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Collingwood are coming off a year in which they finished top of the ladder for the first time since 1977 and won their first premiership since 1990. However, no matter how difficult breaking droughts may be, it doesn’t make the task of backing up a year later any easier – just ask Sydney and Geelong.
It’s fair to say Mick Malthouse has one last big challenge ahead of him in his final season as the Pies’ senior coach. But can his side rise to that challenge?
Well, improvement at the club last year came from three main sources: superb recruiting, significant improvement from a number of previously-unheralded players, and the revolutionary “Mick’s box” game plan.
Of these three areas, only one looks like having a similar impact in 2011.
Thanks to the luring of Chris Tarrant back from Fremantle and the landing of WAFL sensation (and former Richmond player) Andrew Krakouer, the Pies look set to continue their great recruiting run, which last year saw Darren Jolly and Luke Ball arrive at the club.
With no Simon Prestigiacomo due to retirement and no Nathan Brown due to a season-ending knee injury, Tarrant – who was moulded into a fine key defender at Freo – is a perfect addition. Krakouer, meanwhile, not only won last year’s Sandover Medal by eight votes, his 40 touches and four goals had him best on ground in Swan District’s one-point grand final win – he’ll be more than handy for Collingwood.
Outside this area, it’s hard to see the same number of breakout years we saw last year.
Sharrod Wellingham, Steele Sidebottom, Dayne Beams, Ben Reid, Chris Dawes, Nathan Brown, Leigh Brown and Jarryd Blair all blossomed at the perfect time in 2010. While many of these players have improvement ahead of them, a repetition of what occurred last year – so many players rising to the occasion over the course of the season – won’t happen.
Worryingly, the Pies only had one player make their debut last year – easily the lowest number in the competition – however perhaps that’s a problem more likely to affect Nathan Buckley in coming years than Malthouse this year.
Likewise, the gap between Collingwood and the rest of the competition created by Mick’s box won’t be so large this year.
In 2010, through pushing numbers to their half of the ground, the Pies generated 30.5 turnovers in their forward half per game (5.2 more than any other team). They also scored a whopping 43.8 points from these turnovers (11.8 more than any other team).
Given other clubs have had a whole off-season to learn from and adapt to Collingwood’s game plan, the advantage held last year could be wiped. Certainly, we’ve seen in recent years how the entire competition was able to adapt to “Clarko’s Cluster” following Hawthorn’s 2008 premiership and St Kilda’s renowned “frontal pressure” after their strong 2009 season.
All this is not to say the Pies will come crashing down to Earth this year. Far from it. What this does illustrate, though, is that winning to premiership won’t be the “cakewalk” some are anticipating.
The Pies do have plenty going for them. They seem to have the perfect blend of youth and experience – last year’s team was the youngest premiership side since 1978, yet the Pies have been in every finals series since 2006.
Their backline stood up well last year and always seemed to have numbers. Throw in Tarrant and the confidence players like Ben Reid will get from winning a premiership and another solid year is to be expected.
Their midfield may be the target of Kevin Sheedy and GWS, but assuming that won’t be a distraction, it’s hard not to see the likes of Dane Swan, Scott Pendlebury and company picking up where they left off. In addition, the much-hyped midfield depth and rotation capabilities should be of even more benefit this year with changes to the interchange system.
The forward line is an area which should be watched closely. While the Pies weren’t punished for their inaccurate kicking at the business end of last season, they mightn’t be so lucky this time around.
So far, though, so good. The Pies have cruised into the NAB Cup final and aren’t showing any signs of having dropped off.
The opportunity is there for other teams to close the gap, that much can’t be denied. However, those other teams all have plenty of question marks of their own hanging over their heads.
Right now, it’s hard to bet against the Pies.