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Bring on the 2010 AFL Finals!

30th August, 2010
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30th August, 2010
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St Kilda's Justin Koschitzke and Collingwood's Darren Jolly contest the throw-in during the AFL Round 16 match between the Collingwood Magpies and the St Kilda Saints at the MCG, Melbourne.

St Kilda's Justin Koschitzke and Collingwood's Darren Jolly contest the throw-in during the AFL Round 16 match between the Collingwood Magpies and the St Kilda Saints at the MCG, Melbourne.

September doesn’t officially start until tomorrow, but you can already feel it looking forward to the big games this weekend. The finals are almost here and this year’s series is shaping up to be a cracker.

Right now, there is no clear-cut standout as far as the premiership is concerned. The bookies have Geelong as favourites. Collingwood have had a huge year. St Kilda can’t be ruled out.

With the Western Bulldogs rounding out the top four, we may even see a lower-ranked side make it to preliminary final weekend. There are many possibilities.

Looking at the eight teams to make it this far, all indications are we’re set for a very intriguing month.

Collingwood
The Pies were deserving minor premiers, but attention now turns to whether they can back that up with success in September. With so much improvement this year – thanks to the addition of Luke Ball and Darren Jolly, and the progress of players like Sharrod Wellingham – it’s easy to see them going further than last year, when they lost their prelim.

The most pressing concern for the side, however, is goal kicking. The Pies were one of only two teams this season to score more behinds than goals (Adelaide was the other).

Goal kicking has been a huge talking point after both of the last two grand finals, and it basically lost Collingwood their game on Saturday against Hawthorn, so this will be an area of some debate.

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The campaign begins against the Western Bulldogs, which should set up a week off and a preliminary final berth. In that prelim, the Pies are likely to face either Geelong or St Kilda.

Best case scenario: Premiership.

Geelong
After yet another strong season, the Cats will be pleased with where they are at. Improvement this year has come from the emergence of Travis Varcoe as arguably an elite player, the arrival of James Podsiadly (who will miss this week through suspension) and changes to the defensive set-up.

One concern is the side’s tendency to over-handball – something which resurfaced again over the weekend in an ugly first half against West Coast – especially when the pressure is on.

Then there’s the juggling of ruck and key position players, something that, alarmingly, the club are yet to get on top of. At least one of Podsiadly, Cam Mooney, Tom Hawkins, Mark Blake and Tom Lonergan will have to be cut.

The finals begin for the Cats on Friday night against St Kilda, who beat them in their last meeting. A win would set up a preliminary final presumably against a side from outside the top three, but a loss will set up a horror draw, potentially giving them Hawthorn and Collingwood in consecutive weeks.

Best case scenario: Premiership.

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St Kilda
The Saints are not a team to write off at this point. Flying under the radar, the motivation of a losing grand final, getting key players back right on the eve of finals – there’s actually quite a bit of last year’s premiers about this year’s St Kilda.

Whether this year’s St Kilda can match the same team of last year, however, is up in the air. In just one season, the Saints’ percentage has dropped from 155 to 121, which has happened because defenders have been left exposed more and the attack has been far less potent (even accounting for Nick Riewoldt’s injury).

Riewoldt and Justin Koschitzke, who were in some red-hot form prior to Saturday’s loss to Adelaide, will need to deliver on the big stage.

The scenario for the Saints is the same as it is for the Cats. Winning this week will set them up, losing could spell disaster.

Best case scenario: Premiership.

Western Bulldogs
It’s hardly been a perfect year for the Dogs. It’s practically been all downhill since the NAB Cup win in March, with plenty going wrong: key players have dropped off, they haven’t beaten one of their fellow top four sides, et al.

Now, they enter September without Adam Cooney and Dale Morris because of injury, with further concerns surrounding the likes of Shaun Higgins and Ryan Griffen.

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Their premiership potential was shown in that NAB Cup victory and their strong preliminary final showing last year, and if they can tap in to that form they’ll still be in with a shot.

We’ll find out on Saturday night, when the Dogs face the Pies, a loss ensuring either Sydney or Carlton next week.

Best case scenario: Not going out in straight sets, restoring pride in the prelim.

Sydney
Paul Roos has done quite well in his final season as coach, especially considering the outlook at the end of last year and injuries throughout the season to key players like Daniel Bradshaw. The Swans have also found form at the right time, winning their last four games by an average of five and a half goals.

Playing at ANZ Stadium this week may lessen the Swans’ home ground advantage though, considering they’ve lost their last five games at the venue.

This time around they’ll face Carlton. A win will see them face the loser of Collingwood and the Dogs.

Best case scenario: Making it to preliminary final weekend.

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Fremantle
Freo made a dream start to the season, yet injuries got in the way of a fairytale top four finish. Last weekend the Dockers were almost at full-strength, with Aaron Sandilands – such a huge part of his side’s success this year – leading the way in a hard-fought win over the Blues.

There’s a lot of youth in this Dockers side, youth that’s unexposed to finals footy, so that’s one thing that may create an issue this weekend and beyond.

They’ve got Hawthorn on Saturday afternoon, at home, and a win would set up a clash with either Geelong or St Kilda.

Best case scenario: Making it to week two and testing Geelong or St Kilda.

Hawthorn
The 2008 premiers may be a bit of a wildcard in this year’s finals series. When the Hawks are up they are really up, and their Round 22 win over Collingwood can’t hurt the side’s confidence, so it’s hard to say they won’t have an impact.

The Hawks will get a genuine test this week though, as there has to be doubt over their ability to travel. They lost both of their games outside of Victoria and Tasmania this season, including one at Subiaco against West Coast.

Subiaco is, of course, the venue for their clash this week against Fremantle.

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Best case scenario: Making it to week two and testing Geelong or St Kilda.

Carlton
Depending on who you listen to, the Blues (suddenly without Brendan Fevola and Nick Stevens) have either over-performed or under-performed this season. Either way, making it to the finals is still an achievement and there has been some decent scalps (beating Geelong and St Kilda) along the way.

Going into finals with two consecutive losses to other finals-bound teams won’t be great for the side’s confidence. Eddie Betts only has seven goals from his past eight games.

However if they can claim a win in Sydney, it’s either the Pies or Dogs back in Melbourne a week later.

Best case scenario: Beating Sydney and making it to week two.

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