Dragons defence or Roosters attack?

It will be another case of attack versus defence as the Roosters clash against the Dragons for the right to be crowned NRL premiers for season 2010.

What role will the following statistics play in determining which side will win this year’s grand final?

Firstly, let’s analyse the disciplined and methodical approach of the Dragons:

– The Dragons make the least errors of any side in the NRL, averaging just 10 a match. Their risk free style demonstrates the fact that Wayne Bennett’s men will not beat themselves, and come the grand final, this will prove critical against the more flamboyant Roosters.

– Having conceded an average of just 12 points a match this season, the Dragons are the NRL’s most stingy team. The communication between their forwards and backs is a key factor on why the Dragons are so cohesive and comfortable without the football.

– The Dragons also rank first in linebreaks conceded, with just 3.2 breaks conceded a game. The likes of Dean Young, Michael Weyman and Neville Costigan constantly ensure that order is maintained around the ruck area, and this will be vitally important against a Roosters side which loves to make inroads up the middle of the park.

– The Red V miss the fewest tackles of any team in the NRL, missing just 26.5 tackles a match on average this season. This is testament to a Dragons side which counts with arguably the best defensive players in the game. Players such as Beau Scott, Matt Cooper, Jeremy Smith, Dean Young, Darius Boyd, Nathan Fien and Matt Prior are all eighty minute players, and their endurance could prove vital in the Dragons bid to suck the life out of the Roosters attack.

– No doubt the yardage gain of the Dragons forwards will also be a key in keeping the Roosters at bay. Wayne Bennett’s men have averaged 1403 metres gained per match which is second only to the Canberra Raiders. The yardage gain provided by the likes of Costigan, Boyd, Weyman, Saffy, Smith, Creagh and Prior ensures that the Dragons have the capabilities of playing the game at the Roosters end of the field.

– The Dragons ability to constantly get out of trouble has a lot to do with a pack that can break the line. The minor premiers only trail the Bulldogs and Broncos in tackle breaks this season, amassing 38.7 a match.

Indeed the Roosters will have their work cut out trying to breach the Dragons defensive wall. But as the following statistics will show, Brian Smith’s men possess the arsenal necessary to break down their opposition and cause the upset.

– The Roosters have averaged 24 points per game this season, a record bettered only by the Rabbitohs and the Panthers. If the Roosters forwards can lay a suitable platform, halves Todd Carney and Mitchell Pearce will prove very difficult to handle for a Dragons defence which can become vulnerable when behind on the scoreboard.

– The Roosters also average 5.3 line breaks a match which is second only to the Rabbitohs. The likes of Carney, Pearce, Friend, Perrett, Anasta, Kenny Dowall and Minichiello have become masters of stealing yardage out of dummy half. If they can make the Dragons retreat in defence, the Roosters are more than capable of turning line break opportunities into points.

– Brian Smith’s men rank forth in the NRL for offloads, producing 13 a match on average. Forwards such as Frank-Paul Nuuausala, Daniel Conn, Nate Myles and Jason Ryles will be critical in producing the second phase play necessary which will allow the likes of Carney, Pearce and Anasta to create havoc on the edges.

– Although the performances of Carney, Pearce and Anasta will prove vital to the Roosters grand final chances, spare a thought for Kiwi centre Shaun Kenny Dowall. The Test star is the NRL’s joint leading tryscorer with 21 tries, and is second only to Josh Dugan in tackle breaks made with 169 next to his name. Although he has had a quite finals series, expect Kenny Dowall to really put his best foot forward against Dragons centre Matt Cooper.

So who will win?

Much will depend on which team scores first points. If the Dragons can hit the lead early, the Roosters will find it increasingly difficult to breach a defensive wall that has conceded only 12 points a match.

However, if the Roosters can post an early try, the Dragons will open up in defence and the likes of Carney, Pearce and Anasta will be able to orchestrate the plays necessary to score points at a rapid rate.

The penalty count in this game will be crucial for the Roosters. Brian Smith’s men have been notorious for giving away penalties, and they can ill-afford to give the Dragons an arm chair ride to the tryline.

Indeed the Roosters have been guilty at times of overplaying their hand in critical moments. In the round 22 fixture against the Dragons at the SCG, Brian Smith’s men took an early 6 nil lead, only to give it up late in the first half thanks to a high error count.

Despite their inability to keep possession in that fixture, the Roosters only ended up losing 19-12, raising concerns about the Dragons try scoring ability.

If the Roosters can respect possession like they did against the Titans last week, one feels they have enough points in them to win their first premiership since 2002.