Super Rugby 2011: Aussie teams chances

you can blame the SA administrators for that bizarre rule - they were worried that no SA teams would make the finals hence all their whining about leaving the comp...

Not so sure about that either - SA's seem to love derby matches and lower ranked super teams quite often beat higher teams in the Currie cup

Not sure where you're getting your recruiting news from but the highlanders have recruited heavily and with some quality too - theyve always had a solid forward core but for next year they have added the best performed minor players from the ITM cup so I expect them to perform better than this year.

Aaaah you must be a Canterbury Supporter, a touchy one at that. I concede that in the previous tri nations that the Bulls and Stormers made up more of the Boks than the Crusaders did for the All Blacks but I am not just referring to the last 1 or 2 years, I am referring to the amount of All Blacks that have played for the Crusaders for the majority of the last decade. And as for the Juvenile comment you might as well be calling a large portion of the professional NZ rugby commentators that name because it was them that came up with the name Canta-Blacks not me, and that name was created years ago. Juvenile? look in the mirror mate.

I think you may want to do a little more research and I think you'll find both the Bulls and Stormers have just as many if not more BOks in their teams as the Crusaders have All Blacks. I think your reference to them as the Canta Blacks is rather juvenile to say the least

Well that's how it should be. Whoever comes first through 6th overall should be the teams in the Finals. I think you will find one of the Stormers or Bulls will get home finals via top billing overall due to the relatively weak SA conference.

McCalman not in the top 33 even???

What happens if the Bulls and Stormers finish 1 and 2 every year? Or indeed if any country gets constant home field advantage?

Beale not even in the Wallabies 22 ??? You're joking !! He was one of the main reasons for the late season revival - either you don't know your Rugby or you have another agenda.

They are referred to as the Canta-blacks because throughout the last 7/8 years they have had a surplus of All blacks, So much so that hey have All Blacks sitting on the bench. This year alone they have signed 2 set-to-be All blacks in Sonny Bill Williams and Robby Fruen and have also brought on board a guaranteed superstar in the making Israel Dagg. The All Blacks are mainly comprised of Crusaders, a wee bit of Canes & Blues and a sprinkling of Highlanders & Chiefs. The Bulls and Stormers make up a large part of the Springboks together, nowhere near the Crusaders one team dominance of the All Blacks. So it would be pretty stupid to call them Spring Bulls and Storm boks.

Im gonna write some "Absurdly Early Predictions" on my blog and post some here. But I agree with you about the Force. I think they have a chance to come 1 or 2 in our conference this year. They have a semi reliable fly-half in Ripia. Obviously not the best in the comp but much better than the laughing stock of people paraded through that position last year. They did very well despite that major problem in personel last year I though. This year they have Pocock, Hodgeson and McCalman in the forwards with Sharpe (who realistically might get a few games off with a view to the WC) which makes a great pack. Also Richard Brown (Australias 4th best number 8? Hehe) is decent at Super rugby level. I wonder if McCalman will play 8 and Brown benched or if theyll slot him in second row as was suggested in the article?

To be honest I strongly disagree. Finals placings should be decided on final standings. If the next three can be worked out across all conferences so should the top three.

McGee, great work, research and conclusions. I particularly liked listing the 30. it gives a great perspective. keep up the good work!!!!!

I have to question why you refer to Canterbury as the Canta Blacks yet you do not refer to the Storm Boks or Spring Bulls as such. Both the aforementioned SA teams make up the large portion of the Springboks more so than the Crusaders do the All Blacks I believe.

There's bound to be arguments about the relative strengths of the conferences. If two teams were to dominate a weaker conference, then people would start complaining about the seeding system if they both received home field advantage. The only fair system is to give the three conference winners the top seeds even if a runner-up looks stronger than the other two conference winners. The incentive in the Super 15 should be to win your conference (as opposed to making the top four at present.) The idea is to generate competition between the domestic sides to earn the number one spot, I believe, and if you were close enough you'll probably be rewarded with a finals berth. The incentive for the third placed team in any given conference is to improve upon that finish the next year. It's doubtful that any third placed team will push for the 6th seed or narrowly miss out. My concern remains tanking. If a South African side finishes 3rd and an Australian side finishes 4, if I'm a New Zealand side I'd rather finish 6th than 5th, but as with any scenarios we can think of, they'd have to be more than a coincidence for the seeding system to change. Just because a conference is strong one year doesn't mean it will continue over the length of the five year conference, etc.

Now this is where I disagree OJ, A side could finish 7th simply because we have to accommodate the highest winner from a conference. Whilst unlikely it is a possibility. Also why should the second placed team in a conference have to play away to a team who won a conference but had a poorer season. Whilst I'm not against conferences having an automatic qualifier altogether I do believe that the seasons points tally should dictate where the finals are played. So if it ended like the below 1.Storm 2.Hurricanes 3.Blues 4. Rebels 5.Tahs 6. Stormers The Blues should gain the home final over and above the Rebels who still qualify. It's pity finals and pity finals placement at it's best and a higher performing team from another conference is not only likely to miss out on a home final but also possibly a finals berth. I do not see how this can be good for rugby.

I suppose you can't really argue with any of that, but it doesn't take into account the surprise package, which every season has. Mine would be the Force. It's a big "if", but if they can stave off the injuries that curtailed their campaign last time around, they have the bones of a squad that could cause a lot of problems. I think they will become very tough to beat at home and with one of the top three back rows in the comp, they could go on a bit of a run. My dark horses for the Championship are the Sharks, especially as they've improved their inside backs with the additions of Potgieter and Bosman and the uber-talented Lambie with another year under his belt.

My Predictions for All conferences AUS: Waratahs, Reds, Brumbies, Force, Rebels *The excitement factor of the High flying reds wont be enough to overcome the Wallaby-laden Tahs, the Brumbies will show glimpses of thier successful past but will continue to wallow in mediocrity, the Force will continue in their stuttering fashion and the Rebels will have a tough time gaining a foothold like every new team in their inagural year. NZ: Crusaders, Hurricanes, Blues, Highlanders, Chiefs *The Canta-blacks will continue their dominance by sheer player power despite the best efforts of the frustrated canes, The Blues through pieces of certain individual's brilliance will destroy some teams and then get pummelled the following week, The Highlanders will enjoy a revival brought on by a new and experienced coaching panel and a mixture of new-exciting players and experienced veterans and the Chiefs will continue to slip due to lack of player confidence and support from their fan base. SA: Stormers, Bulls, Sharks, Cheetahs, Lions *The Stormers will continue their rise to power at the expense of an ageing Bulls side, the Sharks will have eliminated the mistakes that plagued them in the last season but will be unfortunatley be the meat in the SA sandwich wedged between two power houses and two strugglers, the Cheetahs will play an exciting brand of rugby but due to lack of big names will continue to struggle and the Lions despite their best efforts will be duking it out with the Rebels for last spot on the complete Super 15 table, expect them to win 1 or 2 games this season. ***Predicting the 6 teams to make the semi-finals is nigh impossible due to the new system so I won't even go there.

Gerrard is in top form in Japan this season. He led NTT to their first win in the top flight over the weekend. From the paper: "The 27-year-old, who has won 23 caps for Australia, created NTT's first try, slotted over a drop goal from all of 45 meters, and scored a superb individual try in the 54th minute before being forced from the field in the 63rd minute with what appeared to be a hamstring injury."

I totally agree with Cizzy Rascal The Highlander have had a major overhaul and things are looking very good for the perennial strugglers. They had a very good team this year but blantantley lacked leadership Out of all the coaches in NZ Jamie Joseph would be the most experienced. *You have Blackadder for the Crusaders and under his watch his star studded side only just managed to scrape into the semis this year. *Hammet the new coach for the Hurricanes who has no head coaching experience and only got the job because he has been part of the successful Crusaders setup *Lam for Auckland who has a team full of stars that cant put together consistant performances and was very lucky to keep his job after a review (His assistant took the fall) *Foster for the Chiefs and we all know how the Chiefs fell to pieces this year. *Joseph is a very respected coach who coached the NZ Moari during there undefeated run this year and has consistantly taken Wellington to the finals of the NPC and since his departure Wellington have fallen to pieces. The Highlanders have basically signed the next best number 10 in NZ in Colin Slade (I think Cruden was more of a experiment for Henry & co than a dead set back up to Daniel Carter) And they have signed a plethora of up and coming stars. Southland who are half of the Highlanders franchise are the best team in the NZ NPC at the moment (yes even better than Canterbury) and their coach (Culhane) is going to be Jamies assistant. I dont see them making the coming semis but I can see them there abouts and I definitely dont see them as strugglers next year, Hell even over the last few years they have never been easy beats, we all saw how they dismantled the Waratahs this year and had an epic battle with the high flying Reds (which I think was one of the best games of the year and that personal observation doesnt have any relation to the years biggest brawl) Their region has also invested heavily in the team building a 300 Million dollar roofed stadium to house the Highlanders. Expect a few suprises from this team. Rememeber everyone wrote off the reds this year like every year and they ended up being Oz's 2nd best team.