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Preview of AFL round 20 games (all times local):
FRIDAY, August 13
ESSENDON v COLLINGWOOD at MCG, 7.40pm
Head to head: Essendon 98 Collingwood 119 Drawn 4
Last time: Collingwood 18.12 (120) bt Essendon 8.7 (55) R5 2010, MCG
TAB Sportsbet: Essendon $6.25 Collingwood $1.10
Sportingbet: Essendon $7.25 Collingwood $1.10
Collingwood skipper Nick Maxwell says his side is “miles away” from its optimum, but the Magpies look every bit a premiership side in waiting. They top the ladder, are unbeaten in nine rounds and comprehensively stitched up Geelong last Saturday night. Essendon can produce good bursts, but are equally capable of the flipside, with Carlton easily kicking 10 goals in the final quarter against them last Friday night.
Key: Tackling pressure. The Pies are the masters, particularly in attack, and will know Essendon’s skills fall away when the heat is on. Anzac Day was one-sided and this could be more of the same.
Tip: Collingwood by 52 points.
SATURDAY August 14
CARLTON v RICHMOND at MCG, 2.10pm
Head to head: Carlton 118 Richmond 84 Drawn 2
Last time: Carlton 18.12 (120) bt Richmond 9.10 (64) R1 2010, MCG
TAB Sportsbet: Carlton $1.30 Richmond $3.30
Sportingbet: Carlton $1.30 Richmond $3.60
There’s plenty of incentive on offer here. Carlton can just about secure a finals berth after a prolonged spell of inconsistency, whereas the Tigers can keep their old rival on tenterhooks for another week. The Blues unleashed some scoring power on Essendon and have posted some big scores against Richmond in recent years. This one should be closer than the season opener, but Carlton can ill-afford any late-season upsets.
Key: Alternatives. Who besides Jack Riewoldt can kick a winning score for Richmond? And are there enough small defenders to keep Carlton’s speedy forwards in check for four quarters?
Tip: Carlton by 31 points.
FREMANTLE v SYDNEY at Subiaco Oval, 1.10pm
Head to head: Fremantle 10 Sydney 12
Last time: Fremantle 14.16 (100) bt Sydney 9.9 (63) R9 2010, SCG
TAB Sportsbet: Fremantle $1.55 Sydney $2.35
Sportingbet: Fremantle $1.58 Sydney $2.40
Fremantle’s win over the Swans in May gave the Dockers a full hand of victories in all the major cities before the halfway mark of the season, but their campaign has flagged since. Injuries and a drop in the output of younger players have hurt, although they remain in the hunt for the double chance. A win here will keep the pressure on the Bulldogs or at worst secure a home elimination final. The Swans (seventh) were impressive in beating Hawthorn, but are still one win short with three tough games remaining.
Key: The vast expanses of Subiaco could trouble Sydney, who play their best at the smaller SCG and have not beaten Fremantle in Perth since 1998.
Tip: Fremantle by 16 points.
WESTERN BULLDOGS v GEELONG at Etihad Stadium, 7.10pm
Head to head: Western Bulldogs 55 Geelong 91 Drawn 2
Last time: Geelong 14.12 (96) bt Western Bulldogs 12.10 (82) QF 2010, MCG
TAB Sportsbet: Western Bulldogs $2.25 Geelong $1.60
Sportingbet: Western Bulldogs $2.30 Geelong $1.63
The flu-ridden Bulldogs were not the only ones feeling sickly during the week. Geelong have repeatedly claimed how disappointed they were at being beaten so badly for the hard ball by Collingwood, although coach Mark Thompson has warned against writing off his side. The Bulldogs ground out a tough win over Adelaide last Sunday night under duress and have the skill and speed to trouble the Cats, as they did in round 21 last year.
Key: The Doggies hope to put their ills behind them, but the flu has made its mark, as Brownlow medallist Adam Cooney and ruckman Ben Hudson won’t play.
Tip: Geelong by seven points.
PORT ADELAIDE v WEST COAST at AAMI Stadium, 7.10pm
Head to head: Port Adelaide 14 West Coast 6
Last time: Port Adelaide 13.11 (89) bt West Coast 12.14 (86) R2 2010, Subiaco Oval
TAB Sportsbet: Port Adelaide $1.40 West Coast $2.80
Sportingbet: Port Adelaide $1.41 West Coast $2.95
Three years ago these sides fought out a close qualifying final in Adelaide, which makes the slides they have endured since mystifying. The 2010 version of Port versus the Eagles late in the season will draw only the bravest of souls. West Coast are headed for their first wooden spoon, while Port are in 13th spot and were insipid in a 94-point loss to St Kilda last Sunday. The only interest here is whether West Coast’s Mark LeCras can close the gap in the Coleman Medal race.
Key: The Port cheer squad better use more sticky tape than last week, when the banner ripped prematurely. It’s set to be wet and windy at AAMI Stadium.
Tip: Port Adelaide by 22 points.
SUNDAY, August 15
BRISBANE LIONS v ADELAIDE at Gabba, 1.10pm
Head to head: Brisbane Lions 15 Adelaide 15
Last time: Adelaide 13.15 (93) bt Brisbane Lions 11.15 (81) R9 2010, AAMI Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: Brisbane Lions $1.80 Adelaide $1.95
Sportingbet: Brisbane Lions $1.85 Adelaide $1.97
Jonathan Brown has lifted so many times for the Brisbane Lions over the years, but now it’s a question of how many will lift for him. The powerhouse forward will play his 200th game this weekend – his knee injury permitting – and the Lions will be desperate to repay their inspirational skipper with a win. Brown has booted 40 per cent of the side’s goals since his return a month ago, so the Crows’ focus will be curbing Brisbane’s go-to man, knowing if they keep him to three goals or under they should win.
Key: Adelaide’s late-season renaissance appears to have dried up, but the Crows have at least been in the games the past three weeks. That’s more than Brisbane can claim, aside from last weekend’s win over bottom side West Coast.
Tip: Adelaide by 11 points.
HAWTHORN v MELBOURNE at MCG, 2.10pm
Head to head: Hawthorn 77 Melbourne 74
Last time: Hawthorn 17.15 (117) bt Melbourne 8.13 (61) R1 2010, MCG
TAB Sportsbet: Hawthorn $1.68 Melbourne $2.10
Sportingbet: Hawthorn $1.70 Melbourne $2.18
Back in March, Melbourne coach Dean Bailey just wanted his side to be competitive after they were thrashed by the Hawks. Come Sunday his Demons (10th) have the chance to replace Hawthorn (eighth) in the top half and on form should do so. Three straight wins have revived their aspirations and confidence is surging. The Hawks have dropped their past two games following the round-17 draw with St Kilda. Recent form even prompted a stinging critique from club president Jeff Kennett, which is unlikely to have gone down well in the change room.
Key: Last season Melbourne’s Colin Sylvia turned around his career with a four-goal, 37-disposal haul against Hawthorn. Now he epitomises the Demons’ resurgence.
Tip: Melbourne by 12 points.
NORTH MELBOURNE v ST KILDA at Etihad Stadium, 4.40pm
Head to head: North Melbourne 71 St Kilda 73 Drawn 2
Last time: St Kilda 23.5 (143) bt North Melbourne 6.3 (39) R2 2010, Etihad Stadium
TAB Sportsbet: North Melbourne $3.75 St Kilda $1.25
Sportingbet: North Melbourne $4.25 St Kilda $1.23
St Kilda coach Ross Lyon thought he had found the Saints of old as they crushed Port Adelaide last Sunday. The run and defensive pressure returned and Nick Riewoldt wasn’t the only go-to man as the Saints tallied 23 goals. This is all bad news for North, who have struggled badly against top-four sides all season, notably in round two when they could not score in the first quarter. The ninth-placed Kangaroos thrashed Fremantle (fifth) last Saturday and could move into the eight this round if all goes their way, but a remarkable turnaround is required.
Key: St Kilda have shown a knack of responding on the field whenever off-field issues arise, such as Andrew Lovett’s court case this week.
Tip: St Kilda by 41 points.
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