England face a make-or-break showdown with Wales on Friday in a collision between the age-old rivals that is likely to define the Six Nations hopes of both teams.
Despite being the bookmakers’ favourites, England enter the 2011 tournament knowing that it is eight long years since they were last crowned champions, when Martin Johnson led the team to a grand slam in 2003.
After an encouraging past 12 months, which included home-and-away victories over Australia and the emergence of a new generation of promising youngsters, England’s fortunes appear to be on the up.
A comprehensive defeat to South Africa in the last of their November internationals, however, came as a sobering reminder that England under Johnson’s management remain a work in progress.
That defeat to the Springboks has left Johnson and England at the crossroads as they prepare to embark on their quest for Six Nations glory.
Win convincingly at the Millennium Stadium on Friday and England will carry precious momentum into their next three fixtures – all at Twickenham – before their championship concludes against Ireland in Dublin.
Defeat, however, against a Welsh side which has lost six of its last seven matches, will be viewed as a huge setback to England as they build towards this year’s World Cup in New Zealand.
Johnson has challenged his side to feed off the anti-English sentiment in Cardiff, where they have not won since 2003.
“Being an Englishman in Cardiff on that weekend means you aren’t the most popular, which is great. I’d rather have that than polite indifference,” Johnson said this week.
“(Wales) want to beat England at rugby – that is not a secret and we want to win down there. It is a good occasion. We have to be ready when we do go and play. You want to play in the big games.”
Johnson’s preparations have been disrupted by injuries to three key forwards – lock Courtney Lawes, blindside flanker Tom Croft and captain Lewis Moody.
Lawes has been replaced by Louis Deacon, while Northampton’s Tom Wood will make his debut in place of Croft.
Moody’s position will be taken by Stade Francais loose forward James Haskell, while the captaincy goes to centre Mike Tindall, the only member of the starting XV who has experienced an English victory in Cardiff.
“Mike’s a natural leader with his knowledge of the game and the way he marshals the backline. It was natural for him to step in,” Johnson said.
England’s injury problems pale in comparison to Wales, whose list of casualties include both first choice props, Adam Jones and Gethin Jenkins.
Wales coach Warren Gatland has also been deprived of the services of Leigh Halfpenny, George North, Tom Shanklin, Andrew Bishop and Richie Rees.
Gatland, who stoked English fires last week with a verbal assault on hooker Dylan Hartley, acknowledged that the stakes were high for both sides.
“If you win this game you get off to a good start, which breeds confidence and breeds momentum,” Gatland said.
Wales have made seven changes to the side which was beaten by New Zealand in their final autumn series match last year, plus a positional switch that sees James Hook shifted to fullback.
Frank O'Keeffe
Guest
Am I alone in thinking Toby Flood is a pretty solid five-eighth? He well outperformed Quade Cooper last year, and I think he's a really solid player. Right now Jonny Wilkinson can't get (and shouldn't get) a look into the English side. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying he's close to as good as Carter ala 2005-2007 or Wilkinson ala 2002-2003, or even Carter ala now. But he controls the game well. I like how he attacks the advantage line and runs good angles too. He knocks over a few penalties too. If I was picking a British Lions side for right now, I'd pick him over the overrated Welsh five-eighths easily. I think most English fans quietly rate Flood. He ticks a lot of boxes: solid kicking game from hand and off the tee, has a eye for a gap and (without ever being quite Usian Bolt) has enough gas to exploit those he spots, mixes it up well and stands flat enough to exploit the quick ball he gets from Youngs. Both halfbacks being club mates is a nice bonus too. Wilko's a nice option to have off the bench to shore up a winning position like he did last night (not so sure I'd fancy him to conjure up a win from a losing position now) but Flood's rightly ahead on merit.
Ben S
Roar Guru
Not happy with the selection of Hartley and Deacon. Think ignoring Thompson and Shaw is a missed opportunity to assert an initial forward dominance. Plus Deacon just doesn't have the same mobility and physicality as Lawes or Shaw. I think the lineout issue has been exaggerated by the media, although the English lineout has been poor since the departure of Borthwick it's not like the Welsh lineout is overly competitive, especially with Jon Thomas not starting. Matthew Rees is certainly prone to the odd wide dart too. Similarly, I'd be surprised if the scrummage is as one-sided as the media are suggesting it will be. We all know that Dan Cole is a great scrummager, but Sheridan is an out and out gym player who struggles against technical props, and whilst I don't think Mitchell will present a problem for Sheridan, I think Rees and Paul James will shore up the set piece for Wales. I have an inkling that the English back row is more powerful than the Welsh, but whether or not playing Haskell and Wood as left and right flankers works against Warburton will arguably be the key to the victory. I'd like to see Haskell and Easter making inroads and the back three playing off them. So then we come to the backs... who rely on the pack. If England go forward then I'd take England to win. Hook is not a great defensive full back and Stephen Jones has been leading his inside backs down blind alleys for far too long now. The key will be containing Jamie Roberts. If he gets his off-loading game going then Wales will be hard to contain. Tough one to call, but Wales have to be the favourites at home.
King of the Gorgonites
Roar Guru
sorry, by record i mean IQ2 on foxtel.
Mart
Guest
King - how do you set your recorder for ESPN ?!? My TV has to be tuned (station) to ESPN to record it so may as well watch it live !!!
katzilla
Roar Guru
About time we had some rugby, was starting to think it no longer existed. That Injury list is horrible, especially in the forwards, I think England will show through with a bit more depth though. Excited to see how both teams approach this game, hopefully neither has reneged on last years promise of quick enterprising rugby and extensive ball use.
King of the Gorgonites
Roar Guru
its on normal ESPN as well. I set out the recorder last night for all 3 of the weekends games.
The Phantom
Guest
Last year they were only shown live in ESPN HD do you know if it is the same this year, or can those of us with no access to the HD channels watch the six nations live?
King of the Gorgonites
Roar Guru
Thats right, ESPN. its great that all the 6 nations will be on fox. not setanta, so will be able to watch and not pay anything extra. wales by 8
Blue Sue
Guest
Its live at 6 30 am tomorrow morning on ESPN on Foxtel and then replayed twice during the day. Other games are live on Sunday morning
Rusty
Roar Guru
due to the vagaries of Foxtel - anyone know how to watch this?