admit that while this Bok team is good, they are not as great as some believe(losing to France and Ireland show that). However, you ruin your point by making stuff up.
bob
Guest
And yet... not so many months ago the Boks were defeated and battered by Leicester Tigers and a week later by London Sarries... so we know that when their muscle is met and matched, they don't have a plan B. Admittedly they are probably the best test side in the world at present, and admittedly they fielded a squad against those clubs that lacked a couple of key test players, only a couple mind you, but none-the-less you can observe that the mighty Boks are in fact not quite as good as they would have the world believe. The question is whether the same is true for the Ab's... neither side completely convinces. There is a niggle of doubt that will only be addressed in the RWC nect year.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
I can't be bothered arguing about the All Blacks' one game advantage over the Springboks, but when you start saying that the Boks were humiliated in a match that never took place (along with a host of other factual errors) and won't even temper that in subsequent replies, then I don't know where you get off claiming that others can never be wrong.
Lee
Guest
Whats with the miss quoting, and then getting angry thing Socboy... In the first quote you attached from MS, it says: “It’s all well and good being ranked number 1 in the world and having the measure of other sides, but as OJ points out, Graham Henry has struggled with SA much more than any other national side since 2004.” No where in that does he say the Boks have been better than the ABs since 2004, he says that Graham Henry has struggled with th eBoks more than any other side i.e. if you look at the results over the last 10 years the Boks have the best win/loss ratio agaisnt the ABs than any other side - again not saying it is a positive win loss ratio just that it is better than any other side.
Socboy
Guest
One result and one venue wrong, Hey don't worry about the 13 I got right now OJ of course that would be far to hard for you to accept.
Socboy
Guest
It's unbelievable everything is there to be read I have no qualms in quoting what you said Saunders
nicksa
Guest
socboy all questions will be answered this tri-nations
Mr Saunders
Roar Guru
Touche. That's a match winner all right.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
At least I know where the games were played and what the result was.
dunc
Guest
dear ivan nel dont worry as a Kiwi I think that Spies and Bakkies are awesome. bring on the rough and tumble. And look out for Richie Revenge McCaw!