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For southern hemisphere teams, there are two clear blocks of international rugby matches to be played before the World Cup champions are crowned next year: the November tour ahead and next year’s Tri Nations.
The traditional end of year tours have been a welcome bookend to the international rugby season for southern hemisphere fans. After a regular diet of Tri Nations rugby, the northern tours offer a welcome variety of venues, teams, fans and staying up into the early hours of Sunday morning to follow teams live. It’s like a prep school World Cup.
All the major rugby playing nations in the IRB top nine rankings will be on display in November. The path to World Cup glory begins in earnest next month for one of these sides in part one of this trilogy – The Fellowship of the Cup.
The southern hemisphere sides have had a full domestic season of playing under the new interpretations and are expected to have an edge over their counterparts still coming up to speed. Is that necessarily correct and true?
Forgetting New Zealand for the moment, who are ahead of every team at present, reviewing performances of the Springboks and Wallabies this season shows the Boks as a team stuck between playing two contrasting styles and doing neither one justice for themselves and their fans.
There are rumours of friction between the coaches and the body language of players during matches, clearly speak of an unhappy team. There are fears that senior players are in desperate need of a break and are struggling to maintain their normal levels of form. However the pressure of recording wins on the board after a disastrous Tri Nations campaign is forcing Peter de Villiers hand in selecting them to tour.
Until the Boks decide exactly how they want to play the game, select the correct personnel to implement it they are vulnerable to being upset by either of Ireland, Wales and England.
Australia is a dynamic team with enough skill, speed and talent to score points heavily against the opposition. However their defensive lapses, means they also leak points heavily to their opposition. There are still concerns about their mental fortitude and ruthlessness in closing out a game when in the lead. Their tight five will always be seen as a vulnerable area to be directly attacked from bigger packs and the Wallabies won’t want to get bogged down in a game with little continuity and frequent setpieces.
The selection of debutant Van Humphries may well be as inspired a choice as Tom Donnelly was for NZ last year and allow Nathan Sharpe to focus on his own game and not others. In a forward pack that is light on experience, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Van Humphries established in the Wallaby second row and a member of the leadership group Wallaby fans hear about so often but see little evidence of during a match.
Accuracy and concentration for the full 80 minutes is the key to their success on this tour, anything less will see them vulnerable to second half comebacks that have been their Achilles heel all season.
NZ, England and France pose the biggest threats to their aspirations for shaking off the chokers tag with Wales another potential banana peel.
Argentina is for the most part a relatively unknown quantity. There is little information about current player form apart from their top players contracted to European clubs. They did lose at home to Scotland earlier in the year which was a great surprise.
Their match against France will be a bruising encounter as usual and the French will hope they suffer no serious injuries with their match against the Wallabies the following week. From the heady days of 2007 when they enjoyed their highest ever world ranking and first time World Cup semi-finalists, they’ve dropped down the world rankings and will want to prove that 2007 was no fluke.
New Zealand will want to continue their hot streak of form and prove to themselves and doubters they still have improvements left in their game and can remain ahead of the field. The selection of Sonny Bill Williams will no doubt act as a lightning rod for the Fleet St press when they arrive in the UK and a third Grand Slam tour is in the offering again.
Although much interest is focused on the new boy, it will be the two old heads Carter and McCaw who will more likely attract the headlines if the All Blacks cut another swathe through the home unions. Finding answers to the eternal question of who will replace either of them if injured will hopefully be resolved or at the very least confirmed from within the squad, otherwise the search continues.
Other questions about the development and improvement of some of the less experienced tight five forwards, eg the Franks brothers, John Afoa, Anthony Boric, Sam Whitelock and Hika Elliott against their northern opponents will provide a good yardstick for next year.
With the likes of Ali Williams, Neemia Tialata, Corey Flynn and Jason Eaton still in the frame for selection, they can’t afford to ease off. New Zealand’s coaches need only look at the Springboks to see how fortunes can change very quickly in the space of twelve months, when you’re king of the hill.
For fans with little exposure to the northern rugby competitions, it’s a chance to see again the talent we know too little about, playing on their home turf and hopefully injury free and in form. It’s one thing to read newspaper reports and another thing altogether to watch with your own eyes.
The new law interpretations from most reports have been embraced by the clubs and reflected in an increase of tries scored and scorelines more commonly found in Super rugby matches. The challenge is to transfer the game played domestically into the international arena but at least the intent is there as well as the talent.
I am looking forward to watching the likes of Brad Davies, Jamie Roberts, Lee Byrne, Ben Youngs, Ben Foden, Chris Ashton and Dan Cole play again.
Who knows what other faces will become household names for Roarers to discuss in four weeks time.
Join The Roar rugby editor Christy Doran, former Wallaby Matt Toomua and a cast of regular and special guests as they look at the biggest issues in the game on The Roar Rugby Podcast. If you’re looking for great odds on the next game check out Aussie bookmaker PlayUp. Chances are you’re about to lose. Set a deposit limit.