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New Zealand All Blacks' Jerome Kaino. AP Photo/NZPA, Ross Setford
I placed a large sum of money on South Africa or France to win the 2007 World Cup and on New Zealand to choke again. My reasons were simple: South Africa rested their players at the right time, we had a settled starting 15, and New Zealand had a different 15 every second game.
The so called B team sometimes played better than the A team.
Don’t get me wrong, Graham Henry is a very shrewd coach. But he made some wrong calls in 2007. Resting the All Black’s during the Super 14 was a stroke of luck for Jake White, in my opinion.
Before the Tri-Nations opener this year I had a brainstorm by myself and decided to bet big on New Zealand to win this year’s Tri-nations. Why?
Simple. South Africa lost the services of Fourie du Preez, Bismark du Plessis, Frans Steyn, Heinrich Brussouw and Juan Smith.
Coupled with this, they moved an out of form Jean de Villiers to wing and they picked the tried and failed combination of Olivier and Fourie at centre. Why this combination fails every time is a mystery to me, but a known fact.
On top of all these problems, the coach goes and he picks an out of shape Ricky January.
Now, take all that and combine it with an overconfident Bok team and a backs against the wall New Zealand side and you have a recipe for Bok disaster.
To top it off, you had the end of year tour disaster for the Springboks. Jake White has always been a big believer in defence and New Zealand had outstanding defence during the end of year tour. I don’t remember a single try against them during that tour.
Now, if you look very closely at the All Black team, you will see that Henry picked a very potent team.
Kevin Mealamu is the best Hooker and has been the best for a long time.
Why Henry picks Andrew Hore in front of this man is a mystery to me. Then Brad Thorn, what a good player. The one guy you want in your pack to smash and clean those rucks. I must admit I rated Whitelock higher than Tom Donnelly, but he did well on the day.
The loose trio combination is almost perfect. In Kieran Read they found the Juan Smith of New Zealand. Strong, uncompromising and hard as nails. Then you have Jerome Kaino, an athlete like Pierre Spies. They both tend to shine when on the front foot.
The backline is world class and Carter returned to form by playing a good season Super 14 without any injuries. The stint he had in France wasn’t that great for the All Black’s last year.
I believe Nonu/Smith is the best combination available and Mils Muliaina always plays his heart out for the black jersey. On the wing, New Zealand have always been blessed with abundant talent and I don’t see a shortage of good wingers any time soon.
So why am I betting on New Zealand to win the World Cup in 2011? ( I must add, I will only bet if Carter is fit and ready and I won’t bet against the All Black’s next year)
Realistically speaking, only five teams have the firepower to win the World Cup in 2011. The All Blacks, Springboks, Australia, England and the French.
Now, if we remove the teams that haven’t won a single game in New Zealand since 2007, you are left with South Africa and France.
I’m not sure how France happen to be in the same pool as New Zealand. I think that it’s very fortunate for the All Blacks, because France is the one team that can knock any team out in the quarters or semi’s.
I don’t see New Zealand losing to the French in the pool stage when the pressure is off, and even if they do, they will go through like England did in the 2007 World Cup.
When you look at the likely outcome of the pool stages, New Zealand will face South Africa in the Semi Final at a ground where South Africa hasn’t won since the 1970s. Of course, this will be the knock out stages, but South Africa will find it extremely difficult to win this one in New Zealand at this ground.
My heart says South Africa, but my brain says differently.
As for the final, think back to 1995. No team, no matter how fantastic will beat New Zealand in the Final in New Zealand.
I don’t care if they are genetically altered freaks of nature, you won’t beat this team in the final. New Zealand, like South Africa in 1995, is too hungry for glory to let this opportunity slip by.
Last but not least, no team has EVER defended the World Cup successfully and history tends to repeat itself. The last time New Zealand won the yellow cup was back in 1987 when it was ALSO hosted in New Zealand.
So for 2011, my money will be riding on the back of the black machine lead by Richard McCaw. Only great captains can lift the coveted trophy and McCaw is certainly a great captain.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.