The rugby statistician par excellence, Matthew Alvarez, has sent me a couple of interesting statistics that may or may not throw light on the significance of the Wallabies 26 -24 victory over the All Blacks.
First: of the 73 Tests between Australia and New Zealand, the Hong Kong match was only the fifth time the Wallabies have won when the All Blacks have scored 20-points or more.
Second: the Test win, too, was only the 16th out of 61 Tests since 1996 (when the professional era started) that the Wallabies have won after being being behind at half-time.
Third: Adam Ashley-Cooper has now scored 6 tries in 14 Tests against New Zealand. David Campese (who else?) holds the record with 8 tries in 29 Tests and Matt Burke is second with 7 tries.
What do these statistics mean?
I once read that statistics are like bikinis: what they reveal is interesting but what they don’t reveal is vital.
Working backwards, the interesting aspect is that Ashley-Cooper has to be regarded as one of the Wallaby great backs. Why? Because he scores tries against the toughest opposition there is in world rugby, the All Blacks. As I wrote on Monday, that try he scored at Hong Kong from about 55m out was one of the great Wallaby solo tries of all time.
Coming from behind to win Tests, especially against the All Blacks, is an extremely difficult thing to do.
Greg Clark (a caller I like) gave the statistic on Saturday night on the Fox Sports commentary that the All Blacks have now won 80 of their last 83 Tests when they’ve been in front at half-time.
The problem with this splendid result, though, is that the Test was gifted to the Wallabies in the final minutes by Stephen Donald who played (in my reckoning, at least) the worst 20 minutes any All Black has ever played.
This is a big call, but he took the ball back into the forwards on the Wallaby tryline instead of drop-kicking an easy goal; he missed an easy penalty to give the All Blacks an 8-point lead with minutes of play left; he missed a tackle in the last frenetic minutes of the Wallaby attack; and gave away a penalty with a head-high tackle; and then he missed touch when the All Blacks got a turnover with only 37 seconds of play remaining.
I got a number of emails from irate New Zealanders, after the various euphoric posts on The Roar by Wallaby supporters pointing that the Test was a dead rubber, that the surface did not allow the All Blacks traction to impose their scrum power on the Wallaby pack and that there was an absence of ‘spark’ in the All Blacks loose forwards.
In other words, the Test loss as far as they were concerned had no significance other than “a young, immature Wallabies team” had a “moment of promise.”
On the other hand, before the Test I made the point that in 1990 the Wallabies won the third Test of a dead rubber against the All Blacks at Wellington and this victory set up a side that had been under the hammer from the All Blacks and rugby writers to win RWC 1999.
I’m writing a chapter, RWC 2007, for an updated version of my history How To Watch The Rugby World Cup (Penguin Books).
The Hong Kong Test result reminds me that in 2006 the Springboks had lost five Tests in a row to the All Blacks. They met in a dead rubber at Rustenburg.
If the Springboks lost this Test then Jake White was going to be axed, and along with him John Smit, Percy Mongomery and most of the experienced campaigners who pulled off the unexpected triumph for the Springboks in RWC 2007.
It’s history now that Andre Pretorius kicked a penalty from the touchline (shades of James O’Connor and his two conversions from the touchline) in the 78th minute of play to give the Springboks their narrow victory.
Of course, we will only know how significant or insignificant the Wallaby victory is at the end of RWC 2011.
My guess is that the victory is important for the Wallabies in that it has given a youngish side the self-confidence that comes from defeating a side that had recorded fifteen successive Test wins and ten in a row against the Wallabies.
My guess, too, is that the defeat could be important for the All Blacks.
There is a priviso here, and this is whether the All Blacks coaches have actually learned the lesson that came out of the loss. One of the lessons, obviously, is that Donald and Isaia Toeavo are not up to Test match rugby.
It’s time, too, for the plug to be pulled on Joe Rokocovo and Mils Miliaina.
Back to the Wallabies.
The Green and Gold website (a mine of useful information) has published a table showing the Australia-New Zealand points difference in their last eleven Tests. The first loss was a 29-point thrashing. Then in the next four Tests up to the retirement of George Smith the points differential was -4, -5, -6, -1.
Rocky Elsom’s first Bledisloe Cup Test as captain showed a points differential of -29. Then we’ve had -13, -21,10, -1 and +2.
You could argue from this that the last two Tests with the All Blacks assured of retaining the Bledisloe Cup were dead rubber affairs.
But before the Hong Kong Test, most of us made the point that Graham Henry had selected his strongest team and that he assured the New Zealand rugby public he wanted to keep the All Blacks boot on the throat of the Wallabies.
What we can be sure of is that the Wallabies have struggled to post back-to-back victories since Robbie Deans has become coach, even though the side is number two in the world rankings.
It may be that we will get a better indication of the significance from the way the Wallabies play against Wales.
A convincing win at Cardiff, with back-up victories for the rest of the tour, would suggest that Hong Kong is the tipping point for this Wallaby squad. A loss and questions will be asked of the Wallabies that are currently being asked of the All Blacks in the Test against England.
Peter Marks
Guest
We won't really know how important the Hong Kong win was until at least the end of the northern tours, when the two hemispheres have tested each other out fully. Even then, with the two halves of the globe on different cycles at this stage, it will be more about bragging rights than anything else. Certainly at this point, before the northern tour begins tonight, the Wallabies will have gained a lot from the HK win in terms of confidence, but they've yet to play consistent rugby for 80 minutes and really dominate quality opposition in consecutive games. If they are going to win the World Cup tournament they need to find that consistency. The fact that the ABs scored 24 unanswered points and that the Wallabies scrum seems not up to it at this stage must be cause for caution. And the reality is that the ABs' style of open rugby creates opportunities for the sort of thrilling counterattacks the Wallabies mounted. Because most northern teams play a more conservative, forward-oriented rugby, with lots of mauling, tactical kicking and high balls (welcome to 'old school' rugby Kurtley) the Wallabies will have to be far more controlled than we've seen them. For the All Blacks the loss was the one they (and their fans--and god, I know, I'm one) needed. The forwards as a group will benefit from the slow grind they'll have to endure in order to get on top (assuming that they can), and the backs will have to stick to the quickhanded rugby that serves them well and which they showed only in flashes last week. What does this all mean for the World Cup? A lot in terms of who's in and out (that's especially true for South Africa, and the ABs need to clean out the backs cupboard). But given that it's a knockout competition and--as both the Wallabies and the Al Blacks have shown at different times this year--anything can happen in 82 minutes, we won't know until . . . . .holds the trophy aloft.
Cattledog
Guest
Actually Parisien, I don't have any bolters in mind. I just think this new conference format is going to place man against man twice as often this season so there's going to be some interesting match ups, don't you think? Can't argue with your other points. Only hope Dingo keeps an open mind to someone who has shown increadible potential during the S15 season, if indeed there are any.
Parisien
Guest
I'd like to think you are right Cattledog, and injuries may indeed stir things up again, but given the comments Deans himself made before the tour, I think he really wants now to develop continuity, team experience and cohesion. Given his team and bench selections, I think he has lined up three for every position and as it takes him about a season to change his mind I can't see too many changes from what we've seen so far. For several players still under scrutiny this tour might well be decisive for them, and yet they are not all guaranteed game time... I don't know how Deans can form his conclusions if he doesn't test them first at the highest level: 4, 6, 7, and 12 being the positions that I suspect he is still considering. I guess I'm just being anxious and impatient about the players outside of the 22 getting enough test exposure over the next months. Anyway, I'd be interested to hear what couple of bolters you might be thinking of.
Parisien
Guest
I don't know about the greatest but he is definitely up there with Ken Catchpole, Mark Ella, Tim Horan, and John Eales as being an exceptional player and candidate for an all -time world team.
the woodster
Guest
the woodster says.. ofcourse it meant something it meant as much as Henry is the coach and 'boss' of this ABs team, he was able to reflect and duplicate the respect given to him by the players by choosing the same line up that got them through the tri nations even though he could of used this opportunity to really throw something new and dynamic at the wollabies. henry has learnt from the past and knows in order to be the best u must be constantly pushing the boundaries and evolving u cant rest on your laurels or be complacent about how good things are going, because he will be the first to cry mommy if they fail to do this. NZ has the best players best coaches and best environment to build champion teams and they prove this fact every year but since 1987 that elusive world cup has always been out of reach,but for how long? these games are a means to a hopefully happy ending for the ABs and everyone in nz including the 3 supposedly wise men know it.
Mungehead
Guest
Far too much inaccurate kicking. Far too many kicks out on the full for that matter. How many was it, five? More? I lost count. The worst was that attempted cross-kick. A number ten can't afford to do that, not even given the conditions. Comparatively, Brett's kicking game was the best I've ever seen it. I've been critical of Brett in the past, and one swallow doesn't make a summer, but I'll certainly be watching him closely over the coming super-15 season.
Cattledog
Guest
Hi Parisien. Hope that's not the case. Whilst I'm sure the core of the squad is in place, there's a tremendous amount of rugby between now and the RWC kick off. There could well be some bolters from the Super 15 that can't be ignored and tested in the 3N etc. I certainly hope the squad isn't finalised until a week or so before they depart for NZ. I'm sure we haven't seen the last of the injury woes as well and I will bet my bottom dollar there will be a couple in there who at the moment, aren't even on the radar!
MattyP
Guest
Would have been if he learned how to tackle.
Sammo
Guest
Bayboys view is definitley a minority view.
Parisien
Guest
Tommy, I think Matt Toomua will be looked at post WRC2011 now. I think Deans has his squad and back-ups mostly sorted and won't be blooding any more new guys. He may bring back previous test players coming back: Horwill, Vickerman, TPN, Palu, Ioane but thats it. My concern was just that the back-up players for key positions get tested out at the highest level some time between now and next october!
Vaughan
Guest
The big difference between NZ and Oz in rugby union, is we have plenty to choose from back home. NZers will always be the ABs biggest critic. It goes with the territory of being the most consistent rugby union side in the world
Parisien
Guest
Thanks, I agree. I just want to see those guys tested at international test level to be sure.
Remy
Guest
Australia is and has been in a rebuilding phase for years, Deans inherited a team of egotistical ancients with little future prospects. The previous coach the "hobgoblin" eddie jones nurtured no-one to replace them noobooody. So with a piss poor bag of test ready players Deans had to start form scratch and he's the best man for the job after all when he was assistant Allblack coach to Mitchem they spotted Mccaw, Muliaina and others. So I have no doubts this young talented walllaby side will be a force to reckon with in the future, in time for the world cup I'm not sure. So I'll cut the Wallabies and Deans some slack it's deserved slack they're playing the Ab's and Bok's all the time, the best teams in the world. Now the win in HK is a big jump in the upward curb its broken a couple of mindf%%ck chains 10 games in a row is a big "HOOdoo" and is a well deserved win over a team that hasn't lost in a while. So props to them, however the Ab's loss is not going to make them weaker. Hopefully HOPEFULLY Toe'ava, Rokcoco and Donald will be sent home being they were a large reason we lost. As they did not add anyting "extra" to the team when there are stacks of talent that can make a difference sitting in NZ. I'm not moaning for the loss just hoping Henry Is'nt going to give them their 10th chance when more explosive potential is given none.
TommyM
Guest
Hodgson was clearly the best 7 after Pocock this year, maybe even better! He played much of the season for the Force there while Pocock was injured. Agree on Higginbotham- he was a standout in the S14 and brings real speed and aggression. Brown's a good toiler, but it would defo be worth giving Higs a shot in a test (on for Elsom if we're far enough ahead). I like Matt Toomua as a backup 10. Has the complete skills package and controls the game in a mould very similar to Carter. And he's only also only 20 I think!
TommyM
Guest
REally? I though Slade was excellent (except his goal-kicking, but the wind was atrocious). Brett was certainly very good when he came on too.
TommyM
Guest
Cooper smashed McCaw earlier in the game as well (I only noticed this on watching the game again) and had a look of real anger in his eyes to me... I actually wonder if there was more to it than just petulant bad-sportmanship. Perhaps he was defending his good mate Bam-Bam from the earlier incidents, or perhaps McCaw had dropped some comment about his incredibly 'light hands' earlier in the game ;-)
ohtani's jacket
Guest
He was on for half an hour and made two major defensive errors.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
Today's game was like little league compared to last weekend's Bledisloe Test.
ohtani's jacket
Guest
I think Deans should keep playing the same side. They're young guys and they'll benefit from the experience of playing together. If you start making too many changes, things become disjointed and the bench guys look worse for it. I would pick guys who impress in the midweek games, but I'd be selective about it.
TommyM
Guest
Slade has been consistently excellent in every game I've ever seen him play I must say (including today leading Canterbury to the ITM Cup win). Looks like a young Mehrtens in the making to me.