It’s difficult to win the World Cup. An obvious statement, but facts back it up. Out of eighteen Finals since 1930, there have only been eight winners. Only 81 nations (39 per cent) out of 208 FIFA members have ever qualified. Therefore 61 per cent of the planet has dipped out.
Do appearances help? Generally not looking at the statistics.
By my calculations, eighteen countries have made seven or more appearances in the finals and not won. Even Spain, England, and France have struggled, with thirteen appearances and one win each. Both France and England’s win was on home soil.
So are we “dreaming” about ever winning a World Cup? If so, will we have to wait for the thirteenth appearance like Spain?
Maybe though there is a chance. It’s called home town advantage. The same as England in 1966 and France in 1998.
That’s, of course, if we get the 2022 World Cup. Regardless. I feel we need that length of time to let the football development programs filter through.
Looking at the appearances a little further, all is not lost. As we saw with Uruguay this World Cup, luck and the luck of the draw can play a part. Portugal (2006) with four appearances, Croatia (1998) three appearances and Turkey(2002) two appearances all made the semi-finals.
There are some interesting dynamics taking place at the top of world football. Particularly at club level. We saw dummy spits from the French and an inept display from Italy.
The pressure to perform at club level, particularly in the Champions league, is becoming greater. The professionalism and pressure of top class club football is now greater than the World Cup.
Any country from now on that is technically sound and can mould an International “club” team with mental fortitude and a fighting spirit is in with a shout.
The World Cup, in some senses, is an amateur circus run by the circus ringmaster. Sometimes the balancing elephant on the drum falls on the ringmaster, other times there’s a perfect triple somersault.
sheek
Guest
Gee, the sages on this post are mind-boggling. Mind telling me who's going to win the Melbourne Cup this year so I can make a killing? Poor old Australian football (soccer) should just down now, since the sages have spoken - they are doomed! Geez, where do they get these people..........
theman
Guest
'Portugal (2006) with four appearances, Croatia (1998) three appearances and Turkey(2002) two appearances all made the semi-finals.' The 2006 Portguese side had a great team, and although not making many appearances have made semi-finals appearances before, i believe in 1966 with eusebio. Croatia 1998 had remnants of the last Yugoslavian Golden generation im talking Suker, Boban Prosinecki, all world class players that could have won the world cup if they were still that great Yugoslav side. Turkey's performance at the 2002 world cup was exceptional, they could have beaten world champions then Brazil in the group stage and were unlucky not to do so at some points. The real reason why Australia will never win a world cup is because we keep lying to ourselves that we are a 'great sporting nation', surely our Olympic athletes and Cricket team dominate at the world level. The truth is to win a world cup requires diligence, an excellent youth system, training and also the support of an entire nation. This is what is lacking in Australia footballing culture.
Matt Haze
Guest
Just a quick point. Spain's victory was the first European win of a world cup outside Europe. There's evidence to suggest that the likes of Spain, Portugal and Germany are widening the gap between the old and new world. Australia will be lucky to make the quarter finals in any of the next 6 world cups!
Michael
Guest
And since the formation of the English premier league only 4 teams have won it out of 44. (9%) Look at how many teams enter the FA Cup each season. There is no need to be in a competition simply to win it. Everyone is obsessed with winning competition, people must remember that success is only relative to expectation.
David V.
Guest
You forget that aside from a rich football tradition, Uruguay is one of the better-off places in Latin America. Quality of life and social security is certainly higher for the average citizen there than Brazil.
David V.
Guest
Ummm these players are likely to be gone most of them anyway by 2014.
Davstar
Guest
We have produced Simic, Vidkua, Cahill, Kewell, Johnson, Neill, etc and our best is yet to come ;)
Towser
Guest
Interesting explains a bit more. Needs a bit more understanding of individual countries.
Art Sapphire
Guest
Towser - Uruguay only has a population of 3.5 million and football is their identity whick accounts for their success. Looking at the FIFA page I noticed that a higher percantage of the population play the game in countries like Uruguay and Argentina, than say in Australia, but fewer are registered. Also the Registered player list will take into account males and females. Which is why in Norway 8% of the population is a registered footballer.
MVDave
Guest
Certainly difficult to see Australia winning the WC in the next 20 years or so but (as said above) if we can host it that will be our best chance (in my lifetime) to at least get to the last 4 (think South Korea 2002). Apart from winning it hosting has to be next in line...Lets Play 2022!! What an opportunity for the Socceroos vs England at the MCG, opening game 2022 WC...doesnt get any bigger!
Towser
Guest
Seems hosting does help. Keep our fingers crossed for 2022. Worth also looking at number of players also to try & find answers. Although must admit it further confused the issue for me as some countries have bugar all players,but still do well. Uruguay has 41800 registered players for instance a tenth of Australias. http://www.fifa.com/worldfootball/bigcount/registeredplayers.html Bit dated but cant find a more recent one.
David V.
Guest
Now that was a horribly disorganised World Cup. Fancy France turning up then leaving when they saw their schedule!
Art Sapphire
Guest
Tower - you should have asked Paul before he retired from official World Cup duties. Anyway, our best ever chance of ever winning the thing is when we get to host it. Uruguay, Italy, England, Germany, Argentina, France have all World Cups as host nation. Which should makes Brazil a certainty to win in 2014. Can't see them repeating 1950 catastrophe.
Roger
Guest
To be honest, at any World Cup, most teams probably have a chance at winning the Cup. If you think about it, 'on the day', Australia can beat any country in the world. So, you would need all the stars to align for the World Cup (i.e. a bit of luck, some key decisions going your way, and some decent finishing) and they'd be lifting the trophy ;) But of course, the chances of that in the near future are incredibly small.
David V.
Guest
Belgium? Have you seen what they've produced recently? Fellaini, Defour, Vermaelen, Hazard... their best is yet to come. They've also had to overhaul their youth systems and they might be there come 2014.
mahony
Guest
Maybe (and it is only a maybe, because I cannot read the future) Australia will never win a world cup. Fortunately for me there is no relationship between Australia winning a world cup and my enjoyment of the tournament as desire for Australia to compete.
mahony
Guest
I agree with the above.
mahony
Guest
Your opinion mokes too much sense for this forum. Please keep it to yourself.
Towser
Guest
That is the point of the observation with Belgium. You can argue football has reached a brick wall in some European countries given their number of appearances.
Roger
Guest
Agree, never say never. We most certainly will not win in the next 20 years, but in time, who knows. Look at how far we've come in the last 5 years. And comparing us to countries like Belgium is like comparing apples with oranges because it is a growing game here, and not so much there.